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Might Canes use the trade frenzy for more permanent upgrade of blue line?

February 5, 2014, 11:04 PM ET [13 Comments]
Matt Karash
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
I think it could make a lot of sense. As long as you have to make a bunch of trade phone calls anyway, I would consider shopping for longer-term help on the blue line.

When you break down the Canes defense going forward (after 2013-14) it goes like this:

1st pair: Sekera/Faulk. Sekera is signed through next year; Faulk is a restricted free agent. That pair is taken care of for next season and likely longer.

2nd pair: ???/??? It will be interesting to see what the Canes do with Ron Hainsey. He has been a serviceable though not spectacular 2nd pairing defenseman playing with a mix of partners most of whom were “playing up” a level. After a rough summer of waiting and waiting and being rumored to be blackballed by NHL GMs for his part in the lockout, he finally had to settle for a low 1 year at $2M. Based on his play and the scarcity at his position, it is reasonable to think that things could go better for him this summer. But he is still not a 5-6 year big money type of defenseman, and he has to be at least a tiny bit paranoid after last summer. Might Rutherford be wise to try to re-up for cheap (2 years for $5.5-6.0M)?

3rd pair: Harrison/Liles/Bellemore/Murphy. The Canes are set here with a decent mix of players. The team has 2 right shots and 2 left shots, 2 big physical stay-home defenseman and 2 puck movers, 2 veterans and 2 rising rookies. There is also a chance that at least 1 of these players slots into the top 4 ideally because they continue to improve but also possibly out of necessity depending on what the team adds. Barring another big leap in play from 1 of the youngsters (Murphy, Bellemore) or a big step up by Liles as he gets acclimated, I think the team gets better if it can force these players down to the 5-8 slots because it has better options for the 2nd pairing. That might be wishful thinking, but I think slotting this group 3-6 without a significant other player (Hainsey being a possibility) is a recipe for more struggles defensively.

I think that the Canes could really use 1 more true top 4 defenseman. Next summer is going to be a real difficult time to try to get 1. With every big market team getting another $6M of budget and the general scarcity at the position, for a team like the Canes to land a top-tier #3 or #4 defenseman, they will likely need to overpay in both years and $. The prospect of signing a borderline kind of guy for 5-6 years at $5M+/year is just not that exciting.

So instead, I think Rutherford should explore options to upgrade at the position in the next few weeks before the crazy bidding wars commence this summer. There are some pretty good options currently sitting on teams that will be doing garage sales in the next couple weeks. None of these players are rentals (which makes them enticing), so it is not clear if they are part of the housecleaning or the rebuilding process, but most play for teams that are taking offers on anyone.

--Christian Ehrhoff (Buffalo). I really like him. He is a minute-eating all situation defenseman who can skate, contribute offensively but also defend. He signed 1 of those crazy contracts, but lucky for the Canes the crazy part of it ($31M of salary and bonus in the 1st 2 years!) is over. What is left on his contract is actually reasonable especially if you are more concerned about real $ and a little less so about cap hit. He is 31 years old and signed for 7 more years at a cap hit of $4M/year which initially raises red flags. But when you dig to the next layer what you find is that his actual salary is 4 years at a reasonable $3.75M (3 years at $4M and 1 at $3M) to take him to about 35 years old. The last 3 years of the deal are only at $1M/year which you can live with even if he ages rapidly and is only a depth defenseman by that time. If you figure that the Canes will generally underspend the salary cap by a little bit and can live with the high cap hit in the out years, the actual remaining contract structure in terms of how much you write checks for is actually a bargain.

--Trevor Daley (Dallas). I have no idea why Dallas would want to move him. Maybe they actually do not. But if he is available, he might be interesting. He is a non-spectacular but fairly well-rounded defenseman capable of playing in the top 4. He too has a pretty friendly contract making $3.1M/year (similar $3.3M cap hit) for the next 3 years. He is almost Ehrhoff lite. He is still in his prime at 30 years old, is a left shot mobile/skating defenseman who can log a bunch of minutes, play in any situation and is power play-capable. I do not think he brings as much as Ehrhoff offensively and he is a little bit on the smaller side, but he would be a nice safe bet to eat up top 4 minutes without killing you.

--Dennis Wideman (Calgary). Wideman leans a bit more offense, but he has proven good enough defensively to play in the top 4 over the past years. He might actually fit best if Hainsey stayed providing a right shot complement who leans a little more offense to go with Hainsey’s defensive leaning. His contract at 3 more years at $5.4M/year ($5.25M cap hit) is a little bit high for what he brings, but per my comments above I fear that the deals done on the open market next summer will be similar or possibly even pricier.

