|
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: Not Dead Yet |
|
|
|
|
|
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a tough season. He had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad season. Or, at least, that’s the way it’s going to be remembered. In reality, despite his obvious struggles, he wasn’t far off his previously established pace even though he lost significant time to injury and illness.
By the end of this season Oiler fans and analysts alike all came to the same conclusion: Change is coming. There’s no way a team can move forward built as the Oilers are. They don’t have enough actual top 4 defenders to ice a competitive team. Change has to happen, not because this core is rotten but because this core is incomplete. There are forwards aplenty without anyone to pass them the puck. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been identified by many as the piece that should be moved to pick up that defender they need.
But just a year ago Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ play had identified him as the 1C of the future for the Oilers and a near untouchable piece of this puzzle. He was the most consistent Oiler from beginning to end of season and a 5v5 producer. What a difference a year makes. An improbable lottery win, an unsustainable run by newcomer Leon Draisaitl, and a horribly broken hand conspired to make Ryan Nugent-Hopkins appear more replaceable than ever. As such, the parents who depend on Nuge’s babysitting service are waiting on pins and needles for the Draft to find out if their go-to guy is going to be shipped out of town.
2015-2016 wasn’t overly kind to RNH. He was struggling visibly early into the season. There was something not quite right from beginning to end of the season. Things got worse after a bout with the Flu that left him looking like he lost a quarter-step. Then the season came right off the tracks when he blocked a shot with his hand, breaking his knuckle clean off, requiring reconstructive surgery to put it back together. There was concern that the injury in January could have forced him to miss the entire season. As luck would have it, he would come back with 9 games left on the schedule.
In total, RNH tallied 12-22-34 in 55 games, or a 51 point pace over 82 games. He picked up 4 points in that final 9 games which did hurt the pace he had been on, but he was still tracking to produce less than the 56 points he had in the last 2 seasons. Nevertheless, even in a down year, he was on pace to be in the top 40 in points for NHL centers.
This season saw the arrival of 2 high-end young centermen on the Oilers. This is, in reality, the biggest change to Edmonton’s situation. Connor McDavid’s addition to the club means everybody else is trying out for the 2C role. Even though RNH averaged more TOI/G this season than McDavid, that’s not likely to continue long. The kid is the real deal. McDavid isn’t just the best player on the Oilers, he’s already one of the best players in the NHL. Being 2C behind McDavid is no more shame than being 2C behind Crosby.
Leon Draisaitl took the bull by the horns in his first full NHL season after a regretful 37 game rookie campaign. The wide-shouldered German took flight with Taylor Hall to start his season (which had been delayed by an AHL start). At one point it looked like the two of them were an unstoppable force together. Though October to December Draisaitl played 29 games and scored 31 points. However, he definitely cooled off as the year progressed. In the back half of the season he played 43 games and scored just 20 points in that time, largely as Edmonton’s go-to pivot because RNH and McDavid were hurt.
So we come back to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the Oilers, and the issue of depth at center. For the first time since before Doug Weight was Captain of this team and I was in Jr High, the club has three good young centers. Even with that little bit of depth the hockey gods showed us all how much that really was when they struck both RNH and McDavid with massive injury in the same season. It was just enough to keep Letestu out of the top 6 most nights, but just barely.
As much as Edmonton “needs to give something to get something” if it’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins that they give then they create a huge hole in the lineup. For some bizarre reason, a lot of analysts have the Nuge 3rd on Edmonton’s depth chart down the middle, when he’s almost certainly 2nd behind only McDavid. The single season by Draisaitl, including his severe drop-off, is not enough to dethrone the years of evidence that backs up 93’s production and reliability on one of the top lines.
Center depth does so much for the clubs that have it. It’s not just a safety net for injury. It allows for different opportunities within the game for the players involved. Here’s a quote from Ken Hitchcock on Joe Thornton. Look at the way Hitch describes the way having multiple centers on the same line has made Jumbo Joe a more dangerous player than ever.
When Draisaitl started out of the gate as hot as he did, it wasn’t as a center. He was playing the wing with Hall and RNH as his center. It’s a combination I would like to see start the next season.
The trio played just 93:22 at 5v5 all season, but when they were together they clipped along at 4.50 Goals For per 60 minutes and 1.93 Goals Against per 60 minutes. That’s unlikely to last a whole season, but they have positive possession, speed, and skill to spare. It’s not likely that Draisaitl’s arrival spells the end of RNH so much as it simply gives him a better RW than he would have otherwise. McLellan has spoken about RNH being a Center while he saw Draisaitl as a Forward in the general sense. It’s logical to assume this configuration is what he had in mind.
So while many are including the soft-spoken center in countless off-season trade scenarios, I can’t help but think it ought to be a last-resort. There are other options to trade. The 4th Overall pick is highly valuable. Jordan Eberle is highly valuable. There were other rumoured trades (Yak + Pouliot) that were apparently going to address the defense. The Oilers aren’t in a position where they HAVE to trade Nugent-Hopkins, even in the position in they’re in.
Importantly, the rumours of the kid’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. His established level of play is high and the Oilers are in a position to add pieces that will help their centermen move the puck out of their own zone more now than ever. Finding those puck-moving defenders while keeping their 2nd best pivot needs to be a priority for this club.
Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»