If you read part 1 of my “Playing Canes GM Jim Rutherford” blog yesterday, feel free to skip past the intro to after the break ------------- where the new stuff starts.
If you want to read part 1 in its entirety, you can find that
HERE.
If you just want the summary, it goes like this:
1) As hard as it is to let a franchise cornerstone go, I would trade Cam Ward if I could get a fair return. The potential to upgrade greatly at another position and still have good options for less $ in net is the driving force. For a complicated blockbuster like this, I would not get bogged down on a narrow player type, but rather would focus on getting the highest quality addition(s) regardless of position.
2) At forward, I think the biggest slot for improvement is adding a 3rd-line center. I would make this my top trade priority.
3) Awhile back, I said that the Canes needed to add offense/power play/puck-moving capabilities ideally in the form of a top 4 defenseman. Liles brings the right skill set in a lower slot, and for better for worse will need to be enough for 2013-14 on the blue line unless a Cam Ward trade yields a top 4 defenseman.
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Part 2 of “Playing Canes GM Jim Rutherford” will primarily address specific slots that could be upgraded and Canes players who could go the other way in a trade and what their value might be.
For me the basic starting point of Rutherford’s job this time of year asks 3 questions. First, is this team good enough to make the playoffs? Second, is there anything I can do to significantly improve our chances? Third, how much am I willing to commit ($ and future assets) to improve?
For the first question, I actually think this team is good enough to compete for the playoffs, but I think it is something like a 40-50% chance and far from a sure thing. For the second question, I think there are multiple slots/roles where the Canes could improve their chances with a trade. For the third question, I have to think that with 4 consecutive playoff misses that Canes GM Jim Rutherford will be fairly aggressive, not to the point of selling off from a system that is already light but with a targeted move or 2.
When I map out the Canes forward lines, I get this:
_____/EStaal/Semin
Gerbe/JStaal/_____
Skinner/___/_____
Bowman/Malhotra/Dvorak
I am not sure Lindholm has really seized a spot for 2013-14, but he is nearly untouchable trade-wise not because of his 2013-14 role but because of where he projects in the future. That leaves Tlusty, Dwyer, Nash and Ruutu as the forwards who are filling my open slots, but offer room for improvement either through finding a higher gear themselves or being replaced via trade.
So who might the Canes trade and what might they be worth?
--Justin Peters. I think his fair trade value was officially set when Ben Scrivens went to Edmonton for a 3rd round pick. Scrivens is a 27-year old goalie with 28 career starts coming into this season and nothing special in terms of stats (GAA almost 3.00/Save % a little better than .900). His value comes from a single lights out stretch of hockey that he played this season and his stellar 1.97 GAA and .931 Sv % for this season to go with a 7-5 record and 3 shutouts. Peters’ tale of the tape is very similar. He came into this season with 38 NHL starts and a not so impressive GAA north of 3.00 and a similarly low Save %. His value also comes from the fact that he was lights out for a stretch carrying the Canes this season. He played a 7-4-4 stretch where he looked every bit the part of a Tim Thomas type late bloomer. Both players represent a decent backup option and a relatively inexpensive lottery ticket with at least a chance to yield an NHL starting goalie on the late arriving schedule.
By himself, I think Peters has value in the 3rd to 5th round pick range to a team that is goalie deficient, maybe is out of the 2013-14 playoff chase and therefore has room to give Peters a trial run before making a longer-term decision this summer. He could also be packaged with someone else to get a player instead of a pick or prospect in return.
--Cam Ward. His recent trajectory is not great obviously, but I think he still has value to certain teams. Hopefully I will not digress too far here, but goalie situations are interesting with a number of different categories having different needs:
+ Teams trying to push into playoff fray and weak in goal (Edm, NYI, Cal, and possibly Fla, Wpg). These teams ideally need a proven solid starter who can raise the level of the team. Because the teams are weaker, someone like Miller is not a great option. Only NYI could ride him this year. Only if they can re-sign him is such a deal worth it, but it seems more likely that Miller would just depart for a contender when he became UFA this summer. While Ward carries more risk, he is locked in for 2 more years, so if he works, a team gets a couple years to run and also build a relationship that hopefully leads to the next contract.
