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R2 G1 Oilers at Ducks: Whose Matchup Is Better? |
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Round two of the playoffs opens up tonight with number 1 and number 2 in the Pacific Division facing off against each other. The cream has certainly risen to the top in this grouping and now a seemingly inevitable clash is about to unfold. The Ducks have had more time to rest as they cut down the Flames in 4 straight games. The Oil took a small respite themselves, and needed all the time they could get to clear the room of an illness.
The Oilers were so addled by “flu” that Klefbom couldn’t even finish the final game. He must have been pretty ill for the medical staff to intervene after he already played two periods of hockey in an elimination game. Happily, they could afford to let him sit on the bench as the rest of his club pulled together. There is rampant speculation that Draisaitl and others were also afflicted with illness early in the series against the Sharks.
Against the Sharks the name of the game was “Matchups”. It was about Vlassic against McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins against Pavelski. The Sharks did a solid job limiting McDavid to just 4 points in 6 games but RNH and company cut down the top Sharks line. Edmonton’s secondary scoring pushed the club forward until the likes of Draisaitl and Maroon started to be more effective.
Against the Ducks the obvious matchup is Kesler on McDavid. The Duck center did a solid job for the majority of the season until Edmonton’s captain found a way to break through near the end of the season. Ultimately Connor McDavid played against Kesler more than any other forward in the NHL last season, 50:01 and Andrew Cogliano was ranked number 2 at 45:08. When the Oilers played Anaheim, it was almost step for step McDavid and Kesler.
Against Kesler for almost an hour of play, McDavid managed a 57.0% CF, 3.599 Goals For per 60 minutes, and 1.200 Goals Against per 60 minutes. Statistically speaking, McDavid performed incredibly well against Kesler. However, like we saw against Couture and the Sharks, the playoffs are another level of coverage for McDavid. If the referees continue to allow nightly muggings as they did with the Sharks then Kesler will take full advantage and space will be hard to come by for 97.
On the flip side of things, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins played against Getzlaf for 37:46 last season, the second highest amount of against you time versus NHL forwards. Nuge had a favorable shot attempt ratio (50.8% CF), but the Oilers didn’t score at all with him on the ice and allowed 3.177 Goals Against per 60 minutes. So Getzlaf and the Ducks probably feel pretty good about this matchup.
The thing with any of these numbers is that even Kesler vs McDavid is still less than an hour of time. It’s really not enough to make any grand predictions. They are simply snapshots of the past season that we use to set the scene for the playoffs. It looks like McDavid performed well vs Kesler. It looks like Getzlaf ought to be happy lining up against RNH. Now we find out for sure. There’s no more back-to-backs down through southern California or up through Alberta. It’s not just one game against one team and then on to the next group. It’s a best of seven and the details will matter.
LINEUP
Maroon was practicing back on the McDavid line the past couple days. Let’s assume they are indeed reunited. All else stays as expected.
Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Lucic RNH Eberle
Caggiula Letestu Kassian
Pouliot Desharnais Slepyshev
Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Russell
Nurse Benning
Talbot
Brossoit
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) The Nuge is Huge. Without recording a single point (although leading the team in shots) against the Sharks, Nuge was one of the most impactful Oilers in the series. For the team to succeed he will need to get even better. Joe Pavelski is a fantastic player, but I rate Getzlaf higher and Corey Perry even in a down year is probably still more dangerous than Joe Thornton who was playing on two torn knee ligaments. The stakes and the opposition are all ramped up in round two. From the trade deadline to the end of the regular season Ryan Getzlaf picked up 27 points in 18 games. That’s tied for the 2nd highest total in the NHL over that span. Against the Flames he picked up 5 points (3-2-5) in just 4 games, averaging 22 minutes a night. This is probably the most dangerous player not Captaining the Oilers in the Western Conference. He’s big, he’s good, and he’s experienced. He’s only 31 years old, regardless of what his hairline tells you. This isn’t a guy at the twilight of his career even if the best years are probably behind him. How much can Nugent-Hopkins handle? That’s the big question. And for the love of all things Oiler, can he please score a goal?
2) Back to Blue. The Ducks have an injury problem on their blueline. Hampus Lindholm has an apparent wrist injury. He played in the 4 games against the Flames, but his effectiveness is in question. Sami Vatanen was limited to just a single game against the Ducks because of an “Upper Body Injury”. He’s apparently close to returning and might be there tonight. And Cam Fowler’s injured knee has kept him out of the playoffs completely up to this point. All three of the defensemen mentioned are part of the backbone for the Anaheim blueline. They are all expected to play tonight. Edmonton through the 1st round made a concerted effort to apply physical pressure to the Sharks. With a banged up Ducks blueline, the game plan will likely be the same. Players will play through sometimes very serious injury (Couture, Thornton) during the playoffs. How hurt are Fowler, Vatanen, and Lindholm today? How much punishment can they take from the forecheck? How quickly can they adjust to Edmonton’s speed? I was hoping the Ducks and Flames would go longer to really push this issue. Tonight it’s Edmonton’s problem to deal with.
3) Connor Elevates. As Ryan Getzlaf was tied for 2nd in points after the trade deadline, it was Connor McDavid who was 1st with 28 points in 18 games. His first playoff series was only OK by his standards, bordering on sub-par, which is still good considering he leads the Oilers in scoring and is 2nd in shots on net. He’s playing almost 21 and a half minutes a night and he has a buddy all night long. It took him quite a while to figure out how to play against Kesler in the regular season, but once he solved that puzzle he put up consecutive 3 point games against them. Edmonton needs McDavid to break loose. He was probably unlucky with some weird bounces and linemates who were deathly ill and unable to capitalize on chances McDavid created for them. Nevertheless, as he goes, so too do the Oilers. Expect Ryan Kesler to more physical with 97 than
Puck drops tonight at 8:30 PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet. Game On!
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