With the pre-Olympic trade deadline approaching, the possibility exists for a mini-flurry of moves. It will be interesting to see what happens league-wide. My hunch is that it will not be much. Any rush to get a trade done now only gets 3ish more games from that player versus waiting another 3 weeks. I just do not see it as being that much different than a normal season's 2 weeks before the real deadline. But I guess we will see how it works out this week.
First, to be clear, I do NOT have access to inside team information, rumor sources, etc. Everything that I write this time of year is my own intuition, research, staying up to date on what the team says and what I think could make sense based on the combination of these things.
For the Canes too, I think the most likely outcome of this week trade-wise is a quiet week. This said, there are certainly conversations going on in a few areas that could yield a trade sooner rather than later:
1) In net. Cam Ward is officially back in the mix which puts the Canes back at 3 goalies. After a rough start from Justin Peters in his last start and Muller's decision to pass on trying it again, best guess is that Peters is currently available for any kind of return. Scrivens recently yielded a mid-round pick, so it seems that Rutherford would be luck to get something like a 4th round pick for him. UNLESS...Is it possible that the Canes are instead shopping Ward? That deal seems complicated and more likely to happen (if ever) during the summer. But if he gets a start this week and looks decent in it, I guess that possibility at least comes into play. There is absolutely no way that Khudobin goes anywhere short-term. Put simply, the Canes are pushing for a playoff spot, and until Ward proves otherwise, he is the team's best chance to win hockey games.
2) C3. I identified this as a potential upgrade back in November. In a recent interview, Rutherford acknowledged that he was considering options to add another forward preferably a 3rd-line center. My hunch is that Rutherford will not go all-out to win a bidding war for a specific player at any cost, but rather that he will opportunistically add the best player that he can get while spending as little futures as possible. The best time to do this will likely be right at the deadline once the game of musical chairs is about to stop, and a couple teams do not get great offers for their rental assets. Dave Legwand would be a current-year rental. Matt Cullen or Shawn Horcoff would bring additional years. There are some other options that could give Rutherford the chance to be opportunistic and cheap on deadline day while still improving the team.
3) Tuomo Ruutu. He has been playing better of late and more noticeable physically. But all that really means is that he is playing well as a 4th-line limited minutes energy player. That would be great if he was making $1.5M, but he is making $5M. He just looks like he is laboring physically doing everything he can to play the end line to end line physical hockey that was his trademark in better times. As I said before, I think the test point for him is the start of next season. Might 3 months off to fully recover from a couple surgeries rejuvenate him physically? The market for him is probably not great right now, but I think if Rutherford can just pass on this roll of the dice and save a decent chunk of the roughly $12M on Ruutu's contract through 2015-16, he will do the deal. At this point, it is not so much about return trade-wise. It is about trying to save $5-8M over the next couple years.
4) Top 4 defenseman? With the Liles/Gleason trade and decent depth available with 7 at the NHL level and Murphy available in Charlotte, I think Rutherford is done with the defense specifically in terms of pushing for the 2014 playoffs. But might Rutherford use the conversations and trade frenzy in early March to build for the future? It could make a lot of sense. The Canes are set at 1st pairing with Faulk (RFA this summer) and Sekera (1 more year on his contract). And the team is reasonably set on depth with Harrison, Liles and Murphy signed and Bellemore RFA this summer. But Hainsey is an unrestricted free agent this summer, and while the other players have been adequate in the top 4 with Hainsey, I think Bellemore and Liles are both more like #4/#5 types who might be able to play top 4 with the right chemistry/partner. And if you fast forward to a summer that sees each and every big market team get about $7M more (plus whatever they have coming off contract), it is likely to be a real challenging summer to add a top 4 defenseman on the open market. I think there is a good chance that the Canes just re-up with Hainsey, but if you wanted to add another top 4 to play with him or possibly replace him, I think the shopping could be cheaper on the March trade market than it is in this summer's bidding wars. Might Rutherford make a surprise move to add someone under contract for the next few years? There are some options. In Calgary, Dennis Wideman's contract is a little high at $5.25M/year, but at least he is locked in. Trevor Daley would be a steal out of Dallas because of his pretty well-rounded play and his $3M/year bargain contract, but because of that he could be expensive trade-wise. If I had to try to name the biggest potential for a surprise/shocker from the Canes in the trade hustle, this would be it. Because of the price tags and other bidders, the probability is low, but I feel pretty confident saying that in doing the usual trade deadline week phone calls, that the blue line will be on his "it can't hurt to check" list.
My most likely deals to happen this week would be:
1) Justin Peters to ? for a 5th round pick and/or possibly a conditional pick that is higher if the team re-signs him this summer. That gives a team out of the playoff hunt a chance to audition him inexpensively and maybe the Canes to get a bigger return if he works out.
2) Tuomo Ruutu traded in a move aimed more at cutting future salary than getting someone to help the playoff push.
What say you Canes fans?
--With Cam Ward back in the mix, do you think Peters now gets dealt for whatever possible even if it is just a late round pick? Or could we see a bigger surprise with a healthy Ward being the goalie to go?
--Do you think there is a market at all for Tuomo Ruutu? Do you think I am right that Rutherford will let him go with only a $ savings in return? Or do you think he will be more patient to see if he can rebound after a summer off?
--Who do you like for the center addition that is probably the most likely deal to happen at some point?
--Do you think I am right that Rutherford is more likely to wait until closer to the final trade deadline?
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