One of the biggest topics of discussion over the last week or so in Oil Country has been the fit that Brent Seabrook may or may not have with the Edmonton Oilers should he be moved. He is a big, talented, right shooting defenseman who has played on the top pair of a winning organization for years. Would he fit? Yeah. Pretty obviously he would.
Brent Seabrook would be an instant upgrade over Justin Schultz. There’s no question about it. But then again, almost any team’s best right handed defenseman would be an upgrade over Justin Schultz. It really isn’t a high bar to jump over.
This topic has come up because the 30 year old Seabrook is entering the final year of his contract and the Blackhawks are in a Cap crunch.
As per GeneralFanager the Hawks are already 718K over the Cap and that’s without re-signing Kruger. Even with Keith and Hjalmarsson locked up to sweetheart deals with beautiful Cap Hits, they need to shed salary and Seabrook will want to get paid next year.
Seabrook is a real leader in Chicago and you have to believe they will do everything in their power to make something work, but pro careers are short and the ability to maximize earnings comes along only so often. There is a pretty big expectation among traditional hockey media for Seabrook to cash in on his next deal to the tune of 7 years by 7 Million or something close to it.
Chicago just can’t afford that.
That brings us back to the Oilers. Edmonton can technically afford to pay Seabrook starting next year when 11.25 Million dollars of salary is set to come off the books, and that doesn’t include the team doing anything with Ference. Then again, they will have to earmark a fair amount of that money to a raise for Klefbom and the ELC bonuses of Nurse, Draisaitl, and McDavid.
Assuming that getting money to those players isn’t a problem because the Cap rises (it would have fallen this year if not for an artificial inflator) or some other solution presents itself, the real questions left are 1) How much would it cost in assets to acquire Seabrook. And 2) Is he worth signing to a 7x7M dollar deal or something close to it.
ACQUISITION COST
Based on the comments of random Blackhawks fans who have made their way into my comment sections or on my twitter feed, the perception is that it would take quite a bit to trade for Seabrook. One poster went so far as to (insanely) suggest the ask should be Klefbom, Nurse, and Draisaitl!
Let’s be absolutely clear though, the Oilers aren’t giving up Klefbom, Nurse, OR Draisaitl, let alone all three. That’s some pie in the sky thinking. The Oilers are trying to build a long term winner. You don’t do that by giving up three of your most promising young players for a 30 year old whose best years are almost certainly behind him.
Reality may eventually set in for Blackhawks fans, but frankly I would rather be there when Seabrook gets traded for what will invariably be less than his perceived value. And it should be all but guaranteed that he will be moved for a return that Blackhawk fans will hate. He isn’t Brandon Saad, an up and coming 22 year old with an impressive resume and years of club control. Whoever gets Seabrook will be doing so knowing that whatever years they buy on the next contract will be UFA years that come at a high price.
And, frankly, I don’t see Chiarelli paying more than what Calgary did for Dougie Hamilton. The Flames gave up a 1st and two 2nd Rounders for a 22 year old stud blueliner. Seabrook isn’t going to cost a team more than that or perhaps a pick and cheaper player. And the longer the Hawks wait the less the cost becomes.
If they opt to go for another Championship next year (who wouldn’t?) then they might only get a throwaway pick for Seabrook’s bargaining rights next June. The clock is ticking for Chicago to get maximum return. The Salary Cap is unavoidable and Chicago knows more than most that there will be casualties.
But am I perhaps being a little too bullish on Oiler prospects Nurse and Draisaitl? I don’t think so. Here’s an excerpt from Elliotte Friedman’s
final 30 thoughts of the season:
22. Another exec said his team asked Edmonton about Leon Draisaitl and was rebuffed. During development camp, the forward told reporters he didn’t have a problem with moving to the wing. Don’t be surprised if the Oilers take him up on that offer.
“He can protect the puck and make a pass from either wing,” one GM said. Tough to find strong forwards with skill, and Edmonton knows it.
Teams have already come asking about Draisaitl and they’ve been turned away. The big German just finished a campaign in the WHL where he was the WHL playoff MVP and the Memorial Cup MVP. The limited CHL stats that we have identified him as the 2nd most productive player on a per 60 rate in the CHL, behind only Connor McDavid.
In other words, Draisaitl is damn good and the Oilers need him moving forward. He is strong as a Center but versatile enough to play the wing. He is faster than he’s given credit for and can make elite level plays. He’s also a recent 3rd overall pick. He’s not getting dealt for Seabrook.
Nurse is also coming off a successful CHL campaign in which he starred for Canada at the World Juniors and Captained his team to great regular success. He is Edmonton’s best defensive prospect in the last 20 years and Edmonton is weakest on Defense. It makes no sense at all for them to move Nurse. None. He’s going nowhere.
