Per my fantasy hockey preview blog yesterday, in the next few days I will put up a placeholder blog where I will make regular entries on the Hurricanes with a fantasy hockey slant to include things like line combinations, injury updates, hot/cold trends, etc.
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The opening night roster puzzle pieces are slowly falling into place. Joni Pitkanen was placed on LTIR yesterday. Ryan Murphy who left only on paper was recalled from the AHL, and Matt Corrente was placed on waivers to join the Checkers. The expected last domino is the signing of Radek Dvorak. That has not officially happened yet, but he is still practicing with the team, so it seems likely. Dvorak would bring the roster to the max 23.
In injury news, Jeff Skinner and Elias Lindholm are both practicing with the team and seem to be on target to play Friday. Per previous reports, Tim Gleason (concussion) and Tuomo Ruutu (lower body) are both out for Friday. That leaves Alexander Semin as the only player still in injury limbo probably not to be decided until Friday afternoon.
Based on practice and assuming Semin plays and Dvorak is signed, expected lines are:
Tlusty/EStaal/Semin
Gerbe/JStaal/Dwyer
Skinner/Nash/Bowman
Dvorak or Murphy/Sutter/Lindholm
The top 2 lines are set. The bottom 2 lines have been cobbled together gradually as players have returned from injury, and they have received very little run time in preseason games. As such, these 2 lines will likely be in flux early in the season as Muller works to get the previously injured players up to speed and find combinations that work.
The defense is still a bit fuzzy and might become clearer after practice today once Murphy is reinserted. Best guess is:
Sekera/Faulk
Hainsey/Bellemore
Harrison/Murphy and/or Komisarek with Murphy seeing a healthy helping of power play time if he is in the lineup.
Ward starts in net but Khudobin should be more active than past Canes backups.
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You can find part 1 of my Carolina Hurricanes 2013-14 season preview
HERE.
As we march quickly toward the start of real hockey that counts in the standings in 2 days, it still feels like there is a ton of moving parts for the Hurricanes. The team is only gradually sorting who is available injury-wise. The bottom 6 forwards are some combination of unproven in terms of NHL experience and maybe more significantly questionable in terms of readiness with key players Jeff Skinner and Elias Lindholm more or less missing the key 2nd week of preseason games and practices. And none of the combination possibilities have seen ice time together either in 2012-13 or in the current preseason. On top of the personnel issues, I think it is incredibly important that the team get off to a decent (not great but not a big hole either) start. The start is important to build confidence after the abysmal ending to 2012-13 and also to avoid creating the pressure of needing to make up points only a month into the season especially with the more difficult division and schedule.
My first measuring stick is the 7-game mark. The Canes see a very tough stretch of 7 games starting the season against some very good teams against some of the elite offensive talent in the league. Game 1 sees Zetterberg and Datsyuk from Detroit. Game 2 sees Giroux, Voracek, Lecavalier and the young guns from Philadelphia. Game 3 is Crosby, Malkin and company from Pittsburgh. Game 4 is Ovechkin and company who put up 4 in a loss versus the Blackhawks last night. Game 5 is Los Angeles. Game 6 is Phoenix. And the gauntlet ends against Hossa, Kane, Toews and Stanley Cup champion Chicago.
Facing as big of a challenge defensively as the team will see all season, I think it is important for the 2013-14 Hurricanes to find its bearings defensively early. Trying to carve out enough points riding the pressurized rollercoaster either winning or losing 4-1 or 5-2 most nights depending on whether you hit or miss is a hard path to a playoff spot for a borderline team. The ups and downs can be mentally and emotionally taxing over the long season. And more importantly the points structure of the NHL system significantly benefits teams that can play a bunch of close games. This capitalizes on the system where late (overtime) losses result in a free point and where ties have a 50/50 chance of winning an extra free point in the skills competition lottery at the end. For a team likely to be battling for a playoff spot (if it does well) in early April, those extra points are the difference. The Canes strength last season was its ability to score. At least at the top end of the roster, I think that will carry forward to 2013-14. But I think it is crucial for the team to settle into a more consistent style where the goalies at least have a chance to be a difference-maker each night and the team is not playing so many games where they are minus 1 or even 2 in terms of giving away unearned goals with horrible breakdowns and mistakes.
