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Game #58: Canes take 3 steps in the wrong direction in Buffalo |
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In game #1 after the Olympic break and starting the stretch run for the 2013-14 season, the Canes took 3 steps in the wrong direction.
First and most importantly, the Canes took a step toward golfing in mid-April. My game preview today and the blog I wrote before that laid out in detail how difficult the Canes' schedule was down the stretch with 16 of 25 on the road, 6 back-to-backs and about a half dozen games against the league's elite teams. Tuesday was 1 of the games that the Canes should have won and desperately needed to win. In losing 3-2 in Buffalo, the Canes used up 1 of their 2 games in hand on the teams in front of them, used up 1 of the few games against weaker teams and got absolutely nothing in return. A single game will not decide this season, but the Canes took as big of a step as they could possibly muster in a single night toward missing the playoffs.
Second, the team also took a step toward being a seller in the soon to heat up trade market. This was the easiest game of the 5-game road trip that finishes before the trade deadline. Up next is Dallas who has been playing better of late then a gauntlet of 3 games in 4 days against 3 good Western Conference teams. I said before tonight's game that the goal was 3-1-1 for the road trip. With an 0-1 start, 3-0-1 looks challenging. With tonight's game, Ron Hainsey might have taken a step closer to playing March and April in Boston or somewhere else. (To be clear, this is not a knock on Hainsey's play but rather a comment about the state of the Canes as sellers or buyers combined his friendly cap hit and free agent status this summer.)
Third and most important going forward, I have to wonder if the team also took a huge step toward being without Anton Khudobin next season. In an all-important 1st game after the Olympic break when everyone is rested and ready to go, why would you start anyone except for your best goalie? Cam Ward will need to play and win games with the busy schedule down the stretch. But let me ask this? If Ward were the current starter and Khudobin the backup (as the team seems to want it), would there be any chance that you would instead start the backup after a 2 1/2 week rest for everyone? Not a chance. If it would have worked, it would have had some positives. Again, Ward does need to get back in the mix and win some games. In theory, it was a game where maybe the team could carry him and help build confidence. But when it does not work, it looks like an attempt to get cute and "hope" rather than icing the best possible chance to win 2 points. With a couple wins to get rolling, Sunday would have set up as a good opportunity for Ward. It would be much less of a must-win game and 1 in which Ward could have worked himself into the mix.
But this game aside, what might this mean for Anton Khudobin's future in a Canes uniform?
Point 1: If he wanted to just be an NHL backup, he would have stayed in Boston. At $800k to join a team that had not made the playoffs in 3 years, it is not likely he joined the Canes because it was a better backup opportunity. He joined the Canes for ice time on the path to being a starter, and maybe even because he thought there was a decent chance that he could win the starter's job with Ward struggling a bit in 2012-13 and also coming off a knee injury.
Point 2: He did win the starter's job, or at least he did everything possible within his control to do so. After winning the NHL player of the month award for January and pulling the Canes back to brink of the playoff hunt, there is absolutely nothing else that he could do to stake a claim to being the #1 goalie in North Carolina. Then coming out of the Olympic break, he gets to sit the 1st game and in the process gets sent a very clear message that as long as Cam Ward is around, there will always be a background want from the team for him to be the #1 goalie.
Point 3: Anton Khudobin will be 28 years old when the next NHL season starts. If he was content making good money playing goalie, he would likely have stayed in the KHL rather than paying dues unglamorously working his way up from the minor league ranks to get where he is now. If he was happy just being in the NHL, he would likely have stayed in Boston. It seems glaringly obvious, that he is on a personal mission to be an NHL starter. With the season he has had this year and the number of teams hurting in net, that opportunity is certain to be there for him if he waits until this summer. Canes fans will talk about how Rutherford should bite the bullet and pay him to stay even if it means investing $10M at goalie net next season. But here is the thing, if my logic that he really wants to be a starter is correct, Rutherford will be unable to re-sign Khudobin even if he is willing to spend the money.