+ Top-tier teams trying to win the 2014 Stanley Cup but possibly having room to upgrade in net (StL with potential for others to join with a starter injury). Cam Ward would likely be too risky and maybe longer-term than these teams want. Miller is perfect. If you have a legitimate shot to compete for the Cup, you do not mind spending a bit of futures to maximize your chance. You also have a much higher probability of being able to keep Miller longer term which makes it easier to part with assets to get him.
I do not have an inside source of any kind, but I am as sure as I can be based on intuition that the Ward to Edmonton possibility has been discussed. It just makes too much sense. The Oilers have been rebuilding for forever. I think the organization and its fan base are reaching the point when patience will wear thin. The organization has assembled a fairly high-end forward group. It has added a few leader types to help steer. It needs to make a move defensively both on the blue line and in net. Does anyone really think that the Oilers’ brass thinks the answer to the question “Who do we need in net to lead us to the playoffs?” is Ben Scrivens? Or Ilya Bryzgalov? And with a still rebuilding team that is not a top NHL player destination, even if the Oilers take a pile of money to the free agent market this summer is there any guarantee that they get a Miller or even a Halak? Heck no. If the Oilers do not do something via trade, there is a very good chance that next fall the team again claims that it is ready to make a playoff push and then follows that conversation up by admitting that their goalie tandem is Scrivens/Bryzgalov or similar. There is a chance that Ward never refinds his game and is a bust, but the Oilers are nearing the point where they desperately need to fail trying versus not trying to get over the hump and into the playoffs. It is very easy to picture Ward being a part of this push. When he is going well, he is at least an above average NHL goalie and he has performed well under pressure in the past. And he is a Western Canada product to boot.
So why hasn’t it happened? I think the conversation is thus. The Oilers want to make Sam Gagner a centerpiece of this trade and then make up the difference by then throwing in more futures (so maybe a higher draft pick or a couple prospects) to pay for Ward with a package. But Rutherford is not having it. He is saying that to let go of 1-time Canes franchise goalie, he must get 1 of the big 3 forwards (Hall, Nugent-Hopkins or Eberle) in return. And if my hunch is right that is exactly where things are stuck right now. Edmonton’s move today to part ways with Dubnyk before he left to free agency this summer and add a depth player and then add Scrivens in the domino deal puts them in a place where they can play out the 2013-14 season. But I cannot imagine that anyone believes that Edmonton’s long-term goalie situation solidified significantly with Dubnyk out and Scrivens in. So Wednesday’s move might push things to summer, but at some point there is another deal coming either via trade or free agency. Maybe they trade a conditional pick for someone like Halak’s rights in June to try another angle or 2, but I continue to think that Ward makes a lot of sense from both sides.
As for elsewhere, I think there are limited options for trading Ward. I think Rutherford would be real hesitant to trade him in division (i.e. Isles) and might even be hesitant to trade him in conference. As I noted above, I do not think the level of uncertainty that comes with him right now is a great fit for the current contenders, and most of them have goalies right now anyway. Also, the 2 years remaining on his contract make it impossible for him to be a rental for a team whose starter is felled by injury.
--Tuomo Ruutu. It pains me to say it, but I think he is quickly becoming the forward equivalent of Tim Gleason. With the Canes getting healthier he is falling down the depth chart to the point where he was 1 of the few forwards whose ice time was cut (played only about 8 minutes) when Muller shortened the bench Monday night. Right now, his 82-game pace is 24 points and a minus 16. On the heels of an injury-shortened 2012-13 campaign that saw hip surgeries both before and after it, his contract with 2 more years at $5M per year ($4.75M cap hit) has become very risky. Like Gleason, I think a trade involving him will likely require the Canes to take back “underperforming salary” to make a deal happen. This is more for the next blog, but if Edmonton is ready to be done with Gagner, could that be the foundation of a deal that involves a few more pieces? Just like in the case of the Liles/Gleason deal, their contracts are nearly identical in terms of duration and dollars. Ruutu is a bit of a rebound bet at this point, but his physical/gritty style of play could actually be a decent complement to skill littered throughout the top half of the Oilers forward group. Ruutu has a no-trade clause, but at the point where a previous top half of the roster player starts falling to the 4th line or even healthy scratch, those things tend to fade into the background.
