First, my heartfelt well wishes go out to Joni Pitkanen and his family. In my role as pretend hockey writer and analyst, I spend most of my words here trying to figure out this or that in terms of the Canes on-ice performance. But it is important to take a step back from that and remember there is a human part of all of this. I am wishing Joni a full a recovery and will absolutely thrilled next fall to see him in an NHL uniform be it a Canes uniform or someone else's. I already have 2 blogs up about the hockey side of the situation that you can find in the archives, so I will leave it at that right now.
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Here are the results from the “You Pick ‘Em” Canes roster poll.
At forward, I counted EStaal, Semin, Tlusty, Skinner, JStaal and Ruutu as sure things. The votes yielded Dwyer (91%), Westgarth (78%), Lindholm (83%), Gerbe (76%), Nash (58%), Bowman (52%) and Dalpe (49%) to make a forward roster of 13 players.
But there were a bunch of other players in the hunt with Dvorak (47%), Rask (39%) and Palushaj (30%) in the next tier. Also receiving decent consideration were Tolchinsky (25%), Boychuk (21%), McGinn (21%), Brett Sutter (20%) and Welsh (19%).
JaStaal, Terry, Brody Sutter, Blanchard, Woods and Shugg all clocked in at under 10%.
On defense, things were not quite as wide open. I gave automatics to Faulk, Sekera, Gleason, Harrison and (at the time) Pitkanen and gave people the option to pick 2 or 3 more depending on whether they wanted to slot someone in Pitkanen’s spot. The pecking order was Komisarek (96%), Murphy (84%) and Bellemore (51%). The next highest defensemen clocked in only at 5%.
Finally, Ward got the starting job with Khudobin (97%) beating out Peters (3%).
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I already took a shot at how the opening night roster would lay out with a couple variable slots heading into camp.
You can find forward blog here. I will need to redo the defense version because my original still had Joni Pitkanen included. But allow me to come at it from a different angle and offer my opinion on the probability of each player making the team, so not what I think will happen but the odds. Note that I am not accounting for new injuries which obviously would change things and I am not counting 9-game auditions for junior players destined to go back to juniors before their NHL contract kicks in.
At forward, I think Dwyer and Westgarth (in limited #13 role) are about as close to a sure thing as possible , so call them 98%. I think the next tier is Lindholm (80%), Gerbe (70%), Nash (60%) and Bowman (60%). The team seems to want Lindholm to stick, but having never played in even a preseason NHL game yet, you just do not know for sure what the 18-year old can do against NHL competition. I think Gerbe’s style of play and NHL give him a head start. Nash’s advantage is his adequate play last season combined with lack of other options at center. (I don’t think the team will let Rask compete for the 4th-line center spot. I think he would instead go to Charlotte to play more minutes and continue his development.) I think Bowman gets a leg up on the other similarly aged players by virtue of his greater NHL experience and also his 1-way contract that means the team pays him the same regardless of whether he plays in the NHL or AHL.
In the next tier, I would put players with some NHL experience but on the outside looking in on the roster chase. Here I give Dvorak a 50%, Dalpe a 30% and Palushaj a 30% chance. Dvorak is highest only because I think his path to a roster spot is simplest and most direct. If he proves better than the other options at killing penalties, I think he could win a roster spot on this skill alone because of the need and lack of experienced options. Dalpe or Palushaj would probably have to beat out Gerbe or Bowman to win a spot.
The next tier is comprised of 2 very different kinds of players. First are players who are of NHL age so to speak but with limited experience and not much success thus far climbing the Canes depth chart past the AHL level. The second category includes the most talented of the Canes prospects who are still likely a couple years away. From the veteran category, there is Brett Sutter (10%), Zach Boychuk (10%), Jared Staal (5%) and Jeremy Welsh (20%). Welsh has the odd contractual advantage of being on a 1-way contract for $1M, so he costs the same whether he plays in the AHL or NHL. From the kid category, there is McGinn (10%) and Rask (15%). Both are a year or 2 early, probable Canes NHL roster players in the future but probably a bit early at least to start the 2013-14 campaign. The positive on McGinn is his Tuomo Ruutu-lite pesky and physical style of play. The downside is that he has never played above Canadian juniors and must make a big step forward. The upside for Rask is his skill and talent and decent NHL frame. The downside is that he has played only a handful of games above the Canadian juniors level (in AHL last year) and also that making the team could require a move to wing where he has played very little if any in his career. Note that Rask’s chance to make the team could increase significantly (25-30% maybe) if he gets a chance to compete for a slot at center. This would require Lindholm to either not work out or move to wing, or for the team to allow Rask to compete for the 4th-line center slot (primarily with Nash). My guess is that the Canes would not use Rask in a limited 4th-line role but would instead decide to send him to Charlotte to play 18-20 minutes per game and continue to develop.
I was tempted to bump Tolchinksy into the above tier but decided instead to group him with the rest of the ‘kids.’ As much as I like Tolchinsky, it is 1 thing to say that the scouts missed in leaving him out of the top 210 18-year-olds in the draft (which I think they did) and that he has a decent chance to make the NHL eventually. It is another thing to say he can do it at 18. I give Tolchinsky and the rest of this group a 1ish % chance to REALLY surprise and make the roster. This said, if I was in Vegas and given the chance to bet anything hockey with 100-to-1 odds on Tolchinsky, I would put $1 on it.
Defense is a little cleaner. Especially with the Pitkanen injury, Komisarek is just about a lock to make the team. My working assumption is that the Canes will add another veteran defenseman (not a tryout type player but rather a roster guy) who would also be a lock. That gets the team back to 6 defensemen and looking for a 7th. If I had to split it, I would go Murphy (45%), Bellemore (45%) and everyone else (10%) led by Flood. It depends obviously on how players play in camp but also a bit I think on what direction Muller wants to go for depth. If Murphy can help the power play and Muller plans to actually skate 7 defensemen, then Murphy gets an edge. If instead, the #7 guy is in the traditional press box seat (meaning the team only skates 6), then it makes more sense to use a veteran for that and get Murphy 20+ minutes per game in the AHL to continue to improve his defensive game. Or if Muller finds his power play point help either by using forwards or via the likely to be added defenseman and just wants safe and sound for the #7 spot, that screams Bellemore.
In goal, I think only an injury could keep Khudobin from being the opening backup. Even if Murphy looked way better in preseason, I do not think the team would completely scrap the decision it made to sign Khudobin this summer based on a handful of exhibition games.
With the first session of training camp from 9-10:30am this morning, the battle to win the open spots is officially underway. It should be an interesting 3-4 weeks with the volume of open spots there to be won by whoever earns them.
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