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Carolina Hurricanes Blogger •
First, the deadline is when the unrestricted free agent open season starts. The tendency of negotiations of any kind is always for them to push up to the point when something needs to happen - labor strikes, government budgets and yes NHL player contracts. So nothing has really happened until the clock strikes for unrestricted free agent season.
The constant buzz in the media and on the Canes own web page can be summarized by saying that Rutherford is not optimistic about Cole or Larose. In simpler terms that means that the most recent gap between what the players are asking for and what Rutherford is offering is fairly wide.
Rutherford did sign up a piece of plan B by signing Jussi Jokinen for 2 years. IF the Canes can get a 3rd line center either via a BrindAmour resurgence or a Sutter rapid rising, then Jokinen becomes available as a right wing. Also, having the flexibility of Jokinen gives the Canes the flexibility to add at center rather than right wing. (This also looks forward to next year and beyond where ideally the Canes would like to be bigger and younger in the #2 center slot.) So Jokinen helps. One would also expect that Tuomo Ruutu will be resigned at some point (remember that he is a restricted free agent, so there is no clock ticking under 24 hours for him right now). That would give the Canes 2 decent right wings capable of playing in their top 9.
From there, the possible scenarios are endless:
1) If you figure that Rutherford probably had something like $4-4.5M budgeted for Cole and Larose combined, might he just throw the full amount at getting a single top-tier right wing to play with Staal? The options via free agency are limited, but there is the possibility of a trade.
2) Might Rutherford just add a cheaper depth guy for maybe $1-1.5M and leave a whole bunch of room for youngsters like Boychuk and Bowman figuring that he can make a trade in October if at least 1 of them does not work out? Even without Cole or Larose, the Canes are not incredibly short at the forward spot. A top 6 without Cole or Larose or any help from the kids would still include Whitney/Staal/Ruutu, Samsonov/Cullen/Jokinen without any help from the kids. I would argue that the Canes are short 1 top 9 forward, but that changes quickly if BrindAmour comes back strong and/or 1-2 of Boychuk/Bowman looks ready.
I think Rutherford has enough bodies and enough options and even enough reason to leave a little more room in the top 9 that he can afford to play a game of chicken with Cole and Larose.
From the players' standpoint, I hate when guys get villified in these circumstances. Chad Larose has been given absolutely nothing in terms of an NHL career. He was too small, too something, just a 4th-liner, etc. Everything that he got higher than a 4th-line/borderline AHLer, he earned via hard work. And in terms of NHL pay, he has been on the low end of the scale because of it earning only $875,000 last season while rising to a top 6 spot, scoring 19 goals (minus power play minutes) and just being 1 of the teams better players on a nightly basis. He earned a much bigger contract, and he earned the right to negotiate with other teams if he wants it.
I think Larose is at that point where he needs to decide what he wants. There are teams in the NHL that are not very desirable locations and therefore know they must overbid to add free agents. To such a team in need of energy, fire and a great 2-way player, Larose might be worth more than he is to the Canes. If Chad Larose primary goal is to capitalize financially (nothing at all wrong with that), he might be able to stretch a lesser team to 4 years and might be able to do it at nearly $1M more per season. But because the Canes do have some depth at forward, youth on the way and the need to save some money for a true top-line forward for Staal's line, Larose is not in a situation where he can simply negotiate the best deal on the open market and then ask Rutherford to match it.
Rutherford has suggested that while July 1 is not a hard deadline, it is a marking point. This was noted in a Canes article put plainly in a place where Chad Larose will see it. It is Rutherford's way of speaking more directly with Larose without an agent in the middle. I think it makes it clear that if Larose wants to get the extra $1M or so, he will not be there to match it and depending on what other options present themself he might not even be there at the original offer.
Chad Larose must decide: If he wants to stay with the Canes for a little less or if he wants to go for more money. He is not in a position to use leverage of another offer against the Canes to get more.
How does it end: I think Larose signs maybe even today with the Canes. My gut feeling is that the "I want to stay" is sincere with Larose and that the 2 sides will ultimately get something done either today or very early into the free agent period.
As for Erik Cole, I think he is in a similar position. The reason that he was traded last summer was largely because Rutherford was looking forward to this summer figuring someone would bid a big 3 years at $4M+ for a hard-to-find power forward who can skate and score some. But since then, Cole had a real rough time of it scoring-wise in a different system and then managed to score nothing in the playoffs for the Canes. That is not the kind of season that gets you $4M+ or even close to it. The positive is that he is now in a price range where the Canes can at least consider keeping him. But if Cole wants 1 more 3-year deal and he wants more money, he just does not slot there in the Canes long-term plans. Sure he has chemistry and can play alongside Staal, but the playoffs were a reminder that he is not the pure version of a 1st line right wing. He just does not have enough finishing options in his bag of tools.
So like Larose, I think Cole needs to decide what he wants. If he wants more years and more money, I think he could fit very well with a team that has less ability to attract free agents and a need for size and grit. But this could see Cole at another outpost trying to fit into a different system and role which did not go so well in Edmonton last year. Or he can choose to take less money (maybe a lot even) for a 2-year deal possibly with a no-trade clause to guarantee his stay at home in Raleigh.
How does it end: I am not privy to any numbers being bandied around, so this speculation, but my hunch is that the gap between what Cole "might" be worth to a desperate team and what the Canes can offer could be more significant than in Larose's case. This could be the tipping point that pushes Cole to sign elsewhere and become the forward who leaves to free up a little bit of space and money which helps with the "sign a wing for Staal" project and also the "make room to give Boychuk and/or Bowman some minutes" project.
