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Canes trade possibilities at quarter mark of season

November 14, 2013, 9:42 AM ET [16 Comments]
Matt Karash
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Nearing the 20-game mark in the NHL season, it is that time of year when the early trade wires heat up. Teams have had enough time to assess what they have and in some cases realize that it is not what they hoped for when they built it over the summer. From the disappointments so far in the 2013-14 season, we have already had Buffalo deal 1 star, jettison a regular to the AHL and blow up management and coaching in Buffalo. With patience wearing thin for the rebuilding project to finally yield results, Edmonton has made 1 trade and has been 1 of the noisiest teams in terms of rumors with 1 trade (Smid) done, a young star in Yakupov in the dog house for sure and allegedly on the trading block and players like Hemsky and Gagner taking their regular turn on the rumor mill. Nearing the ¼ mark of the season other teams are less desperate but looking to fill a need or 2 if the opportunity presents itself.

From the Canes standpoint, I think the summary goes like this:

--The Canes have no glaring holes or “must fix” problems that force GM Jim Rutherford to work aggressively to get something done.

--The newly-created blue line has been good and there is even depth behind it with Tim Gleason more out of the lineup than in due to injuries and Mike Komisarek becoming a regular in Brind’Amour’s after practice skates for players not in the lineup on game days.

--The Canes do need to play better than .500 to make the playoffs, but there seems to be significant upside built into the current roster with Jeff Skinner and at least 1 of 2 goalies closer to return from injury and the hopefully inevitable increase in scoring from the top line.

--The most likely answer is that the Canes will stand pat and not make any moves near-term.

But that is a very short and unexciting blog, so after 1st acknowledging that a move is not required and therefore reasonably unlikely what could make sense? I think there are a few interesting hypotheticals and general directions.

I think in terms of additions, it is the same list that I spelled out a few weeks back. With the offense continuing to sputter, the Canes could possibly benefit from 1 more scoring-oriented forward. And thought I am not sure how/where such a player would fit in the lineup, another puck-moving defenseman could theoretically boost the offense and power play (but not sure how you get him into the lineup). Finally, the shuffling of players presents the opportunity to swap players that are not working for players that might and gain some financial flexibility going forward.

So what might make sense?

As much as I like Tuomo Ruutu, he is struggling right now. The effort and compete level are there just like they always have been, but he just looks a step slower and is doing nothing offensively. There is reason to hope that maybe he was just delayed by missing most of training camp and is off to a slow start. But now a full month into playing games plus a week or so of practice prior to that, the hope that he is just delayed is at least nearing the stage in which it gets called into question. Is it possible that 2 hip surgeries, another lower body injury and a career of rugged play have caught up with him? Or is he about ready to round into form, assume his role as a top 6 physical forward and start chipping in on the score sheet? The concern with Ruutu is that he is slotted high salary-wise with $5M due to him for this year plus 2 more. At some point the risk of his contract starts to outweigh the potential upside if he can refind his top form. Right now, there are a handful of similarly priced struggling forwards available that could match up for the standard “struggling and might benefit from a change of scenery” trade. Edmonton is 1 potential partner. Ales Hemsky would bring a top 6 capable forward and another skilled piece for the power play. The more subtle move here is the fact that Hemsky is only signed through 2013-14. The deal would basically get Rutherford a different struggling top 6 to try out for this year and freedom from the remaining 2 years of Ruutu’s contract. If Hemsky works out, he could be re-signed, probably for less than his current deal. If he does not work out, he disappears next summer and Rutherford gets $5M of financial flexibility to use for something else. The other name being regularly bandied about in Edmonton is Sam Gagner. His contract is nearly identical to Ruutu’s with 2 more years remaining about near $5M. He too is struggling but when playing well is a gifted offensive center. Despite a ton of experience, he is only 24. While maybe a little bit light on offense the Gerbe/JStaal/Dwyer line seems to fit together well, has developed some chemistry and even when not scoring has been pretty solid defensively. If you paired Gagner with Skinner and let them have at opponents’ lesser defenders matchup-wise, could they go lights out scoring-wise? Gagner is a much bigger commitment and something to think through with 2 more years on his contract. It would require some thought on the role for Lindholm, probably making him a right wing for the foreseeable future.

The other interesting situation is the defense. First and most importantly, the work that Jim Rutherford did over the summer has paid dividends. The defense is much improved and in my opinion the single greatest reason for the Canes early –season success. Had you told me in September that the Canes would be minus Khudobin and Ward and struggling to score especially the top players, I would have figured the team would have dug a big hole in the standings by now. But instead, riding a defense that pretty regularly gives its goalie a chance is a seeing good strings of allowing 2 or fewer goals, the Canes are at least treading water right now hoping to sail when they get a few more players healthy.

