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Jeff Skinner poll results + Who will play point on the power play?

August 8, 2013, 11:12 AM ET [7 Comments]
Matt Karash
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
First, here are the results as of Wed night from the Jeff Skinner poll that I did earlier this week:

Question 1: If you were Canes GM, what would you do with Jeff Skinner?
33% - Keep him long-term. He should be a core part of the forward lines.
29% - Look to trade him now. Between the injury risk and big contract, the team is better served using his value to add a defenseman.
38% - Keep him for 2013-14 to further evaluate then make a decision next summer.

Question 2: If Jeff Skinner stays with the Hurricanes for all of 2013-14, what do you expect for games played?
54% - 70+ games.
43% - 50-69 games.
3% - 30-49 games.
0% - Fewer than 30 games.

Question 3: If Jeff Skinner stays with the Hurricanes for all of the 2013-14 season, how many points do you think he scores?
4% - 80ish or more - He is ready to rise up and become a point per game player.
14% - 70-79 - Not quite in the Eric Staal range but his best season to date.
38% - 60-69 - A return to his rookie season form.
27% - 50-59 - A solid output and step up from the past 2 seasons.
14% - 40-49 - Not horrible but probably not enough for an offensive-oriented forward with power play time.
3% - 30-39 - Continued struggles trying to regain his rookie season form.
0% - 20-29 - At this level his contract probably becomes untradeable.
0% - 19 or fewer – Ugh.

When I net it out, I think I get a pretty equal split on whether to keep him long-term, trade him now or give it another year. If I do very rough weighted average of expected number of games to be played in 2013-14, I get something near 68 games played. Scoring yields a real nice Stats 101 bell curve right around 60 points. If people’s guesses are right, a 68-game 60ish point season for Jeff Skinner combined with stepwise improvement defensively should be a positive for returning to the playoffs.

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In my blog on July 29 ( See that blog here), I questioned which forwards past Patrick Dwyer and Jordan Staal would handle penalty kill responsibilities. The issue on the blue line is sort of the special teams reverse. In 2012-13, the power play struggled to the tune of finishing 27th out of 30 in the entire league. Minus Joe Corvo, Jamie McBain, short-term fix Marc-Andre Bergeron and point-capable forward Tim Brent, who from the Canes 2013-14 blue line will push the puck and man the point on the power play? Joni Pitkanen gets a spot. Well-rounded and still developing Justin Faulk gets a spot.

Then what? Andrej Sekera is a reasonably well-rounded player with some ability to move the puck, but he had exactly ZERO power play points in 2012-13. The goose egg would be scary enough if he just did not play power play, but here’s the thing – he did. Andrej Sekera actually logged 39 minutes of power play ice time in 2012-13 without registering a single scoring point. It gets even iffier (is that a word? :-)) from there. Tim Gleason, Jay Harrison and Mike Komisarek are not traditional power play types and saw minimal power play ice time in 2012-13. Career-wise Tim Gleason has averaged less than 2 power play points per 82 games played (14 pts in 599 games). Jay Harrison averages a similar 2 power play points per NHL game played (6 points in 249 games). Combined Gleason and Harrison managed a total of 2 power play assists (no goals) in 2012-13. But even that trumps Mike Komisarek whose next power play scoring point will be his first in the NHL as he pushes forward from the 519 NHL games he has played in heading into 2013-14. When you add it up, the 3 options to be the 4th defenseman on the power play in total offer 2 scoring points in 2012-13 and a 20 points in 1,367 games. And that is only after you plug Sekera who is not historically a strong power play performer into the #3 spot.

Of the current roster of forwards, the Canes do not really have anyone who is experienced at manning the point, but I would not be surprised to see some auditioning in that regard in training camp. This is why I really liked the idea of bringing back Matt Cullen (realizing that the price was just too high). He is just so versatile. He could have filled the PK hole at forward, the D/point hole on PP, the 2-way offensively capable need at LW on either 2nd or 3rd line and then been the fallback at 3rd line center if Lindholm proved not ready. But alas…that’s not happening.

So back to the current reality, my takeaways are:

1) This is the opening for Ryan Murphy. In my blog on Tuesday, I voted strongly for getting him significant minutes in Charlotte with the aim developing him into a Dan Boyle and NOT using him in a narrow/limited NHL role to plug a hole at the expense of his development. But if the team goes all-in on 2013-14 at the possible expense of the future, moving the puck up the ice and then manning the point on the power play is the skill set where Ryan Murphy is most likely NHL ready or at least adequate right now.

2) Joni Pitkanen could be an every-minute player on the power play. There are trade-offs and possible implications, but he is 1 player who might be able to handle this.

3) I still think Rutherford has 1 move up his sleeve. Who is out there that is a 3rd/4th-line type (so not that expensive in trade goods) who might be available via a smallish trade who has experience and is at least adequate manning the point on the power play? If this player can play penalty kill too, then Rutherford might even be willing to overpay a bit to kill 2 birds with 1 stone.

With the current defenseman and assuming that you do not carry a 7th (i.e. Murphy) in a forward slot, the math is tough. If a power play starts with some combination of Harrison, Gleason and Komisarek finishing a shift then maybe you can go Pitkanen for the full 2 minutes with Sekera and Faulk splitting time as his partner. But in any other scenario where some of the 3 power play defenseman are on the ice right before the penalty you inevitably end up with someone (Gleason, Harrison, Komisarek) who is not a natural fit for a good NHL power play doing exactly that.

What say you Canes fans? Who plays point on the power play? Which, if any, forward might be able to fill this role? Is Pitkanen, Sekera and Faulk enough? Can Rutherford swing a brilliant under the radar deal to net a forward who can fill 1 or both of the current special team skills gaps?

For a quick heads up when I post a Canes blog or to be part of the occasional conversation on Twitter follow me at CarolinaMatt63.

Go Canes!
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