I see only 2 ways that this story ends differently than where I see it going:
1) Ward's Tuesday start was actually an (ill-fated) attempt to showcase him for a trade. This seems unlikely.
2) Khudobin is not chasing a starter's job but rather just wants a place where he fits personally in which case there is at least a chance that he likes Raleigh and the Canes organization. Again, this seems unlikely. It is not as if he cannot find a fit personally somewhere else.
As for the game, there was actually a lot to like. The Canes were the better team over the course of the game. They probably deserved to win. And a number of players put forward strong outings.
--Tuomo Ruutu. His play continued to build after a strong finish before the Olympic break and a good Olympics including a bronze medal. He showed no signs of jet lag or weariness. He set up good odd man chances for both line mates (Skinner and Nash) with good plays from the neutral zone, was in/around the crease multiple times when the puck showed up and just generally played a good hockey game. The run is a bit disjointed with 3 NHL games early in the month followed by the Olympic and now 1 more NHL game, but he has now strung together nearly a full month of solid hockey which is encouraging.
--Alexander Semin and Eric Staal. I would not describe their game as dominant, but Eric Staal and Alexander Semin both notched big goals and finished plus 2 on the night.
--Riley Nash and Jeff Skinner win the "mixed" award for the night. On the 1 hand, the line had jump and created chances all night which is positive obviously. But with some of the best in-close uncontested chances partly as a result of seeing a regular dose of a defense pairing with John Scott, they failed to convert. Riley Nash also took 2 minor penalties of the obstruction variety.
--The power play. Despite the fact that it did not work, I was at least happy to see Muller switch things up a tiny bit by putting Ruutu on the 1st unit and given the role of playing in front of the net. The 1st couple power plays were actually decent before things went down hill. The biggest problem was gaining the zone after that. When it ended, the Canes were 0 for 5 with a full 10 minutes of power play ice time.
--Difference in net. In a game when the Canes could have easily scored 3-4 goals, Ryan Miller gave up only 2. In a game that seemingly could have been a shutout with only 18 shots against and a handful of good scoring chances, Cam Ward somehow gave up 3. The 1st was plain and simple a soft goal when Ehrhoff beat him off his glove from the blue line without a ton of heat on the shot. There was a stick waving in front of him, but the puck did not change direction. That should be an easy save for an NHL goalie. The 2nd goal featured a pretty harmless odd angle shot that Ward directed right into trouble in front of him (instead of controlling for a faceoff or pushing hard to the boards on the other side of the rink). The puck was then soon behind him. The last-minute game-winner was more bad luck than anything, but if you watch the replay in slow motion, you get this. The pass that eventually goes off Faulk's stick and in goes right through the crease within 6-8 inches of Ward's pad and also stick. He reaches for it but too late which puts him forward and leaves room behind him when the puck deflects off Faulk's stick. Ideally, he gets a stick on the centering pass going right through the paint which would have worked. Or alternatively if he does not go to play the pass and too late, he could have moved straight across in which case he might have had a chance on the deflection. But again, at the end of the day, the last goal was mostly bad luck. In the bounces of an NHL game, 1 of those goes in once in awhile, but you cannot afford to group it with a horrible soft goal and another 1 in which you turn a fairly harmless shot into a grade A scoring chance from 8 feet in front of you. Put simply, in terms of volume and quality of chances, Ward saw a 1-goal against game and managed to turn it into a 3-goal against game while Miller saw a 3-4-goal against game and managed to turn it into a 2-goal game.
It might sound strange, but in terms of effort and quality of play this game was mostly a step in the right direction coming out of the break, so hopefully the Canes can build on it Thursday and collect 2 points in the process. But back 3-6 points from the last playoff spots in the East, the margin is incredibly small right now, and it is all about results. Tuesday the Canes did not get results.
Next up, the Canes play in Dallas on Thursday.
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
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