I actually wrote most of this last week before the Columbus loss when the Canes were riding a 4-game winning streak. And the genesis of most of the ideas still dates back to my team assessment/trade options that I wrote about in mid-November. So while any trade type of post might seem knee-jerk timing-wise after Monday’s disappointing loss, this blog is actually more of a summary and extension of where I have been heading for awhile. It is also important to note that the focus/priority 1 is trying to push into the playoffs in 2013-14. There are some longer term structural issues with the current team, but some things will have to wait until summer and beyond.
First things first. What should the team do with the goalie situation?
I still stand mostly where I did when I wrote a detailed blog about this on December 16. (You can find that blog
HERE if you want to read it in total.) The italics quote my original blog with notes (not in italics added).
Personally, I would do the following:
1: Find a way to keep Peters on the roster until someone else proves capable of taking the controls without a big setback in the handoff (realizing that there is a chance this never happens). Making the playoffs for 2013-14 is priority No. 1. Lindholm could go back to Charlotte without risk of losing him to buy time if the Canes need to roster spot to make the math work.
I think this is solved. Khudobin has officially taken the controls and is playing well.
2: Shop Ward for a fair value return. Under no circumstances would I trade Ward as a salary dump at a big discount, or just take the best available offer. But per my trade suggestion blog from December 2 (before his name starting popping up in trade banter more regularly), I would consider trading him if I could get a fair return that I thing significantly upgrades the team. The injury risk is part of it, but I also just think that with Peters and Khudobin the downgrade in net would be manageable even if Ward returned to form and the possible addition of a top-end forward or defenseman would make up for it. It is also important to note that as of right now there is actually not a downgrade to be given up in net with Peters outplaying Ward now and Khudobin outplaying Ward (albeit for a brief time) to start the season. Might Ward return to form and become the best of the three? Sure. It is very possible, but it is not at all guaranteed even with patience.
I am still in this boat. I think the most important comment is the fact that it is not clear that the Canes actually downgrade in net if they trade Ward. Who knows for sure what the future holds, but if the Canes played a game tomorrow that would decide the season Khudobin would be the starter over even the healthy 2013-14 Cam Ward. At the same time, there are multiple places where another $4 million or even just part of it (assuming Khudobin could be re-signed for something like 2 years $5M which is very similar to Ben Bishop’s deal) could provide a significant upgrade. With the volume of issues throughout the rest of the lineup and the lack of near-term ready help from the system, I think the potential gains far outweigh the potential risks with “downgrading” (if it even turns out to be that) in net to improve the roster.
3: If instead, Rutherford decides that Ward is still his No. 1 despite temporary struggles, I think it is a two-part move. Part one is to get at least one of Khudobin or Ward playing well. Part two is to trade whichever of Khudobin or Peters yields the greatest return. Again based on the fact that there is only one goalie slot each game, I would rather trade whoever yields maximum value rather than mostly sit maximum value on the bench especially considering that both options have proved pretty good this season.
As long as the Canes are chasing a playoff spot, and Khudobin is the best option in net, I do not see Rutherford jeopardizing current season playoff hopes. But if the Canes brass decides that Ward is the guy and if the playoff hopes fade, then Rutherford needs to quickly assess whether Khudobin is willing to re-sign for a high-end backup price to stay or if he will instead want to pursue a starter’s job and a bigger salary this summer.
As a disclaimer, I can clearly see the argument for sticking with Ward. The thing that I like most about Ward is how well he has played in both of his runs in the playoffs. At the end of the day, the ultimate goal is to hoist the big shiny Cup in Raleigh again. If the team can somehow find its way back into the playoffs and if Ward can regain his form, there are very few goalies whom I would rank above him in terms of giving the team a chance in the playoffs.
When you net it out, I think I come at this problem differently than most. Most want to debate whether Ward is too injury prone, whether he will regain his form and whether his playoff prowess is worth holding onto. For me it is actually more of a financial management/biggest needs equation. The Canes have at least 1 decent option in net in Anton Khudobin that costs much less than Ward. And the team has significant room for improvement in other areas with which money could help. Pushing against the salary cap this season, the Hurricanes organization currently finds itself in new territory spending-wise at a time where it is trying to hold things together revenue-wise with a string of playoff misses. There is risk and uncertainty to it, but trading Ward offers financial flexibility possibly without a downgrade at the position.
Though the $ involved clearly impact everything else, resolving the goalie situation is a bit separate from trying with limited moves to improve the rest of the roster.
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In my blog on December 2 (which you can find
HERE if you want to read it in total), I called out the 3rd-line center slot as 1 of the top areas where the Canes could improve via trade. (Again, italics quote the original blog.)
When you net it out at forward, I think the Canes have room to upgrade at least 3 spots, but I think will be fine just making a good upgrade to 1 of them. Prioritized:
1st: C3-Other than Skinner putting the line on his back in his 1st stint, the team has found nothing that works in terms of a 3rd line. The line needs a complementary player for Skinner, ideally a center.