Finally, Klefbom was Edmonton’s best defenseman by the end of last year and himself is only 22 (in 10 days). He logged almost 22 minutes a night for the Oilers, the most of any Rookie in the NHL. If Seabrook was a few years younger and had a few more years on his deal then you could see a potential trade. But, as it stands Klefbom is part of the foundation the Oilers are trying to build.
If the Hawks wanted to shed salary but get back a young player with upside the starting point for Edmonton is probably Justin Schultz. If Chicago wants picks then that’s fine too. But nobody in their right mind is going to pay more than they paid for Leddy, for Boychuk, or for Dougie Hamilton to get Brent Seabrook from a team in Cap trouble. He wouldn’t even be potentially available if the Hawks weren’t in a jam.
PAYING THE MAN
So is Seabrook worth the raise that many think he will get on the open market?
I don’t think so. He will be 31 when his next contract begins. If it’s a 7 year deal then he will be 38 by the time it’s finished. I don’t think the Oilers can commit that much money to one player who might not be the driver they are looking for.
Beyond the 7 years thing, I’m extremely leery of Seabrook because he’s played almost exclusively with one of the best defenseman in the NHL for the majority of his career. I worry about how much of his success belongs to him and how much it belongs to Duncan Keith. I think those are fair concerns to have for Seabrook.
As per stats.hockeyanalysis.com Seabrook has played 6490 5v5 minutes over the last 5 years and 4242 of that has been with Keith. His next most common D partner (987) has been Hjalmarsson who is also an incredible defenseman in his own right. When he’s with Keith they get a fair amount of Offensive Zone starts compared to Defensive Zone starts. When he’s with Hjalmarsson the duo starts more of the time in the DZ. So depending on which partner he’s with he plays different roles. This should help account for the disparity of Seabrook’s possession numbers with and without Duncan Keith. With Keith he has a 54.8% over the last 5 years. Without Keith that number drops to 51.8%. On the other hand, Duncan Keith without Seabrook barely dips at 54.3%.
Offensively, Seabrook looks like a 30-40 point defender. His production on a per 60 minutes basis over the last 5 seasons places his 28th among defenders with at least 3000 minutes played with an average of 0.88 points per 60. However, last season he dipped down to 83rd place with 0.65 P/60 which had him directly between the offensive contributions of Marc Staal and Robyn Regehr. In 2013-2014 he was significantly more productive at Even Strength posting a 1.10 P/60 but he was again down in 2012-2013 producing just 0.70 P/60. So we can see that he has been very up and down over the last several years of his career. Something to worry about? Nothing at all? I don’t really know.
When I look at Seabrook’s resume there is one thing that stands out very positively. He’s durable. Like, crazy durable. He’s missed 10 regular season games over the last 9 seasons. For a physical guy who logs a ton of minutes and leads his defense in hitting on a regular basis that’s impressive. It does seem like whomever Seabrook plays for is going to get 78+ games a season out of him. That’s a good thing because he’s played 875 games in a 10 year career. He has a lot of miles on the odometer for a man his age.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I like Brent Seabrook as a player. He’s practically invincible, he’s a leader, he can log a lot of minutes. What I’m not sure about moving forward is how much of a driver he will be in his 30’s. I am extremely cautious about how much of his team’s success would come with him to a new club. He played a very large proportion of his minutes with Keith, Toews, Hossa and Kane. I would rate those players ahead of Seabrook every day. What I would say without hesitation is that Seabrook would be an upgrade over Justin Schultz on the right side of the ice.
What I’m most worried about with a player like Seabrook has nothing to do with the off-the-ice qualities he possesses. He’s a leader. Great. He’s a consummate professional. Great. My concern is that he will want to get paid for what he’s accomplished already and not for what he will accomplish. With a team like the Oilers who will need money for Draisaitl, McDavid, Klefbom, and Nurse moving forward (and who are already paying Hall, Eberle, and Nugent-Hopkins) I’m not sure they can afford to pay a premium to someone who will be in his mid-30s when the young Oilers are in their primes.
If Seabrook wanted less money on a shorter term I think the team could stomach it. I think they could find ways to make it work. 7x7 (as has been bandied about) is asking for trouble when contracts come up. The Cap does not keep rising exponentially. There isn’t another 4-5M every year. The only reason it didn’t fall this year is because the Players and Owners agreed to use the Escalator.
If the Oilers have money that is burning a hole in their pocket they need to be reminded that a lot of it is already spent on McDavid and company. Whatever extra they do have has to be allocated wisely. Brent Seabrook is a hell of a player and better than any RHD the Oilers have. That doesn’t mean he’s the answer for the Oilers at ages 31-38, certainly not at any cost.
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