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Would the Lightning be able to quiet Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane? That was the question on the mind of nearly every hockey fan prior to the start of the Stanley Cup Final. Through two games, an admittedly small sample size, the Bolts have been able to do it. And, perhaps surprisingly, the source of that shutdown prowess has been a mediocre Tampa third line that had been silent for so much of the postseason.
It’s not really blasphemous to suggest that Cedric Paquette and his third line pals were bad in the first three rounds of the playoffs. They were repeatedly caved in at even strength, and they struggled to create even a sniff of offense. The contrast between then and now is quite striking. Consider the third line’s possession numbers when compared to Kane and Toews so far in this series:
Now, it’s not as though Paquette, J.T. Brown, and Ryan Callahan have been Corsi world-beaters through two games in the series. Make no mistake – there’s room for improvement. But what’s different now compared to their previous performance is the fact that their matchup, in this case Kane and Toews, hasn’t been able to hem them in the defensive zone. Notice that the Chicago duo’s numbers are merely average? Those numbers are very un-Toews/Kane-like.
Another interesting thing is that, even as their possession numbers are slightly better than Paquette & Co.’s, neither Kane nor Toews has been able to get pucks on net with regularity when out on the ice. Their on-ice shots-for percentages, when compared to Tampa’s third line, are not good. The Lightning haven’t allowed them to get the puck to Ben Bishop:
So, Kane and Toews have average possession numbers and have been unable to get pucks on net. Maybe they are generating quality looks without testing Bishop, though? That’s not true, either. In fact, this is arguably the most shocking thing about the Toews/Kane/Paquette matchup. The Lightning’s below-average third line is out-chancing Chicago’s most creative offensive players by a fairly significant margin through two games:
It’s almost shocking to see this, considering just how bad Paquette & Co. were against the offensively challenged Montreal Canadiens and New York Rangers. How on earth have they been able to effectively manage two of the game’s biggest stars? It’s an unanswerable question. Clearly Joel Quenneville doesn’t have the answer, either, as he separated Kane and Toews midway through Game Two.
I’ve already casually mentioned that we’re dealing with a small sample size, but I’d really like to highlight that point before signing off. The purpose of this analysis isn’t to make any predictive claims, as that’s almost impossible to do when dealing with a two-game sample. Rather, I want to make note of how Toews and Kane need to be better than they’ve been. The Lightning’s shutdown trio hasn’t allowed Chicago’s game-breakers to be game-breakers yet. Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman deserve a lot of credit too, but this sort of defensive success doesnt happen without contributions from every guy on the ice. That has to be considered a positive for Tampa Bay, especially when you consider just how mediocre the line has been in the postseason. The Blackhawks are lucky to have forward depth that allows them to win even without those guys clicking; that's why they're the favorites, and it's also one big advantage they have over the Lightning.
For the record, and in conclusion, I don’t know or even think that this trend can continue. The Tampa third line isn't this good. So, yes, I expect that the two stars will break out soon, but it’s been pretty jaw-dropping to see their performance through two games nonetheless.
As always, thanks for reading.
Michael Stuart has been the Tampa Bay Lightning writer for HockeyBuzz since 2012. Visit his archive to read more or follow him on Twitter.
*All statistics cited in the blog are courtesy of War-On-Ice.com, a premier source for hockey analytics. Be sure to check them out!
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