--Jiri Tlusty. My hunch is that the Canes will want to be more patient with Tlusty. He is a restricted free agent this summer, and coming off a down year will tamp down the price of his next contract. This provides a decent, experienced NHL forward who can play checking line or scoring line (when playing well) with scoring upside for a reasonable price. This said, these exact same qualities are what might make him valuable to a trade partner and get him pulled into a deal aimed at chasing a playoff berth. He would have value to a team looking for a decent 2-way top 6/top 9 forward.
--Patrick Dwyer. It is not that he is untouchable by any means, but I would not put him at the front of the trade list simply because he is inexpensive (no need to produce or leave) and because I do not think he would yield much in terms of trade value.
--Riley Nash. This season Nash has made progress establishing himself as an adequate NHL checking line forward. He is slotted on the 3rd line for the Canes, but as I have said many times, I think his offensive/scoring ceiling really pegs him more as a 4th-line center unless he can find a higher gear offensively. At a reasonably young age and now with 73 games of NHL experience, he might have some value to a team looking to fill out a bottom center spot with some speed to complement grit that they already have. I think his value is more that of the “part of a package” variety. For example, if someone like Tlusty of Ruutu were traded for a center Nash could be added to backfill the open center position to even up or slightly expand the core trade.
--Elias Lindholm. He is not going anywhere. His 2013-14 has been a little bit disappointing largely due to the disjointed nature of it due to injury, but his future is still bright and with a farm system that is light on future help, there is no way the Canes will make a rash judgment on his future based on 1 season as an 18-year old.
--Drayson Bowman. I put him roughly in the same category as Riley Nash as having “part of a package” value as a young depth forward with a little bit of potential upside.
Per my previous blog, I do not see the Canes doing much else on defense unless a significant injury occurs or a big deal for Ward yields a top 4 defenseman. With the addition of Liles, the Canes at least added a new skill set to the bottom mix of defenseman and potential help for the power play. For better or worse, I think Rutherford is hoping that the current group is good enough if the Canes can figure out the forward lines.
Any deal that takes back significant salary past this season will likely require an offset player going the other way. With a bit of desperation in tow, I think Rutherford would consider spending more futures to add a rental, but not high-end stuff (1st round picks, any top-tier prospects, etc.) so there is a chance that Rutherford adds a single player without subtracting anyone from the current roster.
I am doing it out of thoroughness not pessimism, but jumping ahead to the NHL trade deadline, if the Canes are not in the playoff chase at this point, it could prove beneficial in terms of restocking the system. The Canes have a number of decent veteran players who are inexpensive (important with so many teams strapped for budget), UFA this summer (not long-term commitments) and experienced. Manny Malhotra would make a great 4th-line center/penalty-killer/faceoff addition for a number of teams. Ron Hainsey would offer great veteran blue line depth for a 3rd pairing on a good defensive team but is also 2nd pairing capable. Nathan Gerbe comes with a minimum contract (so he fits into even the tightest of cap situations) and brings energy and depth for a 3rd or 4th line of a team likely to go deep in the playoffs and need the depth. If Rutherford makes the decision that his goalie going forward will be Cam Ward, Anton Khudobin comes into play. I would guess that Rutherford would talk to his agent to try to re-sign him, but my guess is that he will want low-end starter kind of money ($2-2.7M) which is probably more than the Canes can afford for a 2nd goalie and might prefer to leave to be considered for starting positions elsewhere anyway. Komisarek and Dvorak are not high-end players, but there is a chance that 1 or both could garner lower draft picks from teams looking for more veteran depth for the playoff gauntlet.
In the 3rd part of this series (plan to post 1st half of Friday), I will lay out specific trade proposals that might make sense.
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63 where the volume of yammering continues to grow as we get deeper into the season and closer to the pre-Olympic and final trade deadline.
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