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Notable injuries:
--Tuomo Ruutu will start the season on IR. The prognosis is fuzzy but it sounds like a week plus and not day-to-day. He is coming off 2 hip surgeries last year though the current lower body injury is said to be unrelated. His rugged style of play puts the over/under for games played at something like 55-60 for him.
--Tim Gleason suffered a concussion 1 week ago and as things go with concussions is out indefinitely.
--Alexander Semin has been skating but not practicing with the team. He is probably a >50% chance to start Friday’s opener, but we probably will not know for sure until Friday.
--Elias Lindholm was delayed in his training after suffering a shoulder injury in the team’s prospect camp in July. He returned and played 1 preseason game before being injured again. He has been skating after practice and not participating in practice. He is expected to start Friday’s opener, but with a setback in conditioning, minimal practice time and very little game situation work in scrimmages/preseason games, he seems destined for a limited role. There has also been talk that he might spend time in Charlotte to get up to speed.
--Jeff Skinner has been slowed for the 2nd half of training camp with a lower body injury but practiced Monday and should be on the path to start Friday.
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Expected Lines
Tlusty/EStaal/Semin. At even strength, this line was the most productive in the NHL except possibly Crosby’s line that was derailed by injury.
Gerbe/JStaal/Dwyer. This line leans defense over offense.
After that it gets questionable. It looks certain that at least to start the year Canes Coach Kirk Muller will separate Skinner and JStaal after the real rough time that they had last year bottoming out in +/-. #5 pick Elias Lindholm was expected to center this line but has been derailed by a couple injuries. He is expected to play opening night, but it is unclear in what role. For opening night, the 3rd line will probably be something like Skinner/Nash/Lindholm or Skinner/Nash/Bowman.
Expected D Pairings
Sekera/Faulk. This duo has been paired since the start of training camp and is will log a bunch of minutes as the Canes’ 1st D pairing.
Hainsey/Bellemore or Harrison or Komisarek.
2 left of Bellemore, Harrison or Komisarek.
Ryan Murphy is the wild card. He was sent to Charlotte Monday, but it is believed that this is the same LTIR math manipulations going on across the league and that he will be back and in the lineup for Friday’s opener. If he does return, it is not clear whether he plays in the bottom pairing or possibly as a 7th defenseman/power play specialist.
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Power play
Despite having what seemed like enough offensive firepower, the Canes finished 27th in the NHL in power play scoring % in 2012-13. The cast of characters is back at forward, but in swapping Corvo, McBain and Sanguinetti for Komisarek, Hainsey and Sekera there could be issues with having enough skilled defensemen to man the points and move the puck. If he manages to stay at the NHL level and in the lineup, Ryan Murphy will be the primary beneficiary of this situation. You can bet that if he is in the lineup, he will see a healthy serving of power play ice time. Ron Hainsey is another player with upside. He was a regular on the Thrashers power play way back when before Byfuglien and Enstrom started eating it all up. He seems likely to log regular power play minutes in 2013-14 simply because the Canes do not have many other options.
Because of the injuries of late, it is about impossible to figure out what the power play units look like, but I think the basics in terms of ice time go like this:
1st unit forwards: Semin, EStaal and either Tlusty (keeps line together) or Skinner.
2nd unit forwards: Tlusty or Skinner, JStaal, Gerbe for now.
Ruutu will be in the mix probably on the 2nd unit when he returns.
Point men look to be Faulk, Sekera, Hainsey and Murphy as long as he is in Raleigh.
The other defensemen (Gleason, Bellemore, Komisarek, Harrison) are not so much power play types.
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Individual player thoughts:
Cam Ward: First, he looks healthy coming off a season-ending knee injury last season. He played well in the last 2 preseason games and looks ready to start the season. If you play in leagues where goalie stats past wins (Save %, GAA, ShO) matter, I am not sure Cam Ward is a great option. I think the Canes will be better defensively, but I still think the team is built more to win 4-3 than 3-2. Also to note, the Canes addition of Anton Khudobin could keep Ward’s start total in a more reasonable 60+ range instead of the 70+ that became the norm when the team was trying to fight its way into the playoff race and had no other option in net. Spin: If leagues that start 2 goalies and use most of the starting 30, Ward has the potential to be a difference-maker as a #2 if the Canes surprise to the upside in terms of wins.
Tlusty/EStaal/Semin: This line was as productive as any in the NHL at even strength last season. Don’t believe me? Go look at scoring stats and back out power play scoring. Jiri Tlusty is a challenge to value this season. He scored at a 40-goal pace last season which seems high. Tlusty’s greatest skill set is his underrated hockey IQ. Awhile back he looked very solid on a checking line with Brandon Sutter. And his scoring looked about like a checking line forward. Then he moved up to play with Eric Staal (before Semin arrived). He still looked defensively capable and his scoring got a boost. Then when Semin arrived Tlusty was arguably the greatest beneficiary of Semin’s incredible playmaking. As long as he stays on this line, I think he is a 30-goals scorer who could also see his assists rise. But if the Semin or EStaal were injured all bets are off. And if the Canes start shuffling lines and Tlusty falls to LW on a more checking-oriented JStaal line (where he actually could fit well), his scoring production could suffer. With the addition of another elite forward in Semin, Eric Staal suddenly looked like a 100-point scorer. Alexander Semin chameleoned himself into a bit of a pass-first playmaker and played at a point per game pace. If pinned down, I would put EStaal at 90 points for 2013-14 and Semin at about the same. Remember that even if their even strength scoring slows a bit, there is plenty of room to make it up with just modest improvement in power play scoring.
