If you are checking in to read my 2c on the Gleason for Liles trade today, I have already pushed it to the archives by posting this. You can find that blog
HERE.
I have a random backlog of blog topics that I did not find the time to write/post over a busy couple of holiday weeks. My hope is to turn most of these into a couple multi-topic blogs with somewhat abbreviated write-ups over the next few days. For those of you who complain that my blogs are too long-winded, you should read each of the 5 topics in this blog as a separate blogs spaced out over whatever time frame works for you. :-)
Topic 1: January decides the Canes season.
I mentioned this briefly already. I really think that the Canes season gets decided in the month plus leading up to the Olympic break. Despite a rough ride getting there and the need for help from a weak division, the Canes enter January very much in the thick of the playoff hunt. The schedule leading up to the Olympic break is favorable.
If you start fresh with only January games, the Canes play:
--11 of 18 at home.
--11 of 18 against teams not currently in a playoff spot.
--Only 3 games against teams in the top 2 in their division.
The schedule lays out nearly perfectly that the Canes play 3 games each week including 2 against current non-playoff teams.
If the Canes are going to make the playoffs this season, I think it happens over the next 5 weeks.
Topic 2: Eric Staal’s outburst and unsportsmanlike penalty on Tuesday night were ______.
I bandied this around on Twitter with a couple people late morning today.
For those who missed the game because of New Year’s Eve festivities, it went down like this:
--The game was riddled with a boat load of penalties, bad officiating, missed calls, wrong calls, etc.
--Most relevant to this debate was a missed boarding on Tuomo Ruutu not too much earlier in the 3rd period. My opinion is that it was a pretty blatant missed call as a Montreal player banged numbers and put him face first into the boards.
--Then with less than 4 minutes remaining and the Canes having stormed back to a 4-4 tie, Eric Staal was called for boarding in the neutral zone when he knocked a Canadien player awkwardly into the boards. The hit was dangerous and resulted in an awkward fall but looked to be completely within the rules. Especially in light of the just-missed call on the Ruutu hit, it was a bad call.
--Eric Staal lost it and went completely nuts and earned an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty in the process. Based on the volume, length and intensity of the temper tantrum, I do not think it was a case where the ref could have looked the other way and let the 2nd penalty go.
So 1st to be clear, Eric Staal had every right to be royally upset with the call. It was wrong. I do not think there is anything to debate there.
The question that I bandied about after sleeping on it and also talked about with a few people on Twitter today was whether it was just a horrible penalty by EStaal or whether it was something that you can live with in the heat of battle.
I come down on the side of it being a bad penalty and just being too much like the volume of bad penalties that EStaal was taking early in the season when things were not going his way.
The argument for letting it slide mostly comes from appreciating the intensity level, the fire and the passion. When things are not going well for the Canes, it is not uncommon for Canes fans to want more of that from Eric Staal’s generally mild-mannered approach to the game. And I am on board with occasionally doing what it takes to light a fire under the team when it needs it.
But I think the timing is completely broken on this one. The Canes played a miserable 1st 2 periods of hockey of the completely lifeless and uninspired variety. During that stretch, Eric Staal did take penalties but more of the lazy/frustrated variety than the inspirational variety.
If he went bonkers, lost it and got into a fight or at least a coincidental roughing situation midway through the horrible 1st or 2nd period, I would have been fully on board. Had the penalty come immediately in defense of Ruutu after he was boarded, I would also live with it without a problem. But his penalty came AFTER Kirk Muller lit some kind of massive fire under them before the 3rd period. It came AFTER Jeff Skinner put the team on his back and carried it back to a 4-4 tie and legitimate competition for 2 points in the standings. Eric Staal’s penalty did not come in effort to pull his team back into the game. It came when the team was already clearly back in the hockey game and needed to do everything it could to at least get to overtime to get 1 point if not 2 in the standings to make the comeback productive and break the 5-game losing streak. At the point where EStaal took that penalty it was an undisciplined (even if justified release of pressure) that could have cost his team what it so desperately needed – a win.
