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10 targets for a top 4 defenseman

June 20, 2013, 9:27 AM ET [112 Comments]
Matt Karash
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
The Carolina Hurricanes desperately need a top 4 defenseman and GM Jim Rutherford has called that the top priority this summer. With a shallow UFA pool, it might take some creativity. There are 4 paths to landing a top 4 dman this summer:
1) Signing an unrestricted free agent.
2) Collecting this as part of the king’s ransom for moving down from the #5 draft pick.
3) Trading a similar quality forward to another team looking to improve in a different area.
4) Trading a collection of futures to a rebuilding team.
5) Working the unique landscape of the salary cap landscape and compliance buyouts.

Here are my 10 deals in order of preference. Many require a willing partner, so it is not clear how many of these deals could be made as noted or with minor tinkering:

1) Trade Jeff Skinner for Keith Yandle (Pho).
Yandle leans a little bit offense and skating over pure shutdown defense, but is a good enough 2-way player to be a true top 4. As a left shot with wheels, might he make a long-term partner for Faulk? The timing could be right. Phoenix is very deep defensively both in terms of current NHL players but equally importantly with youth in their system such that they could afford to let Yandle go. Skinner’s marketability to put butts in seats could also be appealing for the struggling franchise. If Pho needs a puck-moving replacement back, McBain gets pulled into the deal possibly with Pho then also needing to add something else. I am not privy to Pho’s plans, but this would be my first phone call if I was Rutherford.

2) Win the UFA bidding war for Rob Scuderi (LA).
Scuderi is a grizzled playoff proven veteran but also on the back half of his 30s. With Voynov re-signed this week at a $4M cap hit, the math is getting harder and harder for LA to keep him. At age 36, I think fair value would be a small step down from his $3.6M salary, but with the scarcity of options my guess is that he costs every bit of the same $3.6M and maybe even for 3-4 years. He brings little offensively, but after spending a decent amount of time chasing Drew Doughty around could he be the best possible partner for a similarly roaming but talented Joni Pitkanen?

3) Trade the #5 pick, Jamie McBain and something else for Christian Ehrhoff (Buf) and either the #8 or #16 pick.
Ehrhoff was flat out good last year on a team that was not. Whenever Buffalo comes up, people want to talk about Tyler Myers. I don’t. At $5.5M/year, he is signed for about $1.5M too much (reference Voynov and Josi coming off GOOD seasons and re-signing for $4M/year) and what’s worse is after a big setback in 2013, he went from being a top 4 to a “projected top 4” again. If the Canes could offer enough to pry the #8 pick loose in this deal, they might get the slightly lesser version of what they want (3rd line center of Lindholm or Monahan instead of Barkov) anyway and they fill their blue line hole to boot. My hunch is that Buffalo wants more in return than just a collection of parts and a couple notches higher in the draft, but just maybe they are in love with someone that they can only get at #5.

4) Trade the #5 pick plus Jamie McBain for the #7 pick and Ladislav Smid (Edm).
Similar to the Buffalo trade above, the Canes look to have their cake and eat it too. They fill the hole on defense and draft-wise and still sit at the border of possibly getting an NHL-ready 3rd line center in this year’s draft. Like the deal above, it is only possible if Edmonton really really wants someone who requires the #5 pick.

5) Trade a small collection of futures for Andrei Markov (Mon).
With Subban’s rise and a decent mix of veteran and young defenseman to boot, Markov might be expendable especially when you consider that he only has 1 year left on his contract and that his money will likely be needed to re-sign key younger defensemen Subban and Emelin for sizable raises. He has been through the rumor mill a dozen times, is almost certainly gone next summer anyway and is at a trade value high point coming off his first healthy season in awhile. He might only be a short-term option, but he could be a good one. With the Canes so thin on organization depth right now, I don’t know how the Canes put together a package but maybe if Mon sees the writing on the wall for next summer a collection of middle picks and prospects (NOT Skinner or the #5 pick) is enough.

6) Trade Jeff Skinner for Erik Johnson (Clr).
If Colorado takes Seth Jones #1 overall, would they then consider trading Johnson? The Avs are not overly deep defensively and are not desperate for offense so nothing is imminent, but who knows. Johnson has not lived up to Norris Trophy type of expectations, but he has found his way to be a decent all-around serviceable top 4 defenseman who is just entering his prime. I have no idea what else gets pulled into a deal like this, but Skinner for Johnson is the foundation.