Spin: I would not draft Tlusty for 40 goals. His scoring is a bit situational and therefore subject to change. I think EStaal and Semin are solid. I think Semin is potentially a player with upside even from last season’s pace. If he starts to shoot the puck just a bit more, I think his goal total will revert back closer to where it was, and if the power play gets going, he could lead the team in power play points and see a significant jump there. The (hopefully minor) health issue heading into the season is a bit of a concern, but I think he has the potential for significant upside past a point per game.
Nathan Gerbe: If you are looking for a late round flyer or depth offense on the cheap, I think Gerbe is an interesting player to either pick up if you have a deep bench or watch if you do not have room. He showed great chemistry with JStaal in preseason and notched 3 goals. In his current role, he has the benefit of ice time, decent (not top tier offensively) line mates and even probably some scraps of power play ice time. I don’t think a 40-45 point season is too much of a stretch if he maintains his spot in the lineup.
Jordan Staal: Last year, the Canes tried to pair him and Jeff Skinner. It might have boosted his scoring a bit, but otherwise it did not work. I think JStaal is going to have a much better 2013-14 season, but I think it will be a little bit more in the role of elite checking line center similar to his role in Pittsburgh. This is great for winning hockey games but could be less so for fantasy hockey scoring. I look for about 55 points from him.
Patrick Dwyer: He is a solid hockey player but less so of a fantasy hockey player. When boosted to 2nd line for much of last year, his scoring really did not respond (16 points in 46 games). I think he helps the team but not so much fantasy hockey player with a point ceiling probably not higher than 30.
--Jeff Skinner: Do you want safety or big upside potential with risk in your 2nd tier of forwards. Skinner has 60-65-point scoring potential but also a big list of question marks. Can he rebound from a subpar 2012-13 season? Who even will be his line mates if he stays on the 3rd line and will they provide enough complementary skill to help him? Can he steer clear of concussions after incurring 3 in 3 years? The guy still has elite offensive ability, so if he gets kicked to the curb he could be a difference-maker but I would not pay full price for his potential ceiling given the risks.
--Elias Lindholm: If you are looking for a bunch of fantasy upside in a rising star, I think I would be inclined to look elsewhere. I think Lindholm will be a good NHL player, and I think (it is not a sure thing) he will contribute at the NHL level in 2013-14, but especially at this early stage of his development, I think he looks more like Brandon Sutter than Nicklas Backstrom. I think the defense and sound play could come quickly, but the offense might take awhile. The setback physically this summer also will not help in terms of him hitting the ground running in the NHL.
On defense, I do not foresee any 50-point defensemen, but in deep leagues, I think there could be some diamonds in the rough:
--Justin Faulk: He is a good young NHL defensemen who continues to get better in all aspects of the game. He is not a pure offensive player in the Dan Boyle or Sergei Gonchar category. But what would you expect from a decent well-rounded defenseman who leads his team in ice time, plays on at least an average scoring team if not better and gets a healthy amount of power play ice time? That is what Faulk is. Last year he scored at an 11-goal/22-assist pace (for full 82-game season). I would expect improvement upon that but nothing earth-shattering.
--Andrej Sekera: He is in exactly the same boat as Faulk as his partner on the pairing likely to play all situations and lead the team in ice time. His scoring pace was about 27 points last season but lighter on goals, so I would expect a modest increase to that.
--Ron Hainsey. For deep leagues, he could prove to be a diamond in the rough. His 0 goals and 30-point scoring pace do not look fantasy worthy, but his situation should be better in Carolina. He should get a decent amount of power play time out of lack of any other options and as a #3 defenseman will log a good number of minutes.
--Ryan Murphy: He is the wild card with the greatest upside. The risk is that a slow start could see him in Charlotte of the AHL in 2 weeks to continue his development. But the upside is there because the Canes are so short on power play defensemen. If he plays a few games into the regular season and looks good on the power play, the team might be forced to keep him at the NHL level for that reason alone. I have leaned negative on Murphy’s ability to play defense well enough at age 20 to stay on the NHL roster this season, but with his offensive upside his situation is definitely one to watch fantasy hockey-wise.
Matt’s quick opinions:
1) I really like Alexander Semin especially where he gets downgraded a bit because of any of the silly Russian risk, new contract worries, etc. If he can get healthy and stay healthy, I think a greater level of comfort in Raleigh (remember he came in with no training camp after the lockout and fit pretty well) and an improved power play could vault his scoring. Draft (or trade for him) at a 75-point level and then hope for 100.
2) Nathan Gerbe offers a lot of upside in deep leagues where he is undrafted. His situation is very good, and he has enough offensive ability that 50 points is not out of the question.
3) Watch the combination of the Canes power play and the defensemen. The team seems to have enough skill at forward to be above average on the power play, but it was not last season. If the power play starts clicking, the 3 defensemen who are not considered offensive types (Hainsey, Sekera, Faulk) could see a boost in scoring. And though it could go either way, the Ryan Murphy situation is worth keeping an eye on.
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