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Joni Pitkanen situation: Options?

September 3, 2013, 4:36 PM ET [10 Comments]
Matt Karash
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
It was reported today by Chip Alexander of the Raleigh News & Observer that Joni Pitkanen will not be recovered and ready for training camp following recovery from the serious and strange heel injury that he suffered in April

You can find Chip's article HERE

The short version of it is that sounds very uncertain and more or less crumples up the blue line game plan from my blog posted just 5-6 hours ago.

So if it turns out that Pitkanen will miss significant time and/or there just is not a clear enough time table, what are the Canes options:

1) Fill the position from within. Brett Bellemore, Mark Flood and Ryan Murphy would be the most likely candidates from within the organization. You could shift someone up to the top 4 (Harrison or Komisarek) and then back fill them in the bottom pairing. Bellemore brings familiarity with the personnel system and a decent albeit short track record from 2012-13. Mark Flood brings a decent amount of NHL experience but none in the Canes system. And Ryan Murphy brings skating and a bunch of upside but also the risk of trying to make a big jump straight from juniors to the NHL.

Putting it bluntly, I think this is a horrible idea.
--It seems like you would have to separate Faulk and Sekera to get any semblance of puck-moving ability on both of the top 2 pairings which I do not like.
--Even still I think you have 2 players trying to fake it to make it as a true NHL top 4. Gleason, though slotted here based on salary, struggled in 2012-13 and seems more likely to be needing help versus giving it early in 2013-14. When there was last NHL hockey last spring, Komisarek was slotted as a healthy scratch. I think he has a lot of upside as he gets comfortable and confident but for early October, top 4 minutes/responsibilities are just asking too much. And as much as I love Jay Harrison, I think he has become the new "Wallin indicator" from years back. Back in the day, Niclas Wallin was a solid hockey player, a playoff warrior and a very solid 3rd pairing defenseman. But anytime he started seeing too regular of minutes in the top 4, it was always an indicator that the season was either already heading in the wrong direction or about to. Similarly, I think Jay Harrison is a solid 3rd pairing defenseman, but I just do not think he is top 4-capable for a big chunk of 82 games on a team destined for the playoffs.
--As much as I love (and believe in via the 2002 Canes playoff run) hockey miracles, I just do not see any of the youth/depth options leapfrogging the 3rd pairing altogether and seizing a top 4 spot in anything but a "rebuilding/development year" type of scenario.

2a) Ron Hainsey. His name was all the buzz amongst Caniacs on Twitter in mid-July. And though Canes GM Jim Rutherford obviously did not mention him by name, there seemed to be nough clues to indicate that may where there was smoke there could eventually be a fire. So with about $4.9M in available salary cap and possibly minus Pitkanen, might it be time for the fire? Hainsey is obviously not the next coming of Scott Niedermayer, but he does bring skating ability and experience and a comfort level with top 4 assignments and minutes. He might be a step up from the other options, but he really is not an offensive catalyst or true power play option, so while possibly filling Pitkanen's slot, there would still be holes.

2b) Tom Gilbert. I think it is reasonable to call him a right shot version of Joni Pitkanen lite. He too lists skating as his strength and like Pitkanen he has decent ability to create offensive both carrying the puck at even strength and on the power play. He also has played the role of top 4 defenseman up in the 20-22 minute per game range, so he at least theoretically brings experience in the role. As a right shot who can skate, might he be the good version of Jamie McBain next to Pitkanen when he returned? (I know people's memory of McBain is clouded by the really rough ending, but he did have stretches where he looked at least adequate next to Pitkanen.)

I think the likely problem with both of these players is a combination of $ and term. Both are coming off $4Mish/year contracts and top 4 roles which is what their agents starting negotiating off of. If either were willing to take either less $ ($2-2.5M/year?) or less time (1 year but at $3-3.5M), I think they would be signed.

If Canes GM Jim Rutherford wants to get either of these top remaining blue line options, he is not set up for a nasty game of chicken. He has the advantage of knowing that these players/agents probably want to get something done real soon with training camps starting up in the next few days. But they now have the advantage of knowing that he is between a rock and a hard place with very few options available (via free agency anyway). Until the Pitkanen situation becomes more clearly defined, I am skeptical that Rutherford will start dipping too heavily into future years' budgets by committing full price for 3 years.

3) Matt Niskanen or similar on the trade market. Matt Niskanen is 1 of the potential extras/odd men out with the Penguins having too many 1-way defenseman and also pushing against or possibly over the salary cap. He is signed through 2013-14 for $2.3M and could probably be had for a draft pick or collection of non top-end prospects. He is probably not a pure top 4, but like the other 2, he fits the description of being a great skater with some ability to help move the puck and create offense. As a right shot who can move the puck, his skill set looks a bit like Gilbert's and could at least potentially pair with Pitkanen. I hate to trade away even more futures to try to patch holes for 2013-14, but if Rutherford cannot somehow negotiate Hainsey and Gilbert against each other to get a 1-year deal at a reasonable price then I think the trade route becomes more likely.

I took a quick look at the other remaining UFAs and nothing jumped out at me as being borderline top 4 capable. If I get a few minutes late tonight, maybe I will what I can brainstorm up in terms of trade options.

If I were GM, I would try to play the "I have other options" chicken game with Gilbert first and then Hainsey second to see if I could get either for 1 year even if I had to pay a bit more. Even if Pitkanen makes it back, the depth could be helpful. If not, I begrudgingly try to send another draft pick to Pittsburgh for Niskanen or otherwise explore similar trade options league-wide. My priority list obviously shows that I am not comfortable with going with the current personnel minus Pitkanen.

Oh the questions...
--Will this just prove to be a mostly false alarm that causes Joni to miss a week or 2 and then be fine?
--Can the current personnel somehow step up, fill holes and make it work?
--Can Rutherford win the impending game of contract chicken and get 1 of the unsigned players to take less $/years?
--Or does this end with the team having no choice but to way overpay out of desperation to lock in a long-term contract that might be a problem next summer?

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