If I can find a few minutes, I will take a shot at writing up possible free agents to fill Larose and/or Cole's slots maybe tonight.
Go Canes!
The constant buzz in the media and on the Canes own web page can be summarized by saying that Rutherford is not optimistic about Cole or Larose. In simpler terms that means that the most recent gap between what the players are asking for and what Rutherford is offering is fairly wide.
Rutherford did sign up a piece of plan B by signing Jussi Jokinen for 2 years. IF the Canes can get a 3rd line center either via a BrindAmour resurgence or a Sutter rapid rising, then Jokinen becomes available as a right wing. Also, having the flexibility of Jokinen gives the Canes the flexibility to add at center rather than right wing. (This also looks forward to next year and beyond where ideally the Canes would like to be bigger and younger in the #2 center slot.) So Jokinen helps. One would also expect that Tuomo Ruutu will be resigned at some point (remember that he is a restricted free agent, so there is no clock ticking under 24 hours for him right now). That would give the Canes 2 decent right wings capable of playing in their top 9.
From there, the possible scenarios are endless:
1) If you figure that Rutherford probably had something like $4-4.5M budgeted for Cole and Larose combined, might he just throw the full amount at getting a single top-tier right wing to play with Staal? The options via free agency are limited, but there is the possibility of a trade.
2) Might Rutherford just add a cheaper depth guy for maybe $1-1.5M and leave a whole bunch of room for youngsters like Boychuk and Bowman figuring that he can make a trade in October if at least 1 of them does not work out? Even without Cole or Larose, the Canes are not incredibly short at the forward spot. A top 6 without Cole or Larose or any help from the kids would still include Whitney/Staal/Ruutu, Samsonov/Cullen/Jokinen without any help from the kids. I would argue that the Canes are short 1 top 9 forward, but that changes quickly if BrindAmour comes back strong and/or 1-2 of Boychuk/Bowman looks ready.
I think Rutherford has enough bodies and enough options and even enough reason to leave a little more room in the top 9 that he can afford to play a game of chicken with Cole and Larose.
From the players' standpoint, I hate when guys get villified in these circumstances. Chad Larose has been given absolutely nothing in terms of an NHL career. He was too small, too something, just a 4th-liner, etc. Everything that he got higher than a 4th-line/borderline AHLer, he earned via hard work. And in terms of NHL pay, he has been on the low end of the scale because of it earning only $875,000 last season while rising to a top 6 spot, scoring 19 goals (minus power play minutes) and just being 1 of the teams better players on a nightly basis. He earned a much bigger contract, and he earned the right to negotiate with other teams if he wants it.
I think Larose is at that point where he needs to decide what he wants. There are teams in the NHL that are not very desirable locations and therefore know they must overbid to add free agents. To such a team in need of energy, fire and a great 2-way player, Larose might be worth more than he is to the Canes. If Chad Larose primary goal is to capitalize financially (nothing at all wrong with that), he might be able to stretch a lesser team to 4 years and might be able to do it at nearly $1M more per season. But because the Canes do have some depth at forward, youth on the way and the need to save some money for a true top-line forward for Staal's line, Larose is not in a situation where he can simply negotiate the best deal on the open market and then ask Rutherford to match it.
Rutherford has suggested that while July 1 is not a hard deadline, it is a marking point. This was noted in a Canes article put plainly in a place where Chad Larose will see it. It is Rutherford's way of speaking more directly with Larose without an agent in the middle. I think it makes it clear that if Larose wants to get the extra $1M or so, he will not be there to match it and depending on what other options present themself he might not even be there at the original offer.
Chad Larose must decide: If he wants to stay with the Canes for a little less or if he wants to go for more money. He is not in a position to use leverage of another offer against the Canes to get more.
How does it end: I think Larose signs maybe even today with the Canes. My gut feeling is that the "I want to stay" is sincere with Larose and that the 2 sides will ultimately get something done either today or very early into the free agent period.
As for Erik Cole, I think he is in a similar position. The reason that he was traded last summer was largely because Rutherford was looking forward to this summer figuring someone would bid a big 3 years at $4M+ for a hard-to-find power forward who can skate and score some. But since then, Cole had a real rough time of it scoring-wise in a different system and then managed to score nothing in the playoffs for the Canes. That is not the kind of season that gets you $4M+ or even close to it. The positive is that he is now in a price range where the Canes can at least consider keeping him. But if Cole wants 1 more 3-year deal and he wants more money, he just does not slot there in the Canes long-term plans. Sure he has chemistry and can play alongside Staal, but the playoffs were a reminder that he is not the pure version of a 1st line right wing. He just does not have enough finishing options in his bag of tools.
So like Larose, I think Cole needs to decide what he wants. If he wants more years and more money, I think he could fit very well with a team that has less ability to attract free agents and a need for size and grit. But this could see Cole at another outpost trying to fit into a different system and role which did not go so well in Edmonton last year. Or he can choose to take less money (maybe a lot even) for a 2-year deal possibly with a no-trade clause to guarantee his stay at home in Raleigh.
How does it end: I am not privy to any numbers being bandied around, so this speculation, but my hunch is that the gap between what Cole "might" be worth to a desperate team and what the Canes can offer could be more significant than in Larose's case. This could be the tipping point that pushes Cole to sign elsewhere and become the forward who leaves to free up a little bit of space and money which helps with the "sign a wing for Staal" project and also the "make room to give Boychuk and/or Bowman some minutes" project.
If I can find a few minutes, I will take a shot at writing up possible free agents to fill Larose and/or Cole's slots maybe tonight.
Go Canes!
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