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Oilers Delight Pacific, Re-Sign Russell

June 23, 2017, 1:52 PM ET [432 Comments]
Matt Henderson
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Well it happened. The Oilers, to the delight of their opponents in the Pacific, have extended Kris Russell to the tune of $4 million over 4 years with a modified no trade clause. The deal is frontloaded, which is a small victory for Edmonton since the contract will be more acceptable to teams looking for dead cap space in years 3 and 4. This is offset, though, by the fact that he has a modified no trade in the final 2 years. Chiarelli has successfully prevented his blueline from improving except via internal growth from Klefbom, Benning, and Nurse.

This day will be looked upon as a victory, no doubt, by the same people who thought David Clarkson was the next Wendel and announced their pleasure over social media and in print. For anyone willing to accept the possibility that facts and results matter, anyone willing to look at evidence and use it to shape their opinion, this is a nightmare.

Kris Russell was Nikita Nikitin, Andrew Ference, and Dan Girardi but with Cam Talbot standing on his head behind him last year. The effect he had on the Oilers was an incredible net negative in offense and possession with only a positive goals for percentage to bolster his value. That goals for percentage, upon even the scantest amount of scrutiny, looks like a house of cards built upon a career high .938 on-ice save percentage that seems unlikely to get repeated.

I’m not mad. I have tried every way conceivable to highlight the problems with extending Russell. There are many.

1) He’s quite terrible at his job
2) The Oilers need to improve in order to challenge for a Cup
3) He is already 30 years old and unlikely to ever improve
4) He has been trending in the wrong direction for years
5) Russell, a lefty, does not address the actual hole on the blueline

We’ve used everything under the sun to hammer home these points, but all of those things are trumped in the eyes of Oiler management by Russell’s willingness to try hard and sacrifice his body in the name of shot blocking. It simply doesn’t matter what happens when he’s on the ice.

But here’s what we got and what Edmonton was so happy with that they gave Russell a 30% pay increase and a 4 year term.

GF/60 Russell On: 2.04 GF/60
GF/60 Russell Off: 2.69 GF/60

GA/60 Russell On: 1.69 GA/60
GA/60 Russell Off: 2.28 GA/60

The difference between the two is that the Oilers had a net positive in goals of 0.41 without Russell on the ice and a 0.35 with him on. The difference isn’t *that* pronounced this past year, which is good. The problem is when we try to figure out how much of that the Oilers can count on beyond this past year.

Goals for and against are the ultimate measure of success, but as anyone who hates analytics will tell you, the game of hockey is fluid and there are so many factors to take into account. It’s true. There are. For example, goals for and against are just one measure that are actually determined by shots against and the goaltender’s ability to stop them. In turn we can look at shot quality, location, type, and volume. We can look at fluctuations in save percentages which will swing wildly about from year to year.

We have to figure out what out of these numbers are affected by the skill and play of Russell and which are not. In the case of skaters, you’ll see me talk about things skaters can control, like what happens with the puck right up to the point it’s been released in a shot. With goaltenders, evaluations will be done via dark rituals and incantations.

Kris Russell’s best friend on the Oilers and the man he owes at least the 30% of his contract that constitutes the raise, is Cam Talbot. Russell’s on-ice save percentage has literally never been higher in his NHL career than when Talbot was making his Vezina candidate run (A .938 sv % with Russell on the ice). Last year it was a brutal .905 sv% between Calgary and Dallas. Before that it was .928 in Calgary. Before that it was .912 with the Flames. He’s been near the top of his team, he’s been in the middle, he’s been on the bottom, but when he needed it the most Talbot came through with an otherworldly performance.

This is almost assuredly what the Oiler brass thinks they are getting with Russell. This is the impact they think he has. And if he has an on-ice save percentage in high .930’s for all 4 years as an Oiler then by golly I’ll be pleased as punch. There isn’t anything in his past to suggest he will keep that save percentage and as a result his goals against will hit the skids, but since everyone already knew that and didn’t care, it shouldn’t be an issue.

Of course, the biggest problem is that Russell’s most championed ability is his shot blocking. This is his number one strength, a league leader. That should mean that as a result, his Fenwick numbers should bear out positively. Fenwick is just shot attempts that either hit the net or miss but exclude all the ones that get blocked. So a player who blocks shots really well and is also a solid defender ought to see a nice Fenwick as a result.

Russell was the worst Oiler defender by Fenwick as both a raw percentage (49.2%) and relative to other players on his team (-3.1%). The biggest problem being that his own partner had a better Fenwick against, which suggests he does better without Russell in that regard, and that the team is actually hurt to the tune of -5.11 unblocked shots generated for per hour with number 4 out there. Or put another way, the team is getting 42.8 unblocked attempts per 60 minutes of 5v5 hockey when Russell is on the bench but because he can’t move the puck and allows the opposition to get extended zone time that drops to just 37.7 unblocked attempts per 60 minutes when he’s on the ice.

The issues with his Fenwick are extremely problematic because they are getting worse all the time.
Kris Russell’s FF% RelTM:

2012-2013: 1.2
2013-2014: -2.4
2014-2015: -0.9
2015-2016: -2.6
2016-2017: -3.1

This is supposed to be where his best attribute shows up, and it doesn’t. If he’s a great passer and his shot blocking creates a positive effect then surely the Oilers would benefit from this in a tangible, measurable way. More passing, cleaner entries equates to more shots and attempts. And yet, we have the opposite effect. So either we have to believe that this magical effect cannot be registered by the people watching and tracking all the events on the ice that are controlled by the skaters OR that it’s powerful enough to make Talbot have a .938 save percentage in lieu of affecting the shots and attempts.

Transitioning to just my final point on this deal. If Everything goes the way it is planned then Nurse and Benning will develop into players who are at the bare minimum, 2nd pairing caliber. If we all agree to ignore every shred of evidence that points otherwise: all the video, statistics, and logic that weaves them all together, then Russell is at best a number 4 defender. That’s the best light and totally dependent on the power of imagination. If Nurse and Benning get better then they ought to reach that status within a season or two.

When that happens, there will be at least 2 more years of Kris Russell getting paid like Oscar Klefbom but contributing those minutes on the 3rd pair. And, the odds of him getting primo minutes with McDavid will plummet with every minor improvement made by the likes of Benning, Nurse, or others in the system. The declining trend in his relative numbers is infinitely more likely to sustain versus a career high in save percentage and everything that he tries to eat will turn to dust in his mouth.

The plan is to improve, but if it happens then a pretty significant chunk of the cap will have been allocated to an easily replaceable player for years. Blocked from pay and play will be Nurse and Benning without first moving out another defender. If it’s Klefbom, Larsson, or Sekera the team will surely be worse for it.

This contract doesn’t make sense. The Oilers didn’t get offense but they’re paying for it. They didn’t get improved metrics in defensive categories but they’re paying for it. They aren’t getting a young player who ought to improve but they’re paying for it. They didn’t get a solution to the problem on the right side but they’re paying for it. They didn’t get someone with a history of success but they’re paying for it.

I don’t know what they think they’re getting from Russell, but it will almost certainly be heartache.

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