Having built the 2014-15 Tampa Bay Lightning’s first two lines in two previous blogs, it’s time now to take a look at the team’s third line.
For those of you who haven’t been following this series, I’m releasing my ideal Lightning lineup piece by piece. Working with the assumption that Steven Stamkos, Valtteri Filppula, Tyler Johnson, and Brian Boyle will be the team’s four pivots, I am aiming to construct a lineup that can build on the team’s success from last year.
So far, this is what I’ve come up with:
Jonathan Drouin-Steven Stamkos-Ryan Callahan
Alex Killorn-Valtteri Filppula-Brett Connolly
Today, as mentioned, I’ll be building a third line. The Johnson line.
When deciding who to put on Filppula’s left side in the last blog, I took a look at some with-or-without-you numbers. Plenty of people wanted to see Ondrej Palat kept on that second line, where he was to end last season, but I went with Alex Killorn.
Here’s a quick refresher:
Where start to get a little bit clearer is when you take a look at Palat’s WOWY numbers with other players.
There’s one pair there that doesn’t look like the others. People remember Palat and Filppula working well together at the end of last season, but was it really the dynamic duo people, including me, thought it was? It looks to me like the team’s dynamic duo last year was Palat and Johnson. They made each other better, and by a significant amount.
Based on this, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that I’m going to slot Palat in on Johnson’s left. As noted in the previous blog, the two formed a great duo, which consistently outperformed the competition. Their time together most certainly helped each of them secure a nomination for the 2014 Calder Trophy.
That leaves one spot open. Realistically, there are three options to fill that void. I’m looking at J.T. Brown, Richard Panik, and Nikita Kucherov as candidates.
It’s hard to run a useful analysis of the WOWY numbers in this case, simply because neither Brown nor Kucherov played significant 5v5 minutes with either Johnson or Palat. And Panik’s campaign was so underwhelming that it becomes almost impossible to gauge what sort of performance he might have with Johnson and Palat with a fresh start.
What we do know is the following: Nikita Kucherov is waiver-exempt, which could spell trouble for the young scorer as he tries to secure a roster spot. J.T. Brown is an incredibly versatile player who was the recipient of some bad luck last year. Richard Panik had oodles of chemistry with Johnson and Palat down in the American Hockey League, but it failed to translate in ~200 minutes of 5v5 play last season.
I’m stuck. I don’t think there’s a right or wrong answer here.
From a hockey perspective, I think Kucherov likely makes the most sense. He’s an electric scorer who can create something out of nothing. He would give the line a little bit of flash, which would likely complement Palat and Johnson’s style nicely.
At the same time, I can’t help but think that Kucherov will find himself in the AHL due to his waiver-exempt status. Fair or not, this is just a numbers game. Tampa has a lot of forwards, and only a few spaces. Combine that with the fact that Jon Cooper often dressed 11 forwards and seven defensemen last year, and the picture becomes even more clouded for the young Russian.
I know I’ll take some heat for this, but Kucherov won’t be on my opening night roster. He probably deserves to be there, but the team has to make room. Let’s not forget that last year was his first year of pro hockey. More seasoning may not be a bad thing. It certainly paid off for guys like Palat and Johnson.
That leaves me with Panik and Brown.
I’m going to pick Richard Panik. Flame away, readers. Flame away.
The potential that trio showed in the American Hockey League was undeniably apparent. It was enough to get Panik on the roster last season, even when Brett Connolly likely deserved a spot. While things didn’t go right for him in 2013-14, he did go back down to the AHL for a stint and put up 11 points in 13 games. I like Panik on that third line because it adds some size and a bit of a power element.
By no means am I saying that I would stick with this line all year should things go south, but I do think that it’s worth testing out. If last year’s Richard Panik makes a return appearance this year, there’s an easy fix waiting in the wings.
Mike’s Third Line: Ondrej Palat-Tyler Johnson-Richard Panik
Post your third line in the comments section!
As always, thanks for reading.
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