So shorter version: I think more fire from Eric Staal in times of need is welcome, but I think this is a case of mistaken identity with the fire coming not when the team needed it but after the fact.
All of this said, I agree that this is very much a 2-sided argument with merit on both sides, and I do get the appreciation for and therefore willingness to live with Eric Staal’s outburst.
Topic 3: Justin Faulk makes Team USA. Next stop is fulfilling my long shot October prediction – maybe.
For my game preview vs. the Minnesota Wild on October 23, I titled it “Team USA 1st pairing preview?” I asserted that though it looked like a long shot at the time, that the combination of Ryan Suter and Justin Faulk would ultimately become the #1 D pairing for Team USA in Sochi. I think that is still possible. Even making the team was a big hurdle for Faulk. The current line of thought is that Paul Martin will play on his off side and pair with Suter to get 2 veterans together for the toughest assignments. While I think there is some sense to this, I continue to think that when you balance left/right and style of play that Justin Faulk is the best fit for Suter. He brings a physical edge with enough mobility to play on the big ice surface, and if Team USA matches left shots with right shots, I think Faulk is the legitimately the best all-around right shot defenseman on Team USA. If Orpik makes it into the lineup there is also some logic to pair Martin and Orpik because of their reasonable familiarity.
Shorter version: I think the odds are still slightly against it, but I am still holding to my October 23 prediction that Faulk and Suter ultimately find their way to the same D pairing.
I am absolutely ecstatic that I will be able to watch a Carolina Hurricane player represent Team USA in Sochi. (That is a selfish part.) I am also very happy for Justin Faulk. The Olympics are the great equalizer for publicity and credit for NHL players who are maybe underappreciated in smaller markets or playing for lesser teams. Just making the team ahead of players like Keith Yandle, Jack Johnson, Dustin Byfuglien, etc shows what knowledgeable hockey people think about Faulk’s game when many so-called big market-focused media experts had Faulk on the outside looking in. But more important than the vote of confidence from selection is the chance to showcase what he can do against the world’s best. For 2 weeks in February everyone who is NHL/hockey inclined will be watching ALL of the games and all of the SAME games, unlike during the regular season where the media is focused more on big market teams and teams with larger reading/viewing fan bases at the expense of the Justin Faulk’s of Carolina.
Topic 4: So where does John-Michael Liles fit and what can he do to help sooner rather than later?
The longer version with the history leading up to how/why Tim Gleason became expendable that I wrote earlier today can be found in my blog archives. That focuses more on the “why it makes sense” aspect of the trade.
But starting tomorrow with a real hockey game in Washington, where does it go from here? Short-term, I think the goal with John-Michael Liles is twofold.
First is to very quickly get him up to speed and started with the power play. After watching 40 games of talented forwards try different things, different personnel, different everything and still fail miserably on the power play, it became increasingly clear that the Canes desperately lacked a quarterback type who could create offense and get the power past the very basic “move the puck to the next station and look again” funk that it had settled into. Ryan Murphy has all of the tools to become a good power play quarterback – someday. He just is not there yet. If he can find a rhythm, confidence and chemistry with the other players, the power play is the place where John-Michael Liles could pay nearly immediate dividends. Even something in the neighborhood of average would be a significant improvement for the Canes.
Second, Liles needs to find his way back to a good place defensively. After being in the doghouse with management/coaches, being blasted by the merciless Toronto media and being ostracized and banished to the AHL, there is work to be done here. I think it takes some kind of ritual of taking a dozen consecutive showers and then stepping out onto a blue and white floor mat while wearing red, black and white bath robe followed by some kind of voodoo ceremony involving Leafs’ bobbleheads and then putting on a fresh new Canes jersey to start fresh. More seriously, he needs to shake off his past and get back to just playing hockey. The Canes and the calmer environment have worked wonders for offensive defenseman in bad times in very similar situations. Reference Joe Corvo (1st time) and Joni Pitkanen.