So there is definitely no need for desperation on the blue line. 8 defenseman is 1 more than the norm for the roster, but so far it seems to fit okay both salary-wise and roster-wise. And with the emergence of Bellemore and Murphy, there are no big holes to patch in the 6 who take the ice each night. But there are 2 things that stand out to me. First, at $4M per year for 2 more years, Tim Gleason is clearly priced as a top 4 defenseman. But I am not so sure that he is right now on this team. The perfectly matched time line of Tim Gleason and Brett Bellemore injuries has not seen them in the lineup together. Gleason started the season hurt while Bellemore thrived. Then Gleason returned right when Bellemore was hurt. And then right when Bellemore returned Gleason went back on the shelf. Sometime in the next week or so, the team is tracking toward having both healthy. My guess is that this will let the secret out of the bag that Brett Bellemore has in fact stolen the #4 defenseman spot until his play warrants otherwise. With Harrison and Murphy playing well individually and also seeming to have some chemistry, I think it is a very real possibility that Tim Gleason is the #7 defenseman on this team at this point in time. First, there is a good chance that Gleason will win back a spot in the top 4, but my question is this – Is he enough better than Brett Bellemore? They are similar in that both are big, physical stay-home types. And from everything I have seen so far, I just think Bellemore has an edge mobility-wise which is important for playing in the top 4 matched up against other teams’ best lines. Most impressive to me was how unnoticeable Bellemore was (in a good way) logging a ton of minutes against a Colorado team that can fly up the ice.

So you can see where this is going. Might Tim Gleason be trade bait at this point? He has a no-trade clause that ends this season, so that could render any of what Rutherford might want to do irrelevant until next summer, but I guess the possibility is there. The only other option would be to trade Komisarek which seems okay since he is 8th on the depth chart right now and not playing anyway. But at $800k salary, with minimal return trade-wise and without much NHL-experienced depth in the AHL, I think the team is more likely to keep him as relatively inexpensive depth and as an insurance policy.

With the bottom half of the Canes defense roster consisting of very similar players in Bellemore, Harrison, Gleason and Komisarek, minus the no-trade clause limitation, I think it could make sense to move Gleason partially to gain financial flexibility going forward and partly to get another player who will see the ice.

So assuming the no-trade clause could be worked around, what might Jim Rutherford do?

This is a complicated stretch but I think there are a couple possibilities:

--Edmonton again. The Oilers are thin on the defensive kind of defenseman. They seemingly could benefit from some additional veteran leadership. Could Gleason fit?

--Modest trade for futures and financial flexibility. Other than something slightly bigger with Edmonton, would Rutherford be willing to risk decreasing his defensive corps to 7 in the name of future financial flexibility by trading Gleason for a modest collection of futures? The $4M frees up money to re-sign Hainsey and even have a bit left over.

It is an aside and probably separate from any Gleason dealings, but for the right price (not his current price), I actually like John-Michael Liles. He brings offense and puck-moving ability that might benefit the Canes offense and power play. At this point, I am sure Toronto is willing to eat salary, so he could cost as little as about $1.9M if Toronto eats the max ½ salary. The issue is that even at half salary, Liles price at $1.9M is a little bit too high just for depth, so he would seemingly need a playing roster spot to justify his cost. Per my comments above, with as good as the defense is playing right now, I would not tinker with it trying to gain offense at the risk of breaking it.

My best guess is that the Canes patiently wait for the return of a few injured players and hopefully a scoring surge from Eric Staal’s line and push another month into the season before pulling the trigger on any deals. While the group is still a little light on scoring, the emergence of the Bowman/Malhotra/Dvorak line has made the team deep at forward in terms of solid 2-way play. And so far that seems to be a winning recipe.

My guess is that the discussions that Rutherford is having right now center around swapping Ruutu for a similarly struggling top 6 forward who might benefit from a change in scenery, but that Rutherford will choose to be patient and give Ruutu another couple weeks to round into form.

What say you Canes fans? Riding a 3-0-1 winning streak right now still minus starting goalies, Jeff Skinner and 1st-line scoring, would you be content with the current team through November at least? Or is now the time to shuffle a bit possibly to gain future financial flexibility in the process? Do you think I am right that at least right now, Tim Gleason is a #7 defenseman? And do you think he will ultimately win his spot back?

Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63

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