--Brian Campbell (Florida). I mentioned him as a possibility in Nov or Dec IF the Canes could swing a deal to give up futures to get Campbell’s good play and also package Gleason to make up for his bad contract. The contract (and whether he is even available) is the challenge. He is scheduled to make a whopping $7.14M for the next 2 years. That is obviously too much. But he is still a pretty good top 4 defenseman who can skate like mad and carry the puck. Might he pair well with someone like Bellemore who can handle the stay-home stuff and the work in the trenches behind him? I think the deal would need to be similar to what I proposed before. Could the Canes package Ruutu (to make the $ work) with some futures (to also give Florida something for its rebuilding project)? From a Canes standpoint, I would gladly take on $2.1M of extra salary (Campbell vs. Ruutu) to add a proven top 4 defenseman in exchange for a bit of a question mark at forward whose range is anywhere from “permanently limited physically such that he is now a 3rd/4th-line grinder at best” to “back to being a good, physical top 6 after a summer off.” The questions are many. Is he even available? Would Florida take Ruutu’s contract to help the $? How much futures have to go with Ruutu to make it worthwhile for Florida?

--Keith Yandle (Phoenix). I mentioned him as a possibility for a blockbuster trade this summer that saw him and Jeff Skinner as the biggest components. Fast forward to February 2014 and Yandle is having a so-so 2013-14 season. Phoenix continues to be pretty deep on the blue line currently and maybe even more so looking forward. Could Yandle and his $5.7M/year for 2 more years be available for less now? The tricky part could be figuring out what to give Phoenix. They are very much in the playoff hunt and in need of more pure offense at forward. No way are they getting Skinner in this deal now. His stock has risen with a solid scoring year, Yandle’s is probably down a little bit. Past Skinner it is not clear what the Canes can offer in terms of 2013-14 scoring which makes a deal unlikely, but just maybe Phoenix is ready to cut the big contract loose, go a bit younger/cheaper on the blue line and can spend the money at forward in another deal.

--Cody Franson (Toronto). The Leafs are alleged to be looking to get more defensive on defense. The Gleason for Liles trade was 1 step in this direction that by all reports has worked out well (for both teams actually). Franson and the Leafs had a minor contract skirmish this past summer before finally agreeing to a 1-year deal for a modest $2M. But that just set them up to have to do it again this summer when Franson is again a restricted free agent. Franson is roughly in the Dennis Wideman category as a right shot offensive-leaning defenseman who has proven adequate, not spectacular, in the past as far as defense goes logging top 4 minutes/assignments. He is not so much a physical force but at least brings size at 6-5 and 213 pounds. Perhaps the most enticing aspect of his game would be the howitzer he can fire from the point which seems to be the last possible missing ingredient to add to the Canes long-time struggling power play before just completely giving up and forfeiting future power plays. He like Wideman might actually fit best if Hainsey stayed to sort of be the more defensively responsible/safety net half of a 2nd pairing. Trade-wise this sets up a bit like Phoenix. Ideally what I think the Leafs would want would be an NHL now 2nd/3rd-line center or possibly an equal quality more defensively sound defenseman. The Canes really cannot offer either which leaves them hoping that Toronto just prefers to turn over the offensive part of their blue line over to the kids and part ways with Franson for any decent return even if it does not fill the top priorities on their wish list.

--Whoever the Canes NHL scouts think is underrated. The Andrej Sekera trade this summer that saw the Canes give up underperforming and flawed Jamie McBain plus a 2nd round pick for Sekera who is scheduled to make only $1.75M this year and next to boot looks utterly brilliant at this point. Whoever pounded the table hardest to make the Sekera deal happen has to be riding high in terms of confidence and Canes trade clout right now. Do the Canes have another Sekera on their radar who they can quietly scoop up during the frenzied days of phone calls coming in a few weeks?

If I had to rate group the players above, it would go like this:

1a, 1b and 1c in Ehrhoff, Daley and Campbell impress me most as pretty solid all-around top 4 defensemen without much in terms of holes or question marks and represent the surest upgrades. I would be happy with any of the 3. I like Ehrhoff and Daley a little bit better defensively and also for their friendly contracts. The biggest issue with Campbell is the contract, but if (and maybe only if) Florida took Ruutu back in the trade, the $ work out. (And yes I realize that Ruutu has a no-trade clause and might not agree to go there though now mired on the 4th line he has to be getting closer to just accepting any kind of change of scenery.)

2a, 2b & 2c in Wideman, Franson and Yandle all represent more offensive-leaning options. Wideman and Franson as right shots could pair well with Hainsey being a defensive glue type partner for them. Yandle is a similarly offensively geared player but a left shot. All 3 concern me a little bit more defensively, but all have played (successfully) as top 4s, so it is not a stretch to slot them there again. The risk with each is the need to find the right kind of partner/chemistry such that he can do his thing offensively and maybe get a little bit of support/propping up defensively.

Hah! I did it! I wrote an entire “defenseman the Canes should consider for the future” article without even mentioning Marc Staal. Wait…crap…does that count? I still almost made it which is saying something.

What say you Canes fans?
--Are you as scared of the potential prices for decent even borderline top 4 defensemen this summer as I am?
--Based on that would you be negotiating with Ron Hainsey right now and hopefully leveraging any paranoia after his real long summer of 2013 to get a fair couple-year deal for a serviceable top 4?
--Do you think I am right that Rutherford might use the bevy of phone calls over the next month to work on the team’s lineup past the 2013-14 season?
--Was it wrong or courageous to leave Marc Staal out altogether?

Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63

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