So in part 1 which you can read in full
HERE, I laid out the Canes needs and also addressed the goalie situation. Short version is that I would consider trading Ward for a fair offer, that the biggest potential upgrade is 3rd-line center slot and that I thought Rutherford would most likely go with what he has on the blue line after the Gleason/Liles trade unless the best return for Ward yields a top 4 defenseman.
Then in part 2 which you can read in full
HERE, I noted Canes players most likely to be available and what their value might be. I identified Peters (if Ward is not moved), Ruutu, Tlusty, Nash and Bowman as most likely trade bait. I also went a step deeper on why I still think (even after Scrivens trade) that Ward to Edmonton could make sense with the likely hold up a disagreement on how much Ward costs.
So that gets me to part 3 and proposing some specific trades.
I think the types of deals that Rutherford is exploring falls into 3 categories:
1) Adding the best forward possible, ideally a 3rd-line center, without giving up too much in futures.
2) Trying to unload Ruutu’s contract for the best deal he can get probably in a trade in which the Canes take the contract of another player who is not working out either in a “change of scenery” trade that is forward equivalent to the Liles/Gleason defenseman swap.
3) Dealing with the goalie situation.
I think the biggest question mark is whether Rutherford is gutsy/aggressive enough to make a push for the playoffs right now or if he would rather see a couple more weeks of hockey before he goes all in and spends more futures from an already depleted system. I have to think that he is generally leaning aggressive after 4 consecutive playoff misses but that he also needs to see evidence from the team in the next few games to suggest that he is not throwing good money after bad trying to push for the playoffs.
With a bad loss Monday and 4 days off until the next game, some thought a move would happen this week. While possible, I think the most likely time to see Rutherford pull the trigger is a little closer to the Olympic break. Canes play 7 games in 11 days starting Saturday. My hunch is that Rutherford would rather use at least part of this run to see if the current roster can get it going a bit before spending futures to add a player or 2. I think the Ruutu situation is the exception since that move is more about moving on and possibly recouping some of the $.
With that, here is a short list of possible trades across the 3 categories with 1 additional deal that looks longer term:
1A-Riley Nash plus futures to Nashville for Matt Cullen. This and the other Nashville trade below are a bit premature, as Nashville is still clinging to playoff hopes, but I put it forward anyway. Also, I think Nashville’s preference would be to get a higher caliber roster player back rather than futures, but they might settle for less. Cullen is a very good fit for the Canes C3 slot. Even in his late 30s, he brings enough wheels to skate with Skinner and Lindholm. He is a good mix of 2-way hockey with enough offensive ability that he balances the line defensively without dragging it down production-wise. He also brings the benefit of flexibility. He is comfortable playing wing, so if necessary he could fill a wing slot on a higher line. Finally, he has previously played the point on the power play. Cullen is not a pure rental has he is signed through next season at $3.5M.
If the Canes are willing to do this deal for Tlusty, it might be possible sooner, as both teams get players who could help now and also have contract situations past this season (Tlusty is a restricted free agent this summer). My guess is that Rutherford would prefer not to go this route giving up a young player who will likely have a budget friendly contract going forward after a low production 2013-14 campaign. Also by trading him, the Canes create another hole on the roster. Unless the Canes think Bowman or Ruutu can fill the slot next to EStaal/Semin, Tlusty for Cullen might open as many holes as it fills.
1B-Futures to Nashville for David Legwand. Legwand is more of a pure rental whose contract is up this summer. He is not likely to move until closer to the trade deadline when Nashville will do its best to stir up a mini bidding ward. Legwand is 1 of the best 2nd/3rd-line center available for rental, so he should be worth a 3rd round pick if not a 2nd. Specifically for 2013-14, I would rank him slightly ahead of Cullen.
