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Teams like the Anaheim Ducks, Minnesota Wild and Chicago Blackhawks face the possibility of losing a valuable player in the upcoming expansion draft this June, but the Toronto Maple Leafs are in a much better place.
Each NHL club will lose one player to the new Las Vegas franchise, led by ex-Washington Capitals GM George McPhee. Their plan will likely be to select young players who have not had the opportunity with their existing clubs, and veterans who can make the Golden Knights competitive right away, but down the line can be moved for future assets.
The Maple Leafs benefit from a roster heavily populated with rookies (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Zach Hyman, Nikita Soshnikov and Nikita Zaitsev) who are exempt from needing to be on their protection list, but Toronto GM Lou Lamoriello still faces the possibility of losing a key player and not fulfilling the minimum exposure requirements for the draft.
Teams have the option of protecting seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender or eight skaters and one goaltender.
Each club also has to expose two forwards and one defenseman that are under contract for next season and has played 40 NHL games this season or 70 combined NHL games over the last two seasons, as well as a goaltender that is under contract or is an RFA that has received a qualifying offer after this season.
The 8-1 option is preferable for teams who want to protect four or more blueliners, but with the Leafs fairly thin on defense, it is probable they will opt for the 7-3-1 option.
One area where the Leafs will have to do some maneuvering is to meet the exposure requirements.
In goal, starter Frederik Andersen will be protected and Garret Sparks or Antoine Bibeau can be qualified. On defense, Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner and Connor Carrick are the trio likely to be sheltered. Martin Marincin (who signed a two-year deal last summer) meets the games played criteria and will be exposed.
Toronto is most vulnerable to losing someone of value or not meeting the exposure requirements up front.
Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, Connor Brown and minor leaguer Brendan Leipsic are are probable protectees, leaving two spots open for a group that includes Leo Komarov, Matt Martin, Kerby Rychel and Josh Leivo.
Exposing Leivo and/or Rychel would mean potentially losing a young forward (which is an area of depth for the Leafs organization), but would necessitate Toronto acquiring or signing players in the organization for another year to meet the games played requirement.
Minor leaguer Byron Froese and journeyman Ben Smith are free agents, but need only play 12 more NHL games to qualify. Veteran Brooks Laich has already reached the amount of games needed.
Exposing Komarov (under contract for another season at $2.95 Million) and Martin (signed for three more seasons at $2.5 Million) would fulfill the games played requirements, but would open up the possibility of losing players important to the development and leadership of the club.
Their salaries could be enough of a deterrent to prevent Las Vegas from selecting them, but does not eliminate the possibility of them being picked and flipped to another NHL team.
The landscape of who will be or not be exposed could change dramatically if Toronto makes any trades. A van Riemsdyk deal for a defenseman before the deadline or the expansion draft would make the Leafs protect their new blueliner (unless exempt) and expose Carrick.
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