So I wrote a candid assessment of Jordan Staal's 2013 season. It was not all bad, but I also did not take the easy way out and write a fluffy "We love Jordan...He's great" blog either. Next up is a similarly difficult blog assessing Jeff Skinner's 2013 that was also very mixed to put it positively. So for a little bit of fun in between and riding a little bit of new news straight from the Canes exec offices, I will have a little fun revisiting the possibilities for the Canes and the #5 pick in this summer's draft.
The Canes new uniform unveiling this week provided some sound bites from Canes GM Jim Rutherford and in them some clues as to the direction of the team this summer including, the draft, current UFAs and his identified needs.
The short version of the new clues goes like this:
--Rutherford will not look to trade up from #5 in the draft. And while he is by no means aggressively shopping it, he will listen to offers for the #5 pick. He seems to like at least a couple players that could be had lower than #5.
--Canes are not moving aggressively to re-sign impending UFAs Larose, Brent, Corvo, Bergeron, etc. No big surprise here. The Canes want to get bigger/grittier in the bottom half of their forwards, so I think a changing of the guard was more or less pre-announced during the season. Corvo was not the answer to filling out the top 4 last year. The Canes will go a new direction here, so if Corvo were to be brought back it would have to be for cheap in a 3rd pairing kind of price/role.
--Biggest need identified by Rutherford to no one's surprise was landing a top 4 defenseman either via trade or free agency this summer. The free agent list is sparse, so a trade seems more likely.
So what does it all really mean? My reading of the tea leaves is this:
On the #5 pick: I think it is 1 of 2 things:
1) Either Rutherford really really likes 1 of the 2 centers in the 2nd tier (Monahan or Lindholm) and thinks they are on par with Barkov and he is not enamored with Nichushkin. IF this is true, then you could make a case for trading down from #5 to maybe #7 (Edm) or #8 (Buf) if you can also get a nice bonus asset (a top-end prospect or roster player in Edm's case or a lesser roster player and Buf's other 1st round pick).
2) He is just holding out for a king's ransom that includes the magical solution to his hunt for a top 4 dman in addition to a replacement pick in addition to another prospect or 2nd round pick in addition to....Basically meaning it probably won't happen unless another GM gets silly.
I think it really will take a king's ransom to pry the pick away. It's because of the math. While the top 4 defenseman is the most pressing and significant need, the Canes do also need to fill out their top 9 forwards with at least a little more offensive skill as part of it in addition to trying to get bigger. Right now, the Canes have locked in Tlusty/EStaal/Semin and then JStaal, Skinner and Ruutu to make 3 more forwards that go across the next 2 lines. The team can probably fill 1 more spot from someone like Patrick Dwyer or Drayson Bowman who might be a little overslotted scoring-wise and might be able to afford a mid-range ($2Mish) big forward to help, but the draft pick is the best option available to accomplish 2 things: 1) Add some scoring punch and skill to the top 9; 2) Do it for real cheap on an entry level contract. If the Canes trade down too far and get a player who is 2-3 years away from the NHL to get an NHL defenseman, I'm not sure Rutherford buys himself much especially for 2013-14. The traded for dman probably has a "full price salary" and now you have another hole at forward with not much money to do anything about it.
The most likely path for the Canes this summer goes like this:
1) Canes use the #5 pick for whoever is left between Barkov or Nichushkin. Barkov fills the 3rd center slot with a good 2-way center with playmaking ability that could be a path to separating but still using effectively Skinner and JStaal who did not mesh last season. Nichushkin could instead fill out an interesting 2nd line of Nichushkin/JStaal/Ruutu that would create matchup problems with their size and could be real difficult/taxing for opponents' skill lines to play against for 15-18 minutes/night when Muller can dictate matchups.
2) Rutherford solves the blue line problem separately with trade seeming more likely than the free agent market. The UFA market for top 4 dmen is thin this summer. Streit seems destined for a crazy bidding war only because there is so little to bid on. I like Scuderi and maybe someone like Leopold and his skating ability could be a decent partner for Gleason. The cheaper market for defenseman this summer could likely be teams trying to make the salary cap or prepare to make it in the future unloading $4Mish (or higher) top 4 dmen. Montreal is suddenly pretty deep on defense. Might they trade gradually aging AMarkov at a high point after a rare injury free season and heading into the last year of his contract? A Luongo move would help but Vancouver is still pushing against the cap and currently has 5 $4M+ dmen. Could someone like Ballard be available for cheap since he seemed to rank #5 more than the others this past year. Some have even said that he could be bought out which would suggest the asking price would be reasonable. Interesting about Ballard is that he is signed for 2 years which could walk the Canes right up to when Marc Staal hits the UFA market. Phoenix is deep with young up and coming defenseman. Would someone like Michalek, Klesla or Morris be a good enough plug for the Canes? Yandle is the real prize obviously, but then I think you are a much bigger price tag possibly in the Skinner price range versus the cheaper alternatives. If Colorado takes Seth Jones, could Erik Johnson become available? Calgary seems to be entering full rebuilding mode. Dennis Wideman seems overpriced at $5.25M for 4 more years, but the lack of free agent defenseman on the market could drive those players to similarly high levels.
For the sake of something for non-playoff hockey fans to debate:
If you were Canes GM Jim Rutherford, would you even consider trading the pick? If so, what do you want in return?
If you were Edm, would you do Smid + the #7 pick + something else decent like Hartikainen or another medium prospect or 2nd round pick?
If you were Buf, would you do the #8 pick plus the #16 pick plus something else?
If you were NJ, would you trade the #9 pick plus Anton Volchenkov plus something else?
Per my comments above, I really only see Rutherford moving down a couple spots if he likes Monahan or Lindholm as much or nearly as much as the options at #5. I would be incredibly surprised to see him drop to #10 or below with the idea of trading 1 elite player for a package of lesser futures.
I realize that these prices are high, but the simplest thing for Rutherford is to not overthink it and just use the pick to add a skilled forward who can play at the NHL level in 2013 and has high long-term upside from there.
If I were Jim Rutherford, I would not overthink it. In a rare year, where you can get a player at #5 who has franchise player potential, I think you just do it and do not get cute trying to use the pick to fix other problems that can be addressed in other ways. I put the phone down and take whichever of Barkov or Nichushkin falls to #5 pencil him into the top 9 forwards and start working the phone to address the blue line and other issues separately.
For a quick heads up when I post a Canes blog or occasional random debate, follow me on Twitter at CarolinaMatt63.
Go Canes!
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