Despite the disappointing week (1-2 record in 3 home games) leading into the Olympic break, the Carolina Hurricanes are still very much in the playoff chase nearing the final quarter of the season.
But what does it take to make the playoffs?
Corey Sznajder at Shutdown Line (www.shutdownline.com) who always does a great job with advanced stats and numerical analysis in general broke down the current point pace in a recent article that you can find
HERE. In debating it a bit on Twitter he settled on something like 92-93 being the most likely minimum bar to get into the playoffs. I think that makes sense, but my gut is still saying 94-95 points just because there are enough teams in the mix and a couple are bound to get hot.
For the sake of argument, let's say it takes 94 points. So what does it take for the Canes to get to 94? The team would need 33 points in 25 games which equates to a 16-8-1 record. When you look at the Canes gauntlet of a schedule that includes 6 back-to-backs and tough road matchups against Pit, Bos, Chi, SJ, LA and Ana to go with a bunch of 50/50 games against other Metro Division playoff contenders, it looks challenging.
So what would it take for it to happen? I think very simply, it would take the Canes' entire roster to start firing on all cylinders at the same time and sustain it for a full month without any lulls. Even just an every 5th game lull that results in a loss will be too much. There are enough challenges in the schedule between the back-to-backs and elite opponents that there will be a few losses even with good efforts. If the team then piles on a few bad losses, the total will quickly become too high.
When you look down the roster, I think it goes like this:
1) Tlusty/EStaal/Semin. This line needs to find a groove like their hot streak in 2012-13 and ride it consistently. Of late, their scoring totals have been good, but it has been too much a story of very hot or invisible. This hot and cold stretch is fine for mounting point totals but does not work for stringing together 3-4 weeks of winning hockey. The line was disappointing in both losses last week and quiet nights from them were a consistent theme in most of the January losses. Most important for this line is to find the will and way to be a difference-maker on the nights that things do not come easy.
2) Jordan Staal. I still think the team gets better if he can lead a defense-first line that still scores and leaves Jeff Skinner to lead a scoring 3rd line that preys on matchups and provides 2nd-line type of scoring out of the 3rd line. But regardless of line mates, Jordan Staal needs to lead a line that at least breaks even nightly against 1 of the other team's best lines be it by scoring, shutdown defense or whatever else it takes.
3) Jeff Skinner. He needs to find another of his scoring binges especially of the clutch 3rd period game-winning variety. He has done exactly this multiple times already in the 2013-14 season, so it seems reasonable and within reach.
4) Depth forwards. The Canes need to get minutes, strong play and contributions from the bottom 2 lines. With the busy schedule, rolling only 3 lines is a recipe for wearing down and looking real sluggish in the slew of back-to-backs, 3 games in 4 nights, etc. that litter the schedule. Bowman/Nash/Ruutu was phenomenal last week. I think Manny Malhotra is overslotted in the C3 slot, but his skill set lends itself to eating up some of the hard minutes starting with draws in the defensive zone
5) 2 goalies. With a busy schedule and 6 back-to-backs, it seems like the Canes are going to need at least 5-6 games from Ward (not ruling out the possibility that he finds a groove, gets hot and plays more). The Canes cannot afford to give away even a few games while he rounds into form. The margin for error is too small. Khudobin needs to pick up where he left off, and Ward needs to find it quickly for the Canes to have a chance.
6) Sekera/Faulk. I am on record as saying that Faulk has looked less mobile of late and that it has significantly impacted his play. Word from Sochi so far is that he got the 1st game off and will also be a healthy scratch in the 2nd game. As much as I want to see him play in the Olympics, from a Canes standpoint medium intensity practices to stay in shape minus wear and tear of a busy Olympic game schedule could be a good thing for the Canes prospects. Except for a bad goalie night, a bad outing from Sekera/Faulk is probably the most direct path to a Canes loss. This pairing needs to find a groove of consistent good hockey down the stretch without the occasional rough game.
7) Special teams. I think it takes a power play surge to push the Canes over the top in some of the 50/50 games. The personnel really is not that deficient. Muller and company need to find a way to get more production from it.
When you sort through the 7 items, it really simplifies as follows:
--The margin for error is very small. The Canes need to be consistently great down the stretch with an equal emphasis on "consistently" and "great" to have a shot at the playoffs.
--This will require each and every 1 of the team's top players to play at his highest level for the month plus left in the regular season.
What say you Canes fans?
--Does a 94-point target sound about right or could it be a little lower?
--Does needing something like a 16-8-1 mark against a challenging schedule look as daunting as I see it?
--Can this team get everything firing on all cylinders at the same time and pull it off?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
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