That 4th Overall pick is growing in value every day that we get closer to the NHL Draft. Edmonton is obviously in a position where it makes sense to move the pick for the right return, but they could take the player as well. Honestly it’s no worse than 50/50 that they keep it and draft 4th overall.
The Edmonton Oilers as an NHL team absolutely need right-handed defensemen. There’s no way around it. In fact, they likely need two of them who are legitimate top 4 players. And, if we’re being honest, they need to be top 3 defenders if this team is going to see the kind of change needed to compete for a playoff position.
The Edmonton Oilers as a complete organization are also in need of RHDs throughout all levels of their franchise (Drafted CHL/NCAA and minor pro). Edmonton has left-handed defenders in the system as far as the eye can see. On the right it’s a line of three men and one of them is a pending UFA. That said, they also lack high end offensive forward talent outside of the NHL level as well. That’s the thing about drafting so damned high every year, those talented kids don’t often spend time in the AHL.
The Farm is a mess right now. There isn’t anyone in the system coming up who looks like a top 6 forward. The best bet they had was Caggiula, who just signed as a free agent. The prospect pool is barren when it comes to top end talent. There isn’t anyone particularly exciting coming up through the ranks (though I’d be happy with a few surprises).
For that reason, Edmonton is in a position where using the 4th pick makes sense to take the Best Available Player, and in this case that’s a forward. It makes very little sense to take any of the higher rated defenders because they are all lefties and because it would be a stretch based on the current consensus of the publicly available scouting information.
When we see mock Drafts from the Flames’ online staff that has
the Oilers taking Olli Juolevi 4th, conveniently leaving Matthew Tkachuk there at 6 for the Flames, it should seem disingenuous (or at least misinformed). That’s because Juolevi doesn’t solve a single problem Edmonton has. He’s yet another lefty who would be slotted in the organizational depth chart behind Klefbom, Sekera, Nurse, Davidson, Reinhart, and a wash of others in the system.
The fact of the matter is that the player with the most momentum (or recency bias) going into the Draft is one Matthew Tkachuk. He’s big, he has a famous name, he scored the memorial cup winning goal, and he scored 107 points in 57 games with the London Knights this year. The way people are talking right now, the Blue Jackets might opt to take Tkachuk at 3 instead of Puljujarvi. If the Oilers don’t want either of those two then Pierre-Luc Dubois of the Screaming Eagles is making the rounds as a draft darling as well.
In any event, the Oilers pick at 4 will net some team a player who is valued quite high. Even as many people question the number of secondary assists Tkachuk picked up on the high powered Marner line, the fact is that he’s someone teams covet. Edmonton is going to need value to trade that pick. With reference to the last time the 4th was moved, GM Peter Chiarelli said that (and I’m paraphrasing a bit) “With all due respect, I’m not trading the pick for Ruslan Fedotenko.”
Edmonton needs to get a quality RHD for that pick if they decide to move it. Maybe that’s Barrie. Maybe that’s still Hamonic. I don’t know. All I can say for certain is that if the pick is moved and a right-shot defender ISN’T part of the return then Edmonton has made a terrible mistake.
The biggest benefit to keeping the pick: That player will not need to be protected in the coming expansion draft. It’s an asset that doesn’t have to come at the expense of any other should Vegas actually get (and we think the NHL will make this mistake) their franchise. 7 forwards, 3 defenders, and a goalie start to add up fast when NMCs have to be protected. Should Edmonton add 2 defenders this summer that they desperately need, they stand to leave one of them or Klefbom unprotected in expansion.
Edmonton is going to be the wild card of this Draft. Their pick is for sale, except that it might not be, and the player projected to go there is a power forward with a famous name (otherwise known as Scout-Nip). The rumours are just ramping up now and we still have a couple weeks to go.
Would you draft the player or trade the pick? What kind of value do you think the 4th will have on Draft day?
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