I think that opening still exists. Muller’s attempt to move Skinner back to a separate line with the return of EStaal (and to a lesser degree Tlusty) shows a preference to balance the scoring a bit across 3 lines. The problem is that with a number of expected offensive producers who are struggling, the Canes barely have enough working parts to fill out 2 lines let alone 3.
I would rate the need to add a productive 3rd-line forward, ideally a center, as the Canes top priority currently. If I do the math, the Canes have at most 5 forwards playing at a top 9 level (EStaal, Semin, JStaal, Gerbe, Skinner). Past that there are a couple of proven veterans have played at this level previously but are not right now (Tlusty, Ruutu), a couple decent players who are overslotted at least offensively in this role (Dwyer, Nash) and Lindholm who still looks promising for the future but just has yet to become an every night top 9 forward for 2013-14. I really like the Bowman/Malhotra/Dvorak line. It is a good 4th line but becomes scoring challenged when elevated to the 3rd line and also leaves a hole behind them if they move up. Most team have a solid role player or 2 in their top 9 who are maybe light offensively, but with the collection of Ruutu, Tlusty, Lindholm, Dwyer and Nash on target for about 20-25 points each (Lindholm a little higher if you back out injuries and project on per game played basis over 82 games), the Canes currently have 2-3 too many.
Again, longer-term there are some structural issues (getting bigger at couple wing positions), but short-term if Rutherford wants to use whatever ammunition he can and push for the 2014 playoffs, priority 1 would be to add the best center he can get without spending too many futures.
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The 2nd area of improvement that I called out on my blog on November 22 (
HERE) was adding a 2nd pairing defenseman more of the offensive variety. At that time, I wrote (italics again=quote from previous):
So getting back to possible upgrades:
1) It is not that Bellemore has been bad. It is more about skill set and balance across the defense. Though there is risk in tinkering with something that is working well in some ways (defense), I think if the Canes offense continues to sputter that adding a #4 defenseman with offensive ability will come onto Rutherford’s radar if it is not already.
2) But the matter is complicated. The Canes already have 8 defenseman, so someone would need to go. Tim Gleason who continues to be more outside than inside the top 6 defensemen and makes $4M would be the obvious choice, but he has a no-trade clause and also is working toward becoming an untradeable contract with marginal play for a bunch of $.
That could see the Rutherford shopping for something on the cheap which is where Liles could come into play. Might the Canes unload Komisarek for about nothing (late round pick) to save a few $ and free a roster spot and then turn around and trade the same nothing (late round pick) to Toronto to get Liles with Toronto eating the max half of his contract? The Canes would add a player who is a bit of a reclamation project but at least with the needed skill set that Gleason or Komisarek cannot bring even if they are playing well. The cost would be only about $800k more this season (prorated $1.9M for Liles less Komisarek’s $800k). The risk to be considered is that Liles is signed for 2 more years, but at $1.9M he is not grossly overpriced even if he just becomes #7 depth (like the slot Komisarek was signed for this year).
In the Twitter debate, many were grumbling about the quality, questionableness of Liles ability to contributed, but here’s the thing. What the Canes need is a solid top 4 defenseman who also comes with strong offensive ability. The good version of this (Letang, Pietrangelo, etc.) without any risks costs $4-7M/year and more significantly are not available via trade even if you were willing to pay both in trade and $. If it gets to the point where it looks like the Canes are not good enough offensively to compete for a playoff spot and IF Rutherford thinks that defense is part of the problem then he has 2 choices. He can sit and watch the season sink knowing what the problem is, or he can make a risky but potentially difference-making move to try to rectify 1 of the few problems the team has.
I think the last paragraph summarizes the situation pretty well. Ideally the Canes could have benefitted from adding a proven top 4 defenseman who could match what Bellemore has done defensively but also bring more offensively. Those players are rare and incredibly expensive. Rutherford’s move to get Liles added the needed skill set in a different form, that of a 3rd pairing defenseman. With Bellemore continuing to be good enough defensively in the 2nd pair and the high cost of a more significant upgrade, at least for the 2013-14 season, I think the fate of the Canes season from a blue line standpoint will likely ride on the current personnel unless Rutherford decides to trade Ward for the best return he can get and that happens to be a defenseman.
So shorter version:
1) I would be shopping Ward and would part ways for a fair return. If you redeploy the $, I think the Canes improve significantly at another position and take a modest (if any) step back in net.
2) I would be shopping for a 3rd-line center to build out a 3rd line and increase scoring depth.
3) For better or worse, I think the Liles addition will need to be enough on the blue line.
Within the next day or 2, I will post a part 2 that offers examples of players who might fit what the Canes need and even offer a few specific trade possibilities (and then be verbally beaten by Canes fans and fans of other teams who I suggested trades with alike).
What say you Canes fans?
--Am I crazy to consider trading Ward?
--Is the current blue line good enough to push for the playoffs?
--Do you agree that C3 is the forward slot with the biggest potential for improvement?
--If you were Canes GM Jim Rutherford, what would you do?
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