1C-Riley Nash and/or futures to Calgary for Mike Cammalleri or Matt Stajan. Cammalleri’s role and skill set would be very similar to Gagner’s as another undersized skilled/scoring 3rd-line center. The key difference is that Cammalleri is an unrestricted free agent this summer and therefore a rental. It is not clear if Calgary would be willing to take a flyer on Ruutu (still with futures added to compensate for the risk) or if they would just prefer to collect as much as they can in picks and prospects. My best guess is that Calgary would rather collect futures possibly to include someone like Nash or Bowman. Cammalleri might be available sooner than Legwand or Cullen because Calgary is already looking past this season and because his big price tag ($6M) makes him harder for other teams to fit under the salary cap even at the trade deadline. It will be interesting to see what happens with Cammalleri. Even for a short-term rental, his cap hit is challenging this season, so maybe he ends up going to whoever can afford the cap hit for a bargain price (mid-round pick) which could be the Canes. Stajan is a similar story. He brings a decent option to plug into the C3 slot from a team likely to be selling up to the trade deadline. Both are unrestricted free agents this summer, so each would represent a short-term shot at pushing for the 2013-14 playoffs with no commitment going forward.
1D-Riley Nash and/or futures to Calgary for Mikael Backlund. Awhile back the reports were that the Flames were ready to quit on Backlund. I am not sure if that is still the case, but if it is, he would represent a younger and cheaper shot (compared to options like Cammalleri, Legwand, Cullen, Gagner, etc.) to add a scoring-capable center for Skinner’s 3rd line aimed at offense. If Calgary is ready to move on, Backlund should be available for a fairly modest set of futures in the form of draft picks or mid-tier prospects.
2A-Tuomo Ruutu + ??? to Edmonton for Sam Gagner. This is sort of the forward equivalent of the Gleason for Liles trade. With the Canes getting healthier at forward, Ruutu slipped to the 4th line and then his ice time fell victim to the shortened bench in Monday’s game. I think at this point the best that Rutherford will be able to do is a swap of players underperforming relative to salary or otherwise will need to eat part of Ruutu’s salary which is not ideal. As another undersized skill player or a 3rd-line center who leans maybe too much offense, I do not think Gagner is ideally what the Canes want to add. But Gagner’s and Ruutu’s contracts do line up fairly well in terms of dollars and term, so Ruutu for Gagner is to forward as Gleason for Liles is to defense. Edmonton could desperately use a physical wing or 2 to complement the volume of skill in their lineup. Ruutu brings some risks, but then if Gagner was capable of yielding a high-end forward or defenseman, he would have been gone a long time ago. While not ideal from the Canes side, like the Gleason deal it swaps a player who really does not have a clear role right now for 1 who at least might. Skinner/Gagner/Lindholm is a bit scary defensively, but with 2 lines above them and an any matchup/any situation Malhotra checking line below them you could cherry pick matchups at even strength and get Skinner and Gagner their extra ice time on the power play.
2B-Tuomo Ruutu to Montreal for ???. Montreal is a team that is playing well with the current roster but might want to add a bit more physical to their forward mix. My best guess is that Ruutu could be of interest to a few of the 2013-14 playoff teams who need more physical play, but that any of these trades would require the Canes to eat a portion of the salary (or take back a similar contract like the Gagner deal). It pains me to say it, but I am not sure the market for Ruutu expands much past a “change of scenery swap” until his cost gets closer to $3M/year at which point an opportunistic team would pounce (reference Jokinen deal last year).
3A-Cam Ward plus sweetener to Edmonton for 1 of the big 3 forwards. I wrote this up in detail in my previous blog, so I will not redo that fully again. It seems reasonable that the Oilers will give Scrivens a run this season and then make a bigger decision this summer. This would seem to suggest that the timing/circumstances for this trade would be IF Scrivens does not look like the guy based on the rest of this season and IF/WHEN the Oilers realize that they are not going to get what they want from the free agent market.
3B-Justin Peters to a 2013-14 non-playoff contender with goalie issues for a 4th round pick. There are a couple teams with long-term issues in net who could pick up Peters for a trial run down the stretch hoping that he continues his upward trend and becomes a Tim Thomas. For the cost of only a mid-round pick and with the hope that he would at least be a backup going forward, the risk is fairly low with some upside if it works out. This seems to be what Edmonton is doing with Scrivens. The Islanders would be another candidate. The Sabres could also look to add a 1B (to go with Enroth who I would expect to seize starting job) if Miller is dealt. Winnipeg is also an option. They already have all of their goalie money tied up in Pavelec’s bad contract, so any option to get goalie help without spending any money might be worth a try there.
