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Carolina Hurricanes Blogger •
Yesterday I put up a bunch of over/under numbers for free agent defensemen for people to bandy about. The general consensus was that most of the players were worth less than these numbers. But the results were split about even in terms of whether people thought the guys would get more or less.
That is roughly how I see it. I think that the numbers were high in at least 4 if not 5 (Ohlund being the reasonable 1 if he takes a 2 year contract and does not push for 4). But at the same time, I find it hard to believe that the GMs will suddenly get smarter and unanimously avoid bidding wars this summer. My money says that at least 3 of the 5 go for more than my over/under number even if they are high.
So today, we turn to the forwards. The market for free agent forwards has not been as crazy. While there are definitely some big contracts out there in the past couple years, there have also been under the radar signings here and there that made a difference. Here is a list of most of the big names.
You tell me. More or less than my number?
--Michael Cammalleri. More or less than $6M? He was a point a game player on a young LA team playing mostly at center. He was a point a game player on a better team playing more at wing. He is just entering his prime, and the guy just oozes offense. $6M seems like a bargain right? But is he really a go-to guy that wins battles at both ends of the ice and is therefore the kind of guy you turn to in the playoffs like a Ryan Getzlaf? Or is he just the regular season version of pure offense whose creative version of offense gets bottled up more in the playoffs? If so, is he more like a $5M/year guy impersonating a franchise player who gets $7M?
--Marian Hossa. More or less than $7.5M? After 2 tries (I realize the Pit year was a trade so he did not choose it so much) at a Cup, does Hossa realize that trying to hand pick a Stanley Cup winner is impossible and just go sign a big contract? The guy is still only 30 years old, so 4 years for a bunch of money does not seem crazy? And as far as top-end scoring talent goes, he is the best available this summer. Is he just a small notch down from the $9-10M for Crosby, Malkin, Heatley, etc. in which case $8M is possible? Or with the salary cap shrinking, will this 2nd tier be pushed down a little to a $6-7M/year range?
--Martin Havlat. More or less than $5M? What even are you buying here? Is it the guy who could not stay healthy enough to be in the lineup for 3 years? Or is it the guy who had a solid 08-09 registering about a point a game and finished it with a very strong playoffs? The 1st Havlat looks like a risk at $4M. The 2nd Havlat seems fair at $5.5M. Does a team that is desperate lean forward and pay for the latter?
--Narian Gaborik. More or less than $6.5M? Gaborik looks about like Havlat except with higher stakes. He managed to get on the ice almost every game in 07-08 and put up a big 40 goals and 80 points. These numbers are flat out gaudy when you consider the buttoned-down Minnesota Wild system that he played in that season. I call that a 110-point season in a lot of other places. But past that you have to back the lockout to find a season where he was in the lineup on anything close to an every-game basis. His washout 08-09 and the fact that this is a recurring injury that seems untreatable makes him risky for 2 years let alone a long-term contract. Personally I would not touch him for more than 2 years at any reasonable price, and even short-term I would not sleep for the entire 2 years if I were a GM and signed him to be a top-line wing that I needed to score 80-100 points for my team to be successful. But these GM types are more daring than I. Will 1 of them pay for talent which has a fair price of $6.5M? Or will they all steer clear and see him collect only an injury-risk-adjusted $5M?
--Daniel and Henrik Sedin: More or less than $14M total? If you are a team desperate for offensive talent and because of your team's recent success, location or whatever are having trouble attracting talent, you might have a 2 birds with 1 stone shot here if you are willing to overbid. In terms of risk and knowing what you are going to get, this could be the deal of the bunch. If you sign both, you have 2/3 of the line, so most of the "how will his game fit with ____" questions are gone. Both have been healthy. You just plug them in together and you get 30/50 from Daniel and 15/55 from Henrik for a point-a-game each. And they are decent 2-way players, not boat-rockers and mostly just guys who you can plug in and produce. But at $7M or more, you have to ask if they are both truly franchise players in the vein of Crosby, Malkin, Iginla, etc? Or are they just short of that 1st tier and really players that should cost $5.5-6M in a shrinking salary cap world?
