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Canes 2013 Eval Part 6: The Jordan Staal blog plus new uni thoughts

June 4, 2013, 10:48 PM ET [22 Comments]
Matt Karash
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
As a Canes fan, I guess I am required to put my 2c in today on the new uniforms that were unveiled today despite the fact that I really don't care that much. In terms of looks, I am fine with the new uniforms though I had no problem with the old ones. But it seems silly to me that there was probably some big expensive process involving a bunch of people and dozens of initial concepts only to make the final decision to basically copy the Canadian National Team uniforms almost perfectly. You can find pictures on the team web site.

But as I said, I really am not that into the whole uniform thing anyway, so back to hockey discussion and my trek through the Canes lineup doing 2013 reviews for each player...

When Canes GM Jim Rutherford pulled the trigger on a big deal to get Jordan Staal and then re-signed him long-term, the hope and expectation was that he had just locked down a strong 1-2 punch down the middle at the center position. The different complementary styles (Eric leaning more offensive and Jordan leaning more defensive) and common size and good mobility for that size were expected to make the Canes very good 2 lines deep. Put simply, it did not pan out in the abbreviated 2013 season. It was a tale of 2 Staals with Eric having (in my opinion) his best NHL season to date and Jordan struggling a bit with the transition to a new team, different line mates and a bigger role and set of responsibilities. I think those making final judgements on the trade and/or Jordan Staal’s career as a Carolina Hurricane are foolish. It was a single odd season abbreviated by the lockout and minus any kind of real training camp for a player to adapt to a new role, team, system and team mates.

But this does not mean that we shouldn’t evaluate 2013 for what it was, and in in my opinion it was mediocre at best for Jordan Staal. I give him a C+. C+ will not be good enough at 2nd line center for the Canes to find their way back to the playoffs.

So going into the season, the “taken as truth” was that Jordan Staal was an elite checking line center who would have absolutely no problem defensively. The challenge or leap for him was going to be meshing into a line being asked to score more and putting up enough points. So in giving him a C+ once would expect that he fell way short offensively. But I do not think that was the case. His scoring pace was 53 points over a full 82-game season. I would say that that is a little bit light but not horribly so. A reasonable target in terms of role and style of play for Jordan Staal would be Rod Brind’Amour. Brind’Amour’s role as a Cane was always that of a 2nd line center on a line that was not the primary scoring line, or you could alternatively call it the 1st (checking) line. Brind’Amour took on as many of the hard minutes (penalty kill, matchups against the other team’s top line, defensive zone draws in the 3rd period of tight games, etc.) as possible. Brind’Amour had a couple HUGE years in 05-06 (Cup year) and 06-07, but I think his 00-01 and 01-02 stats are interesting. In each year, the Canes had good regular seasons and made the playoffs. In each year, Brind’Amour anchored a checking leaning 2nd line (behind Francis’ top scoring line). Brind’Amour finished those years with 56 and 55 points respectively. The bigger stat was that in 22 minutes/game of ice time in the most challenging of roles he held his team even. He was minus 7 in 00-01 and plus 3 in 01-02 (note that in 05-06 he was plus 8 with 24 minutes/game of ice time). We can argue for hours about whether Staal’s 53-point pace is enough or whether it should be closer to 60 or even 65, but I think it completely misses the point of what JStaal’s role should be. Eric and his line is the top scoring line like Francis’ of years past. Jordan’s skill set naturally falls into the Brind’Amour role. He proved very capable of excelling in this role in Pittsburgh albeit with a little less pressure in terms of scoring and just in general with Crosby and Malkin in front of him. And that is where he struggled mightily in 2013. He finished 5th worst in the entire NHL at minus 18 ahead of only line mate Jeff Skinner and 4 other players. Put more directly, when Jordan Staal was on the ice at even strength for the Canes, the Canes lost and lost significantly in 2013.

In writing individual player reviews, I tried to dig up an interesting (and also meaningful) stat for each. For Jordan Staal, it was his line’s even strength effect on the Canes success. When JStaal was a minus player in a game, the Canes were a horrid 2-16-0. When he was a plus player, the Canes were 7-0-2. Finally, when JStaal was even, the team was also about even at 10-9-2. But you figure that JStaal’s plus/minus was probably better when he scored more right? Not really actually. When JStaal scored (goals or assists), the Canes were 11-11-2. So while they were better on average when JStaal did score, the game results were driven much more significantly by if the team won (or at least broke even) at even strength with his line for the game. This effect very much matches the success that the Canes had when Brind’Amour served a similar role behind Francis. Winning did not so much require Brind’Amour’s line to carry the load scoring-wise as it required them to battle to a stalemate or better against the other team’s best line for 20+ minutes every night.

