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R2 G3 Oilers vs Ducks: Never Tell Me The Odds |
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Edmonton takes a 2-0 lead in this series against the Anaheim Ducks back to Rogers place, having stolen away home-ice advantage. Game one was certainly a much more even game than the last one. Edmonton may have opened the scoring on the first shot, but the Ducks were trying to beat the door down all night. If not for Cam Talbot and the posts this would be a very different story.
What were the odds? What chances did the Oilers have at the beginning of the year and how has that changed? That’s not my area of specialty. That’s a Vegas thing. I think most people were pretty nervous about the unproven blueline to start the year, but before the end of October I know my expectations changed and I had the Oilers making the playoffs. Make the playoffs, it’s all gravy after that. But then the Oil not just play at a playoff pace but come within a couple wins of taking the regular season Pacific Division crown. At that point I thought the second round was available.
But what about beyond the middle frame? What are the odds of that? Vegas had the Oilers to win the Cup at 30:1 to start the year. When the playoffs started that was 12:1 and money got harder to win from there. Yesterday the odds were 3:1 and Edmonton was the favorite to win the Cup! Today I think the Penguins have the best odds again but by the slimmest of margins.
Beyond Vegas there are a few statistical models out there that try to come up with odds for each playoff club. Stephen Burtch of Sportsnet and Twitter has his own that relies heavily on Expected Goals For. I won’t begin to tell you that I understand everything about it, because I do not. All I can say for certain is that the Oilers have been listed very high on the model. Right now, they own the best odds by a long shot.
It’s hard, if not impossible, to look down the road for a second. The Oiler players can’t afford to do that against the Ducks, but we can take just a second for ourselves. The path to the Finals as a team in the West is probably a little more clearly defined than the East. It’s probably true that the best two teams in the East and the West are playing each other in round two, but Pittsburgh and Washington achieved more in the regular season and are cannibalizing each other. I think Nashville will win their series but St Louis is finding ways to win too. No matter who takes that one, though, the winner of Anaheim/Edmonton will have home ice in the next round. And the Oilers have jumped out ahead.
Taking eyes away from the seemingly impossible future that Vegas and other odds-makers envision, Edmonton has only completed half the job against the Anaheim. In the playoff speak, they haven’t actually accomplished anything yet. The Ducks threw everything at Talbot and controlled the play in game two. The Oilers need to be better all around. Shots were 40-23 and possession was exactly as expected with numbers like that.
The team knows they stunk in front of Talbot. McDavid pulled no punches saying they didn’t really deserve the win if not for the magical work of their netminder. The coach wasn’t deluding himself either during the post-game press conference. The last time the Oilers played a real stinker of a game, Talbot wasn’t able to save them and the end result was a 7-0 drubbing. We see if the lesson can be learned by this group without total failure motivating them. They responded after that huge loss to the Sharks with a great performance. Let’s see how they look in front of the home fans tonight.
LINEUP
Drake Caggiula was racing towards the net with the puck, having blown by the defender wide. He was tripped by Gibson and careened into the boards at full speed. The collision was violent and he didn’t play another shift in the game. Per McLellan after the game, Caggiula was “Fine.” We’ll see.
Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Lucic RNH Eberle
Caggiula Letestu Kassian
Pouliot Desharnais Slepyshev
Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Russell
Nurse Benning
Talbot
Brossoit
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Big Rig. As has been noted multiple times, the Ducks are paying a quarter of Patrick Maroon’s salary for him to play against them in the playoffs. Maroon had played with skilled players on the Ducks before, but he didn’t breakout offensively until he became an Oiler. He’s been SO successful that even Oiler fans are cautious about maintaining those expectation. He didn’t look very good in the series against the Sharks, but he’s looking more comfortable against the Ducks and a goal will help that feeling along. One of the things Maroon needs to keep doing is staying calm in the face of the increasing aggression of the Ducks. Hampus Lindholm had him in a literal – LITERAL – MMA Headlock in front of the referees. It wasn’t for a passing moment and dropped. Lindholm took him down to the ice with it and the referees looked on critiquing how deep he could get the lock, I guess. Had Maroon stood up and extracted a few of Lindholm’s teeth (like he deserved) there would have been plenty of penalties for Maroon. It can’t be easy knowing the rule book won’t be applied to you the same way as other people, but the Oilers need Maroon to be the productive winger for McDavid he has been all year.
2) Where Are You, Benoit? Benoit Pouliot’s legs are still there. If the numbers are obscured for long enough, his speed and skating style often catches even broadcasters off guard. I can’t even begin to count how many times he’s been called “Mc-uh-Pouliot” over the last two years. Against the Ducks his legs have put him in some interesting positions to score, even shorthanded chances are coming his way. But while his legs seem just fine, his hands continue to make this campaign a total disaster for him. Through the first two seasons as an Oiler, Pouliot delivered on the promise that he could produce offensively and provide solid possession metrics. On per 60 and per game rates his offense was very good, but he missed large tracks of time. In year three it has all come off the rails. I’ve hoped that the post-season would give him an opportunity to find his scoring touch, but he has been just as snakebitten. The good news is that with those legs he’s been drawing penalties and that’s pure gravy from the 4th line. But if he can finally start to provide that offense again it would be a massive boost to the depth needed to make deep pushes into the playoffs.
3) Managing Pucks. The Oilers had trouble in two key areas of the ice in game two. In the offensive zone they spent almost no time deep creating second and third opportunities. It was one and done and back to defense. Edmonton has Maroon, Draisaitl, and Lucic so that they can play games along the boards. If you’ve spent any time watching McDavid you know he has that star player ability to go into scrums and skate away with the puck. In the defensive zone the key area was at the point along the wall. Anaheim closed those spots off and the Oilers failed on many attempts to get the puck out of their zone. The Ducks owned the Oiler scramble breakout and turned the game into a Turkey shoot they were lucky to survive. That backhand chip-out high in the defensive zone isn’t there. They need to adjust. That puts a lot of pressure on their defense to make better breakout passes. Along the wall and pray for a puck battle cannot be the first choice.
Puck drops tonight at 5PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet. Game On!
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