If Rutherford decides that Cam Ward is still the goalie of the future or comes to the realization that the market will not yield a fair return, I think Khudobin could instead be on the block closer to the trade deadline and depending on the Canes playoff situation. If Khudobin keeps playing well, he will no doubt play himself into consideration for 2nd tier starting jobs in places like New York (Islanders), Edmonton, Winnipeg, etc. this summer. If/when Rutherford asks about next year, I have to imagine that Khudobin’s agent will want that kind of money (Ben Bishop got about $2.5M for 2 years). I do not think the Canes can afford that for a backup if that is what he is supposed to be, and it might even be possible that Khudobin just prefers to move on to a place where he is slotted to play 55 games as a starter.
Finally, I offer 1 other trade that does not fit the 3 categories but rather is a long-term oriented move to help the Canes defense going forward.
4A-A roster player or 2 (Jiri Tlusty, Drayson Bowman, Riley Nash) plus futures for Dennis Wideman. This is more of a long-term move to build out the defense which is actually coming around. Wideman would be the right shot, power play capable, puck-moving offensive defenseman for the 2nd pairing. He is signed for 3 more years at a cap hit (and slightly higher average salary) of $5.25M. With the salary cap expected to jump and free up a bunch of money for teams to spend in free agency this summer, it could be real hard to fill out the 2nd pairing on the open market this summer. Perhaps the time is now. For 2013-14, Sekera/Faulk, Hainsey/Wideman, Liles/Bellemore (if Bellemore was not part of the trade) could provide an offense/defense balance across the 3 pairings. It would also provide the chance to see if Hainsey/Wideman worked together before considering whether Hainsey is part of the long-term equation. Finally and maybe most importantly, it adds and locks down another top 4 defenseman before the potentially crazy bidding wars of the summer.
There are a couple challenges with this deal. First, I think ideally the Canes need to move salary to make this work which probably means Ruutu. In the midst of rebuilding, I am skeptical that Calgary would want his contract which could mean he needs to move elsewhere 1st. Lacking a bunch of mid-tier prospects, the Canes are challenged in putting together a decent package. While I think any of the veterans on Calgary are probably available for the right price, there is no urgency to move him.
If I had to bet what will happen, I think it goes like this:
1) Rutherford moves Ruutu for the best he can quite possibly eating a portion of his salary in the process.
2) He adds a decent C3 for a modest price to at least try to upgrade here for the Jan/Feb portion of a playoff push.
3) Then he rides that roster right up until the trade deadline at which point he has to decide if he is possibly buying to push harder for the playoffs or selling in capitulation and collecting a decent amount of futures from a team that has a good number of cheap (very important this year) rental assets.
4) I think Rutherford would deal Ward for the right deal, but that this will push to summer because no one will pay premium price while there is still hope that they can just pluck someone from the decent free agent batch this summer. Instead, I think Peters gets moved for whatever possible which is probably a 4th or 5th round pick. Closer to the deadline and pending how Ward does when he returns, I think Khudobin could also go simply because a conversation with his agent likely uncovers the fact that he wants too much money for Canes to fit him in a backup slot price-wise and because he might want to pursue a chance to be 1A elsewhere.
Some experts are screaming fire sale already. I don’t get that. Rutherford has a long history of being methodical and deliberate in these situations even under pressure. The team is only 6 points out of a playoff spot with 1-2 games in hand. Staring at 4 consecutive playoff misses, I just do not see Rutherford punting on that opportunity early when he can at least wait until closer to the trade deadline. There are enough options to add a center that I think Rutherford can make that 1 small move inexpensively. Then I think he waits.
What say you Canes fans?
--Is a Cam Ward blockbuster possible?
--Is there any chance that the Canes can keep Ward and Khudobin going forward, or between the $ and Khudobin’s desire to be a starter is it an either or proposition?
--Do you think I have Rutherford pegged right as being more likely to wait and evaluate than open up a full yard sale early?
--Which C3 option do you like (if any)?
--When most are thinking 2013-14 season and salary cap squeeze rentals, am I right that Rutherford might look farther out and make a longer term deal or 2 knowing that the salary inflation in this summer’s open market could be brutal?
Twiiter=@CarolinaMatt63 where the Canes debate trade and otherwise is heating up.
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