7) Trade nothing (literally) for Andrej Meszaros (Phi).
Even after Philadelphia buys out Danny Briere and probably Ilya Bryzgalov, they will still be right up against the cap with a few slots left to be filled. The Flyers added Streit, so they are 1 deeper on defense. Meszaros was a medical train wreck in 2013 having back surgery last summer, then tearing his Achilles to miss the start of the season and then injuring a shoulder, and returning only to reinjure it requiring off-season surgery. There is obviously some risk here, but he is only 27 and has logged 80+ games in 6 of his 9 season, so I am not sure it fair to tag him with the “injury prone” label. He is only signed through 2013-14, so he could be an inexpensive way to kick the can down the road. I figure the Canes explore better options through mid-July. If there just is not another deal to be done, timing could be perfect for Philadelphia needing to squeeze under the salary cap in which case it’s a 6th round pick for Meszaros.

8) Sign Anton Volchenkov (NJ) as a UFA IF New Jersey buys him out.
Volchenkov is a similar story to Meszaros. Very recently, he was considered a solid top 4. Only last summer he was a serviceable part of a Devils defense that made the finals. Like Meszaros he had injury issues (although not to the same magnitude) in 2013. The biggest difference is that in current form, he comes with much more risk with 4 more years to go on his contract. He becomes much less risky and probably a little cheaper if he gets bought out and hits the open market. He is a pure stay-home top 4. The top-end version of Volchenkov is a tremendous shot blocker and penalty killer. Right now, his cost trade-wise might be reasonable but the bigger issue is whether the Canes would want the risk of a 4-year commitment.

9) Trade Jamie McBain plus middle-tier futures for Dennis Wideman (Cal).
Cal has officially entered full rebuilding mode, so it seems that any veterans of value could be had for the right price. Wideman is a right shot puck-moving defenseman. I question whether he is good enough at the pure defense that the Canes really need, but at least theoretically his skill set complements Tim Gleason’s more stay-home style. He also has a pretty big $5.25M cap hit over the next 4 years which locks you in before you test drive it and could even get in the way of a Marc Staal arrival down the road.

10) Trade Jamie McBain plus middle-tier futures for Mark Giordano (Cal).
Giordano is nothing exciting, but has developed into a serviceable top 4 defenseman and carries a slightly lower cap hit of about $4M. He is more defense-first than Wideman and might therefore be a better/safer bet. Neither of these guys makes the top of my want list, but with Cal possibly being willing sellers, maybe they can be had without creating a roster hole somewhere else if Rutherford can navigate the tricky salary cap brain teaser.

Options that don’t thrill me:
--Marc Staal (NYR). I suggested a Skinner for Staal trade about a month ago. At the time, Staal seemed likely to return during the playoffs. He did not. I would not risk it until he proves he can play and return to previous form. Even still, I like the idea of being patient and getting him as a UFA in 2 years.
--Andrew Ference (Bos). I love him as a player, but my concern is that especially at 36, he is partially the beneficiary of a great defensive team and would look much different in a weaker Canes system.
--Andre Benoit (Ott). See Ference. He looks like an up-and-coming young defenseman and will get paid accordingly. But in an Ottawa system where they went 3 goalies deep and plug-and-played a bunch of defensemen, was he really that good? Let someone else take the risk.
--Toni Lydman (Ana). The 28-30 year old version of Toni Lydman would be a good fit. He feels more like a great veteran #5/#6 dman at this point than a 22 minutes/night top 4.
--Jordan Leopold (StL). See Lydman. Decent defenseman, but maybe more of a solid #5.
--Marek Zidlicky (NJ). I fear that he leans a little too much offense and might also have benefitted in terms of showing defensive liability from playing in a Devils system that leaned defense first. He is also likely to be very expensive.
--Ron Hainsey (Wpg). Though he may be a higher-end version of it, he looks too much like the small army of right shot, puck-moving, offense-first defenseman that we already tried in Corvo, McBain and to a lesser degree Murphy. The top priority is to get better defensively, and I think there are better options if you stay focused on that goal.
--Ryan Whitney (Edm). Ditto Zidlicky and Hainsey on the offense-first/defense-questionable thing plus being a couple years removed from being a combination of reasonably healthy and good, he is a huge question mark suited only for flyers not must-work top 4 needs.
--Tyler Myers (Buf). After regressing this year, he is suddenly a fully-priced top 4 dman who now needs to prove that he is actually a top 4. At $5.5M/year long-term, he also looks overpriced by about $1.5M with Voynov and Josi both signing long-term for only $4M/year coming off good seasons.

What say you Canes fans? Will the Canes get lucky and see Edmonton or Buffalo overbid for the #5 pick? Will Scuderi even hit the open market or will LA find the cap space? Is a blockbuster for someone like Yandle, Johnson or maybe a Coburn on the horizon? Or will the Canes settle for a shorter term (AMarkov) or slightly riskier but also cheaper option (Volchenkov, Meszaros, etc.)?

The Canes ability to improve defensively and compete for a playoff spot probably hangs on this move more than any other.

For a quick heads up when I post a Canes blog or to be part of the occasional Twitter banter follow me at CarolinaMatt63.

Go Canes!
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