The lottery balls finally came up right for the Toronto Maple Leafs, as the club with the best odds entering the NHL Draft Lottery on Saturday will select first overall on June 24th at First Niagara Center in Buffalo.
The chance to add a potential first line center and franchise building block in Auston Matthews another sign of recent good fortune for Toronto, but would not have been possible if Team President Brendan Shanahan had not followed the direction that many fans have wanted to tear down the club that had made the post-season only once since 2004.
"Leaf fans have been so supportive of what we've set out and told them we were going to do." Shanahan said. "They needed some good news and while there is still a lot of work to be done, this was some good news for them and they deserve it."
Luck is a determining factor for Shanahan and the Leafs, who entered the CBC building in Toronto with one chance in five of getting the top selection and nearly 50% of selecting fourth, which would have added an excellent prospect as well.
Toronto had only one of the remaining 11 numbers (9.09%); lower than the odds Edmonton had 12 months ago in the lottery for Connor McDavid, but the number 13 came up for the Blue and White, who have the top selection for the first time since 1985.
Toronto is the first team to finish with the worst record to select first overall since 2010 (the Oilers chose Taylor Hall). Buffalo's two seasons finishing dead last yielded cornerstone forwards in second overall picks Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, who each scored over 20 goals in their rookie season.
The Leafs now have OHL Playoff scoring leader Mitch Marner and potentially Matthews to show for enduring the two dismal seasons.
While the opponents and critics of tearing down and bottoming out to get a high draft pick will continue to heap scorn and ridicule on clubs like the Buffalo Sabres and Maple Leafs, it is hard to dispute that the blueprint works.
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The potential addition of Matthews may effect how Leafs management approaches the summer, but according to Shanahan it will not alter the club's decisions on pursuing players in free agency.
"I really don't think that (getting the top pick) has an impact whether you're picking #1 or #4 on what you intend to do with free agency." Shanahan said. "We'll know when we get closer to free agency who is available, who fits into our plans and our vision and for us to get better."
Matthews will give Toronto a significant upgrade up the middle, joining William Nylander, Tyler Bozak and Nazem Kadri, but also gives GM Lou Lamoriello options entering the off-season.
Bozak could be swapped to address another area of need, while Nylander (who played the entire AHL season and his brief NHL stint at center) can move to the wing as head coach Mike Babcock said he would have done if the club was not short-handed at center in March.
It is quite possible that getting Matthews could improve the possibility of free agents Steven Stamkos and Jimmy Vesey signing with the Leafs. The main bone of contention regarding Stamkos coming to Toronto is wasting two or three prime years with a rebuilding Leafs club instead of a team closer to contention, but having Matthews as a potential one-two punch could be an enticing prospect to the Markham, ON native.
Shanahan pointed out that the top overall pick will be learning how to play in the NHL and that heaping expectations on an 18-year-old rookie could be detrimental. That could make it even more desirable for the organization to add a superstar like Stamkos to alleviate the pressure and provide a good role model.
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