With top-tier offensive talent on the schedule and 5 of these 7 games at home where Kirk Muller has the ability to dictate matchups a bit, I think the early schedule presents the perfect challenge to establish the Canes “first team defense.” The “first team defense” is the set of 6 (including the goalie) who will be on the ice for as many of the difficult shifts against the run of elite players coming through Raleigh to start the season. It is comprised of the top defensive pairing of Andrej Sekera/Justin Faulk, the top checking line of Nathan Gerbe/Jordan Staal/Patrick Dwyer and Cam Ward in net. The set of 5 skaters includes 2 players completely new to the team and therefore combinations that have not seen a regular season NHL game together yet. After 4 consecutive playoff misses and an abysmal finish to the 2012-13 season, quickly getting settled into the new season, building confidence and not creating an early deficit in standings points is very important. I think the defensive set could have the greatest say into how this season starts. With the 3rd-line that is often a checking line on deep teams being very much a work in process as much of this work as feasibly possible will fall to Jordan Staal’s line. It would be great to have Ruutu as part of this mix, but amidst the injury struggles, the “first team defense” has actually had a pretty normal training camp. Sekera and Faulk have been paired from the outset and healthy, have seen significant ice time together and seem to be rounding into form. The current Jordan Staal line was the best line on the ice in the final 2 preseason games and all 3 players have been a regular part of training camp after Gerbe missed the first few days due to personal reasons. Cam Ward has logged 4 preseason games and looked ready for real hockey in each of the last 2. There is good reason to believe that this group is ready for the regular season. If this proves to be the case and we get an early surge whereby this group of 6 lays down a stronger defensive foundation for 2013-14 and the results through 7 games follow, then I think this team is on its way to battling for a playoff spot. If instead, it looks like the new combinations need time to develop chemistry and the team starts slow, things could be challenging early. Things could go into triage mode too early. Muller will be pressured to more quickly figure out what to do with the bottom 6 versus just leaning heavily on the top 6 to buy time. Rutherford will be forced to consider personnel moves under duress and desperation which can be treacherous. And it could reawaken the bad mojo from the spring of 2013.
My broader part 1 of the season preview had Ward 1st, the blue line 2nd and JStaal’s line 3rd in terms of priorities. This blog obviously follows the same theme of tightening up a bit defensively and increasing the prospects of winning points in the standings not just on nights where things click on all cylinders.
Especially for the first stretch of 7 games, if I had to pick 2 players on the spot, I would go with Cam Ward #1 and Jordan Staal #2. If Ward plays well, it builds confidence across the entire team. And long-term the team needs to significantly reduce the volume of breakdowns, but if Ward can cover up a few hear there early I think it will create confidence that actually helps players just play their games and improve in this regard. On a top-heavy team, there is no way that the Canes can compete with some of the teams in its new division if Jordan Staal is not 1 of the best players on the ice each night. Per my previous blog, he needs to lead his line to breakeven battles playing against some of the NHL’s best most nights.
I am not oblivious to the number of experts putting the Canes #7 or #8 in the team’s division, and I do not think these projections are completely misinformed coming out of last season. But I do think this team has a chance to compete for a playoff spot if it can quickly sort out the moving parts and establish a better defensive foundation that keeps it in games even when things do not go perfectly.
In part 3 of my season preview, I will take a look at challenges, roles and goals for individual players.
What say you Canes fans? Is at least the top 6 ready to go to start the season on the right foot? Am I right that early success and the resulting confidence runs through Cam Ward and Jordan Staal’s line?
2 days until real hockey!
Go Canes!
Matt on Google+ 
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • 
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