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The bottom-pairing merry-go-round; cap calculations for the "core three"

October 13, 2017, 5:42 PM ET [81 Comments]
Mike Augello
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The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to rebound from their first loss of the season in Montreal on Saturday, as they will face the Canadiens at the Bell Centre in their first Atlantic Division matchup of the season.

Rookie blueliner Calle Rosen struggled in the 6-3 loss to New Jersey on Wednesday, and at the Leafs practice facility in Etobicoke, ON on Friday, Connor Carrick replaced the 23-year-old Swede on the bottom pairing with Andreas Borgman.

Rosen skated alongside veteran Roman Polak, which likely means that he will sit against the Habs, who have lost three straight and scored only four goals in four games thus far.

“(The bottom pairing) has to be better as well, we’ve got to fix it.” Babcock said at the MasterCard Centre. “A huge part of that is confidence. You can’t give out confidence, but you help guys earn it by getting better each and every day, and we’ve got to do a better job in that area.”

Through four games, Rosen and Borgman have played three games and Carrick has played twice, which appears to reflect the club still trying to evaluate the field of candidates from training camp.

With the ability to send either Swede to the American Hockey League because they are waiver exempt, it is possible that Borgman, Rosen and rookie Travis Dermott could be given looks over the first half of the season to determine how the organization will proceed in terms of their defense as the post-season approaches.

If the club believes that their internal candidates are good enough and making progress, Leafs GM Lou Lamoriello may maintain the status quo at the trade deadline, but if Toronto continues to have defensive concerns deep into the regular season, it is probable that they will explore trade options as the NHL trade deadline approaches.

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The central concern for the Toronto Maple Leafs over the next 18 months will be getting their “core three” (William Nylander, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner) signed to contract extensions and how much it will cost.

According to TSN’s Darren Dreger, the amount of Matthews new deal could eclipse Connor McDavid’s $12.5 Million AAV on the new contract signed this summer.

McDavid’s salary on his eight-year, $100 Million deal constitutes 16.6% of the $75 Million cap and there are expectations that the cap amount could go up in 2018 to $77 Million. Based on the same percentage on an increased cap, the Leafs could be looking at a cap hit of $12.7 to $12.8 Million.

What is not taken into consideration is that McDavid had a 100-point season and won the Hart Trophy in his sophomore season and it is unknown how Matthews will do in his second season after winning the Calder Trophy with 40 goals and 29 assists.

Insider Pierre LeBrun indicates that the deal to likely get done first will be that of Nylander, who is a restricted free agent at the end of this season. Toronto and the 21-year-old’s representatives have discussed a new deal, but there has been no indication that the two sides are close.

Lamoriello was successful in getting GTA products Connor Brown and Zach Hyman, along with defenseman Nikita Zaitsev signed to multiyear contracts for team-friendly cap hits and that has to be factored in when determining what Toronto will be looking to get their youngsters signed to.

The year that Nylander has with Matthews will go a long way in determining what the Leafs are willing to sign the speedy winger for, but based on deals recently signed, such as Nikolaj Ehlers of the Winnipeg Jets (seven years, $42 Million), Alexander Wennberg of the Columbus Blue Jackets (six years, $29.4 Million) and David Pastrnak of the Boston Bruins (six years, $40 Million), Toronto will likely get him signed in the $6 to $7 Million per season range and not in excess of $7M that LeBrun indicated.

The potential of escalating salaries for Matthews, Marner and Nylander is the primary reason why the talk of re-signing James van Riemsdyk to a long-term extension is unlikely, even if the 28-year-old was willing to take a significant hometown discount.

With youngsters Kasperi Kapanen, Carl Grundstrom and Jeremy Bracco in the pipeline, who could possibly be ready to move up to the NHL while on their entry-level deals in the next 12-24 months, the Leafs will likely have to avail themselves of that inexpensive option instead of extending van Riemsdyk for eight years.

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