--Brian Gionta: More or less than $3M? He signed his last contract for $4M coming off a HUGE 48-goal season. This was a bargain. Since then, his goal total has deteriorated each year to the point where some might say that his 20 goals in 08-09 represents the downside of his career. Is he a 1st line scoring right wing that needs only a change of scenery to refind 30 goals in which case $3.5-4M might be right? Or is he sliding down the hill such that he will prove expensive for a falling 3rd-liner even at $2.5M?
--Alexei Kovalev: More or less than $4.5M? After what looked like a late career slide, Kovalev surged in 07-08. He was arguably the best offensive player on a good offensive team putting up a point-a-game, being a leader on the power play and finishing at a solid plus 18 for an offense-first type of guy. In 08-09, his scoring fell off a little (not a ton) but of more concern was how he seemed disinterested at times (enough to be sent home for a week in the middle of the playoff chase). He will be 36 when the next season starts. Signing up for 3-4 years at a premium price seems like a big risk. Does he go for a few more $ for shorter years in which case he might be worth the risk? Or does he push for 1 last big contract in which case most of the GMs run scared and his price falls?
--Maxim Afinogenov: More or less than $3M? Warning to GMs-Look away from the highlight film distributed by his agent! For a couple plays here and there throughout and NHL season, Afinogenov looks as good as Marian Gaborik. But some combination of streakiness and inability to finish has you expecting a bunch more than you get. The only years where he put up big numbers were the 2 years when Buffalo was just dominant and deep offensively and absolutely everyone scored. (Look at Drury's goal totals those 2 years and then the other years around them.) Is Afinogenov a guy with speed and skill who can flourish with your team? Or is he the flashy under-producer of years past? I fear that 1-2 GMs get bored and watch the highlight film on July 1 eve in which case someone pays $3M+, but if rational heads prevail he looks a lot more like $2M.
My allotment of hockey yammering time for the front part of the morning is running out, so everyone else can chime in on the Pittsburgh short-timers (Satan, Sykora, Guerin, Fedotenko), Tanguay and anyone else that I did not get to.
I will get back to Carolina Hurricanes stuff when I next blog either tomorrow or early next week. The aim is throw out 5 or so specific trades that could make sense.
Go Canes!
That is roughly how I see it. I think that the numbers were high in at least 4 if not 5 (Ohlund being the reasonable 1 if he takes a 2 year contract and does not push for 4). But at the same time, I find it hard to believe that the GMs will suddenly get smarter and unanimously avoid bidding wars this summer. My money says that at least 3 of the 5 go for more than my over/under number even if they are high.
So today, we turn to the forwards. The market for free agent forwards has not been as crazy. While there are definitely some big contracts out there in the past couple years, there have also been under the radar signings here and there that made a difference. Here is a list of most of the big names.
You tell me. More or less than my number?
--Michael Cammalleri. More or less than $6M? He was a point a game player on a young LA team playing mostly at center. He was a point a game player on a better team playing more at wing. He is just entering his prime, and the guy just oozes offense. $6M seems like a bargain right? But is he really a go-to guy that wins battles at both ends of the ice and is therefore the kind of guy you turn to in the playoffs like a Ryan Getzlaf? Or is he just the regular season version of pure offense whose creative version of offense gets bottled up more in the playoffs? If so, is he more like a $5M/year guy impersonating a franchise player who gets $7M?
--Marian Hossa. More or less than $7.5M? After 2 tries (I realize the Pit year was a trade so he did not choose it so much) at a Cup, does Hossa realize that trying to hand pick a Stanley Cup winner is impossible and just go sign a big contract? The guy is still only 30 years old, so 4 years for a bunch of money does not seem crazy? And as far as top-end scoring talent goes, he is the best available this summer. Is he just a small notch down from the $9-10M for Crosby, Malkin, Heatley, etc. in which case $8M is possible? Or with the salary cap shrinking, will this 2nd tier be pushed down a little to a $6-7M/year range?
--Martin Havlat. More or less than $5M? What even are you buying here? Is it the guy who could not stay healthy enough to be in the lineup for 3 years? Or is it the guy who had a solid 08-09 registering about a point a game and finished it with a very strong playoffs? The 1st Havlat looks like a risk at $4M. The 2nd Havlat seems fair at $5.5M. Does a team that is desperate lean forward and pay for the latter?
