I took a quick look at the 2013-14 Carolina Hurricanes schedule when it came out while I was on vacation. I finally took a closer look with regard to mapping the season and hopefully winning enough games to return to the playoffs.
First a couple quick bullets on the 2013-14 schedule specifically:
• The Canes see 20 back-to-backs which ranks 2nd only to New Jersey’s 22. That is obviously a negative.
• The Canes longest road trip is only 4 games which happens twice. Both are compressed 6-day trips.
• In terms of attendance, the schedule is reasonably friendly compared to the heavy weekday slate during the shortened 2012-13 season. My quick count is 24 of 41 home weekend games plus a New Year's Eve weekday.
When I walk through it in chronological order and try to break it into sections, I pull out a couple key segments:
Segment 1 Oct 4-19 (Gms 1-9) – “The Early Measuring Stick”
To start the season, the Canes play 7 of the first 9 against 2012-13 playoff teams including the defending champion Chicago Blackhawks and 4 other teams that won at least 1 round in the playoffs. This challenging start presents a good early measuring stick how the Canes stack up. The fairly busy stretch is also conveniently followed up by 4 days off which would be a rest day plus an opening for 3 days of practice to make improvements.
Segment 2 Oct 28-Nov 15 (Gms 12-19) – “Time to Make Hay at Home”
After back-to-back road games following the opening stretch, the Canes play 7 of their next 8 at home. The goal would be to tread water during the difficult opening stretch, use the couple days of practice to make a couple improvements and then use this home stretch to rack up points and move in the standings. The end of this stretch would also be near the 20-game mark into the season which would be a logical point for Canes GM Jim Rutherford to assess the team and decide if personnel changes are needed.
The Canes then see a stretch heavier on road games in early December followed by slightly more home games during the holidays. Coming out of the holiday season, the Canes find themselves with what could prove to be a slightly easier stretch of schedule (at least based on 2012-13 standings).
Segment 3 Jan 5-28 (Gms 43-54) – “Lottery run”
Coming out of the holidays and at about the midway point of the season, the Canes hit “lottery run” where the team plays 9 of 11 games against fellow 2013 NHL draft lottery ball owners (and non-playoff teams). If the team is not in the playoff mix at this point, this could be the last chance to climb back in. If the Canes are in good shape in the standings at this point, this would be a chance to increase the margin.
Segment 4 Jan 31-Feb 8 (Gms 45-48) – “The lead in…”
The stretch of games on both sides of the Olympic break could be significant. It is difficult to carry momentum through a 2½ week layoff, so the 2 stretches will be independent. Going into the break, the Canes play 4 games at home. A couple games included in the previous stretch make for 6 of the last 7 at home before the Olympic break. If the team can establish a decent position in the standings and play well heading into the break, for those not playing Olympic hockey it feels like a well-deserved positive rest. If the team is struggling at the time, it could become a time of discontent.
Segment 5 (Feb 27-Mar 4) (Gms 49-52) – “…The run out”
For the players who just finished 2½ weeks off, a modest 4-game road trip coming off the break will not be a big deal. But for the players who go deep in the Olympics, this stretch of NHL games will mark another week away from home on top of the previous 2½. The Canes could see a handful of key players play in Russia and then return to a West Coast trip. If the Canes are in the thick of the playoff race but minus much margin for error, I think this stretch has the potential to swing the rest of the season. If the Olympic players have trouble figuring out which way is up with the travel transitions and the team struggles, it could set the tone for the 2nd half of the season. But on the flip side, the stretch of 3 consecutive games in the LA area could serve as a chance for some team building and getting everyone on the same page for the stretch run.
The stretch run in March and early April is steady and reasonably random. Other than a single 3-game road trip, there is no other stretch of more than 2 in a row either at home or on the road. The team sees no more than 2 consecutive off days with mostly either a day of rest or none. The Canes play 3 times in the last 4 days of the regular season including a Sunday road game in Philadelphia. Ideal would be to have a playoff spot locked up by this point, but when you have missed the playoffs for 3 years running, you take nothing for granted and would be happy just to be playing games that mattered that week.
For me it is simple. For a team that missed the playoffs the previous season and will have a lot of either new or relatively inexperienced personnel in key roles, I think the start is key. If the Canes can get through the first 9 games near breakeven and then start to climb with the heavy home stretch that follows, my optimism grows. If instead, the team looks overmatched in the early games against good competition and is unable to pull ahead in the home games, then I start to think that this is another #15-25 team. Too many of those have ended up on the wrong side of 16 (playoff teams).
What 1 or 2 stretches of schedule do you think are most important?
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