Leafs prospect Mitch Marner celebrated his 19th birthday by scoring a goal and assist in a 4-1 London Knight win over the Niagara IceDogs in Game 1 of the OHL Championship at Budweiser Gardens on Thursday. It has been quite a week for Toronto’s 2015 fourth overall pick, who was named the recipient of the 2016 Red Tilson Trophy as the league’s Most Outstanding Player and leads the CHL in playoff scoring with 39 points.
With renewed hope and enthusiasm for the Maple Leafs after winning the NHL Draft Lottery last Saturday, a second straight 100 point season in the Ontario Hockey League and the option of playing in the American Hockey League due to their 20-year-old age limit, many believe that Marner will be in the lineup for the Leafs on opening night, but a number of factors could find the talented forward back in London for some or all of 2016-17 season.
1. Leafs Development Plan – Toronto backed up their talk regarding patience in player development this past season, keeping their youngsters with the AHL Marlies until after the trade deadline, including 2014 top pick William Nylander, who some thought was capable of playing in the NHL at the start of the year.
Marner is the youngest of the top five of the 2015 Draft class (Jack Eichel was born in October 1996, Connor McDavid, Dylan Strome and Noah Hanifin in January – March 1997) and is only four months older than presumptive 2016 top pick Auston Matthews. The argument that his staying in the OHL would stunt his growth or not be a challenge does not bear out.
Former Knights teammate Max Domi returned to the OHL at 19 years old, scored over 100 points and was one of Team Canada’s best players at the 2015 World Junior, so did 2014 second overall pick Sam Reinhart, who was not up for the NHL challenge at 19 and was sent back to Kootenay of the WHL after playing nine games for Buffalo. Reinhart also shined at the World Junior and returned to the Sabres for good in 2015, scoring 23 goals as a 20-year-old rookie last season.
2. Building up strength – The Knights potentially advancing to the Memorial Cup will provide Marner valuable experience, but a potential downside is the lack of preparation time it will give the 19-year-old to add weight and build muscle necessary for him to be strong enough to succeed in the NHL next season.
Nylander played half of the 2015 season in Sweden, played at the 2015 World Junior and the second half with the Marlies. Toronto was eliminated in the first round of the Calder Cup Playoffs last April and the 19-year-old had a full offseason to get stronger. Nylander came to camp at close to 190 lbs. Connor Brown improved his upper body strength during his three months on injured reserve with a broken ankle.
If the Knights advance to the Memorial Cup, they will be playing until the end of May, which would leave about three months to prepare for Leafs training camp. Marner is speedy and elusive and is quite adept at avoiding contact, but someone eventually will be able to lay the body on him at the NHL level and he will have to be physically prepared to absorb punishment to survive.
3. Playing Up The Middle – Many say that Marner has no challenge left for him in the OHL, especially if the Knights go on to win the Memorial Cup this season, but the challenge could be to move him to center for a full season, after playing the right side with Arizona prospect Christian Dvorak and 2016 prospect Matthew Tkachuk.
Dvorak will graduate to the Coyotes or their AHL affiliate next season and Marner could take his place up the middle, as well as play for Canada again at the 2017 World Junior in Toronto and Montreal.
4. Contract Ramifications – If you don’t think that the Maple Leafs are taking everything into account and looking years ahead when it comes to managing the salary cap, the case of Nylander at the end of the season is proof that they are.
The club baffled many by playing Nylander 23 games and thus burning the first year of his three-year entry-level deal. The explanation given was to not have him play more than 40 games and start the clock on unrestricted free agency, but also to stagger the expiration the end of Nylander’s deal so that it did not fall in the same year as Marner, which would have been the case if he had played less than 10 games and Marner made the Leafs next season.
With Matthews as the likely top pick and certain to make the Leafs in October, Toronto may not want his and Marner’s deals to both come up for restricted free agency in the summer of 2019.
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