The first mile post is working his way back to playing respectable 3rd pairing minutes defensively without too many incidents. His ceiling could include more ice time with the Canes better forwards and helping generate offense off the rush, but if he simply holds down a 3rd pairing spot and is okay defensively and can help the power play, he already makes the team better. Everything else is gravy.
Topic 5: What is next for Canes GM Jim Rutherford?
I have been yammering for 5-6 weeks now that the 2 areas for greatest potential improvement for the Canes were adding a puck-moving, ideally 2nd pairing defenseman to play with Hainsey and adding a 3rd-line center. Liles in current reclamation project form is NOT a 2nd pairing defenseman, but his addition attempts to accomplish some of the same objectives on the cheap (giving up only another player who really did not have a spot in the lineup and cost a lot). Liles should help with the power play, and he offers puck-moving ability in veteran form for the 3rd pairing with the possibility to take on more minutes if he finds a groove or if the team needs to gamble for offense a bit when losing in the 3rd period.
So at least until we get a couple weeks to assess if, what and how much Liles helps, it is time to turn focus the C3 slot. My original job description was a player who could play decent 2-way hockey but also skate with and play offense with Jeff Skinner. That leads to a couple asides. Yes, I realize that Jeff Skinner is not currently playing on the 3rd (2B) line, but I think he ultimately belongs there and ends up there if the Canes can surround him with enough offense there. I like Riley Nash. I think he is having a great season within his limitations. But I think his offensive ceiling is that of a 4th-line center. As for Skinner, yes I realize that he is scoring in bunches and serving as the ignition switch for the offense these days. But in between he continues to be a work in progress defensively in between scoring binges as evidenced by the big minus stretch in the 2nd half of December. If you can get Skinner a couple of at least decent offensive line mates, I do not think his offensive will take that much of a hit with a move to the 3rd (or 2B as I called it previously) line. He creates much of his offense with individual plays, and he would still get his regular helping of 1st unit power play time. As yet another aside, I continue to think that it would be interesting to try Ruutu centering a 3rd line with Skinner. It is not as if Ruutu has made himself indispensable in a role on another line. The risk/cost of trying him there is minimal, and there is at least a chance of striking gold and eliminating the need to make a trade to fill the hole left when Elias Lindholm did not live up to Rutherford’s summer prophecy that had him slotted as a productive 3rd-line center.
So getting back to the point, assuming no luck (or trial even) with Ruutu in the C3 slot, I think that is the position with the greatest upgrade potential and what Rutherford is working on right now.
So what is the job description for this player:
--Must be a decent 2-way center. 2-way means exactly that. The player needs to bring more offensive ability than Riley Nash otherwise there is no need to upgrade.
--Must be an above average skater who can stay in the play with Skinner off the rush. Nash at least brought this capability when paired with Skinner at the start of the season.
I know everyone grumbles whenever another recycle trade is proposed, but Matt Cullen is a pretty good example of the skill set desired. He would help anchor the line defensively, but he is not a checking line only center. And even at his age he still has the wheels such that he would not be left in the dust when Skinner started motoring up the ice. I really think the ability to just be in the play is priority 1 for line mates for Skinner. He generally creates offense by himself, but when he spends entire games doing it 1 vs. 2 from the blue line in off the rush even he can only do so much. And as an added side bonus, Cullen is capable of playing the point on the power play which would present an option in addition to Liles to jump start that. As example only, the good version of Jussi Jokinen is another decent example of the type of 2-way player that I think the Canes want for this slot. If I can find the time, I was going to take a tour through other rosters/situations to see who else might be available.
After a crazy win, big news and a bunch of writing catch-up, we get real Canes hockey again tomorrow night. My hope is to post a game preview by lunchtime.
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