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Improvement From The Bottom Pair |
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I consider Edmonton’s defense to be particularly weak even after the trade for Adam Larsson. If we can call Klefbom and Larsson a reasonably young and capable top pairing, then after that we are still essentially left with the defense the Oilers finished with a year ago. The remaining four defenders comprise of Sekera, Fayne, Nurse, and Davidson. Some combination of these players will be on the ice for roughly two thirds of the time. If Edmonton’s defense is really going to improve it has to come from somewhere within this group.
I think the pairing of Sekera and Fayne is as stable as they come. That’s not to say they’re great together, but they are both well-established NHL players. It’s a veteran duo that the coach had together for a significant time and they kept the shot attempts virtually even during that time. The problem is that any duo featuring Mark Fayne as one half is impossibly bland. Mark Fayne is the pablum of NHL defenders. He’s there to punch in, do the job, punch out, then go home and read outdated technical manuals to find spelling and grammatical errors. That’s a day in the life of NHL defenseman Mark Fayne.
If Andrej Sekera can record 30 or more points again next year then I think that keeps him well within the top 60 of NHL defenders. To me, Sekera is a quality number three defender who can fit in on a pair with players like Fayne and play a responsible game as well as fit in with offensive players and create some decent offense. In my perfect world, Sekera would be paired with someone more dynamic than Fayne, but until Chiarelli pulls the trigger on a deal, there isn’t anyone on the roster that fits that description.
The real x-factors to Edmonton’s defense next year, barring any new player movement, will be the combination of Darnell Nurse and Brandon Davidson. With these two players it’s all about taking the next steps in their careers. Nurse needs to take a big step forward if he’s going to be the difference maker the Oilers thought they drafted 7th overall in 2013. Brandon Davidson needs to maintain the level of play he stormed into last season with.
Darnell Nurse just completed his first tour of duty in the NHL and it had its fair share of ups and downs. While he played huge minutes, including at least secondary PP minutes, in the OHL, when he joined the Oilers that time all but disappeared. He averaged just 13 seconds per game on the power play. So to see his offensive contributions crater from the OHL to the NHL isn’t overly surprising. Unfortunately, his 5v5 points per 60 minutes was overall pretty disappointing.
Nurse was dead last in 5v5 Points per 60 minutes among Oiler defenders with at least 500 minutes played. His 0.31 P/60 places him behind even Martin Marincin in this category. This was fueled by a truly awful stretch between January 21st and March 22nd where he played 24 consecutive games without registering a single point. While Nurse’s point totals when he played for the Greyhounds weren’t especially eye-popping, he did finish at roughly a point per game in his final season. Surely he wants to provide more than what he gave the team a year ago.
The problem wasn’t just his offense though. In the same criteria, he was by far the worst possession defender with 45.5% CF through his first 69 games as an NHL player. In terms of CF% RelTM, he had an anchor-like -4.8%. The next lowest CF%RelTM among Oiler defenders who played 500 minutes was Sekera’s 0.1%. It’s quite the noticeable drop. Nurse was getting hammered out there in every pairing except the 45 minutes he played with Davidson and the 13 minutes he played with Reinhart. The good news for Oiler fans is that Nurse’s possession numbers cratered between November and mid-January, but bounced back after that (to still sub-500 levels but significantly better than before).
For Nurse to become a difference maker, it will take a huge step forward. He has all the physical tools to be a fantastic defender, but it’s a long road ahead based on that first year in professional hockey. I will be happy to see him inch closer to that break-even possession player and for him to add more offense to his game. Edmonton is in a position where they don’t have to thrust Nurse into a roster spot he isn’t capable of playing in. He can stay on that 3rd pair and earn more time organically.
In my view, the biggest potential difference maker on the Oilers bottom pairing will be Brandon Davidson. He was so good, that right now the Oilers website has him listed on the 2nd pairing left side, but I think Sekera & Fayne stay together and that means Davidson lands on the 3rd pair right side. I like this spot for him, despite the fact that he’s another lefty.
Davidson finished the season as the number 1 Oiler defender in terms of both Points per 60 minutes (0.54 P/60) and in Corsi For (52.0% CF) and in CF%RelTM (4.1%) with a minimum of 500 minutes played 5v5. The kid played brilliantly for the Oilers. I questioned whether he was ever going to be more than a replacement level player before this past season and he completely zoomed all of my expectations. I have never been more wrong about what any one player was capable of doing.
The next step in Davidson’s development/career isn’t to get even better. It is simply just to do it again. Prove it wasn’t just some magic he caught for 51 games before falling back to earth. If Brandon Davidson can follow up his 2015-2016 and be equally as impactful in 2016-2017 then the Oilers will have found one hell of a player. I’m not ready to count him among Edmonton’s bounty on defense until it happens again. When someone comes out of left-field the way he did I don’t think it’s smart to expect a continuation of performance until he replicates it for more than what he already has.
778 minutes isn’t enough time at the top for me to believe it’s real without more information to support it. This isn’t like McDavid coming in as the 1st overall pick, the most celebrated rookie in a decade. Davidson came in as someone who looked like waiver wire fodder, not a top 4 defender. That’s why he’s such an x-factor for this team.
Edmonton’s defense at this point consists of 5 returnees and if they want to get better then it’s all about internal improvement. Klefbom doesn’t need to get better. He needs to get healthy. Sekera and Fayne are unlikely to be more than what they’ve shown themselves to be up to this point in their careers. It’s all about Nurse and Davidson taking strides on the bottom pairing. Nurse has all the tools. Davidson has a brief history of high performance. These two are where any major improvement from the bottom 4 are coming from.
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