Put more simply, when Jordan Staal’s line won its mini-game for the night, the team was breakeven or better. When they did not, the Canes were horrid.

I realize that there were a ton of factors that played into Jordan Staal’s plus/minus number. The team overall was not good and especially was not good defensively in 2013. Jeff Skinner continued to be a highly developed offensive talent whose defensive/2-way game is still very much a work in progress. The goaltending struggled at times. But Jordan Staal does need to take his share of heat for his minus 18. In watching the games, he was too mistake prone for his role and was mediocre at best defensively for stretches of the season. He struggled at times with things he has excelled at in the past – sorting things out in the defensive zone, winning one on one battles, etc.

I think the biggest outside factor in JStaal’s struggles were inability to gel with regular line mate Jeff Skinner. I actually expected this from the outset and called for (and was verbally beaten for it) Skinner to be put on a 3rd line that was offensively targeted leaving Jordan Staal with a more offensively limited but defensively capable set of line mates. Again, it’s not about scoring. It’s about winning or at least breaking even which would have been good enough many nights for the 2nd line with the way the 1st line was lighting it up. Ironically, I think JStaal’s season might have been cursed by the early start by Jeff Skinner. Skinner was dynamic and incredibly productive early in the season. A superficial analysis might have suggested that JStaal and Skinner were working well together. In reality, I think Jeff Skinner just went on a binge offensively that relied on little help, chemistry or anything from his line mates. It was mostly just Jeff Skinner doing what Jeff Skinner does when he gets going. I think because of this, Muller was real slow to give up on the Skinner/JStaal combination later in the season when it just was not working and was hurting the team on a regular basis. At the point where Jordan Staal was clearly laboring and the Skinner/JStaal combination was not really working anyway, I think Muller could have possibly helped JStaal get his game back into a groove by retreating a bit to a checking role that fit his skill set, with line mates that fit the job description and was comfortable based on past success in this exact role. Instead, JStaal mostly stayed with Skinner once he came back from his injury list stint and both gradually began to struggle in terms of production and more noticeably and significantly in terms of having any chemistry as a line.

My proposed recipe for early 2013-14 success for Jordan Staal is simple. Put him in a role that he is accustomed to, has thrived at and is comfortable with – that of a checking line (first NOT only) center with line mates that are capable. Ruutu is a good complementary player who forechecks well and pressures opposing offenses. Ideally you would like a little more offensive upside, but Patrick Dwyer could be a plug in less any help from the draft or summer moves. Then Muller sits him down and narrows and clarifies Jordan’s role which is quite simply to log the hard minutes, play some PK and breakeven for the night which puts the ball on the tee for the other lines. It is not clear what the options would be, but I think you then build a bit of a skating and offense-focused 3rd line around Jeff Skinner. If the Canes get Barkov with the #5 pick which is one of the possibilities, his playmaking could prove to be a decent fit for Skinner. This line looks a bit like the Whitney/Cullen/Larose line from the 05-06 regular season. Laviolette leaned very heavily minutes-wise on his top 2 lines (Brind’Amour logged 24 minutes/game that year) and EStaal’s line also played a lot, and he used the 3rd line that had skill and speed less but was very selective and good at getting them on the ice in mismatches with lesser defenders who had not chance to skate with them. He also pulled a good number of special teams minutes from the 3rd line (Whitney on PP, Larose on PK and Cullen on both) since they were playing fewer regular shifts looking for scoring matchups.

So what’s the shorter version of all my yammering?
1) Jordan Staal had a sub-par 2013 season. I rate him C+.
2) I am actually not nearly concerned about the scoring pace as the complete inability of his line to play winning or even breakeven hockey at even strength.
3) I think the key going forward is to use JStaal to his strengths as a checking (first) center with line mates who can do this too. It is not that they can’t or don’t need to score some, but the primary goal is to eat up the hard minutes and breakeven. If that is a 0-0 score that is fine.

I realize that the read time on my blogs is stretched out this time of year with people checking in sporadically, but even if it delayed, I would love to hear others' thoughts on how best to get Jordan on track for 2013-14. Will he just be fine with a regular training camp and 48 games of adjustment time? Does Skinner/JStaal just need time or do people agree with my assessment that it just isn't a great fit? Are the Canes just asking too much putting him as a #2 versus his "#3 in the shadows" role in Pittsburgh? What else?

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