--Narian Gaborik. More or less than $6.5M? Gaborik looks about like Havlat except with higher stakes. He managed to get on the ice almost every game in 07-08 and put up a big 40 goals and 80 points. These numbers are flat out gaudy when you consider the buttoned-down Minnesota Wild system that he played in that season. I call that a 110-point season in a lot of other places. But past that you have to back the lockout to find a season where he was in the lineup on anything close to an every-game basis. His washout 08-09 and the fact that this is a recurring injury that seems untreatable makes him risky for 2 years let alone a long-term contract. Personally I would not touch him for more than 2 years at any reasonable price, and even short-term I would not sleep for the entire 2 years if I were a GM and signed him to be a top-line wing that I needed to score 80-100 points for my team to be successful. But these GM types are more daring than I. Will 1 of them pay for talent which has a fair price of $6.5M? Or will they all steer clear and see him collect only an injury-risk-adjusted $5M?
--Daniel and Henrik Sedin: More or less than $14M total? If you are a team desperate for offensive talent and because of your team's recent success, location or whatever are having trouble attracting talent, you might have a 2 birds with 1 stone shot here if you are willing to overbid. In terms of risk and knowing what you are going to get, this could be the deal of the bunch. If you sign both, you have 2/3 of the line, so most of the "how will his game fit with ____" questions are gone. Both have been healthy. You just plug them in together and you get 30/50 from Daniel and 15/55 from Henrik for a point-a-game each. And they are decent 2-way players, not boat-rockers and mostly just guys who you can plug in and produce. But at $7M or more, you have to ask if they are both truly franchise players in the vein of Crosby, Malkin, Iginla, etc? Or are they just short of that 1st tier and really players that should cost $5.5-6M in a shrinking salary cap world?
--Brian Gionta: More or less than $3M? He signed his last contract for $4M coming off a HUGE 48-goal season. This was a bargain. Since then, his goal total has deteriorated each year to the point where some might say that his 20 goals in 08-09 represents the downside of his career. Is he a 1st line scoring right wing that needs only a change of scenery to refind 30 goals in which case $3.5-4M might be right? Or is he sliding down the hill such that he will prove expensive for a falling 3rd-liner even at $2.5M?
--Alexei Kovalev: More or less than $4.5M? After what looked like a late career slide, Kovalev surged in 07-08. He was arguably the best offensive player on a good offensive team putting up a point-a-game, being a leader on the power play and finishing at a solid plus 18 for an offense-first type of guy. In 08-09, his scoring fell off a little (not a ton) but of more concern was how he seemed disinterested at times (enough to be sent home for a week in the middle of the playoff chase). He will be 36 when the next season starts. Signing up for 3-4 years at a premium price seems like a big risk. Does he go for a few more $ for shorter years in which case he might be worth the risk? Or does he push for 1 last big contract in which case most of the GMs run scared and his price falls?
--Maxim Afinogenov: More or less than $3M? Warning to GMs-Look away from the highlight film distributed by his agent! For a couple plays here and there throughout and NHL season, Afinogenov looks as good as Marian Gaborik. But some combination of streakiness and inability to finish has you expecting a bunch more than you get. The only years where he put up big numbers were the 2 years when Buffalo was just dominant and deep offensively and absolutely everyone scored. (Look at Drury's goal totals those 2 years and then the other years around them.) Is Afinogenov a guy with speed and skill who can flourish with your team? Or is he the flashy under-producer of years past? I fear that 1-2 GMs get bored and watch the highlight film on July 1 eve in which case someone pays $3M+, but if rational heads prevail he looks a lot more like $2M.
My allotment of hockey yammering time for the front part of the morning is running out, so everyone else can chime in on the Pittsburgh short-timers (Satan, Sykora, Guerin, Fedotenko), Tanguay and anyone else that I did not get to.
I will get back to Carolina Hurricanes stuff when I next blog either tomorrow or early next week. The aim is throw out 5 or so specific trades that could make sense.
Go Canes!
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