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G72 Oilers vs Kings: Killer Instincts |
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Edmonton is back down in the Wildcard spot this morning. The good news is that the Oilers have a game in hand on both the Ducks and the Flames. This is going to come down to the wire. It is also helpful that the Oilers schedule is generally easier than the other clubs in the race.
The Kings are the target today and will be again two more times before this season comes to an end. Los Angeles is 10 points back of Edmonton and 6 points back of the Nashville Predators. They just got the snot beat out of them on the ice by the Flames last night, punctuated by nasty elbow by Tkachuk on Drew Doughty that may have literally beat some snot out of the Norris trophy winning defender.
The Flames rookie forward has gained a reputation in the first season of his pro career as a greasy, dirty player. That elbow is going to get him a phone hearing by the department of player safety. If he misses a couple games that’s great news for Oiler fans. Tkachuk is an important piece of the Flames puzzle and if he’s sitting any amount of time then that’s fantastic.
As for the Kings, Edmonton can effectively decimate their chances at making the playoffs in the three games they have yet to play against them. The Oilers and the Kings have split the two games they’ve played so far with Edmonton winning their last match. Each team has scored 5 goals against the other between those two games. It’s been relatively even so far.
The Kings are an interesting team from a fancy stats perspective. They control the flow of play 5v5 very well. They are one of the top teams in Corsi and Fenwick, but at the same time they are dead last in 5v5 shooting percentage. They are consistently near the bottom of the NHL in shooting percentage, year over year. There is some suggestion that the things Sutter pushes to keep the puck in the hands of his players also lowers their offensive production. The Kings are getting goals from Jeff Carter, Tanner Pearson, and then it’s a little from everybody. It’s really an interesting scenario.
One thing that isn’t helping the Kings this year is the nightmare season that Kopitar is having. The Captain has just 65GP, 10-34-44. Just 10 goals this season is brutal. This season is likely the difference between them making it to the post-season or not, and with just 10 games left on the schedule, it’s probably too little too late. He is typically good for 20 or more points than what he will likely finish with this year. For a club that carefully balances its offense like the Kings, 20 fewer points than normal is a massive bridge to gap. 5v5 it’s even more pronounced. Kopitar went from 2.18 Points per 60 minutes at 5v5 a year ago to just 1.42 Points per 60 minutes today. This is a catastrophic drop off for a heavy minutes player.
The Kings are going to be upset about the outcome of the game they played against the Flames. They aren’t as dangerous as they once were, but the Oilers would be foolish to think the Kings will just roll over for them. That said, the team should be seeing a club in a vulnerable position and taking full advantage of them. There has to be a killer instinct shown by this group at some point before the playoffs start. Los Angeles will give them the most opportunities to show that.
LINEUP
For reasons that escape me, the Oilers will alter their lineup to take Benning out and replace him with Gryba. They will also take Slepyshev out and replace him with Hendricks. There are no reasons for this that make sense.
Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Lucic RNH Eberle
Pouliot Desharnais Kassian
Caggiula Letestu Hendricks
Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Russell
Nurse Gryba
Talbot
Brossoit
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Get Carter. The name to circle on the Los Angeles Kings is Jeff Carter. It has been for a long time now, but it’s as true today as it ever was. The big center/winger is a goal scorer on a team that doesn’t have a lot of goal scorers. He has 71GP, 31-29-60 on the year. He is far and away their top offensive producer and it’s not just points. He’s a shot generating machine for the Kings. He has 60 more shots than the next closest player on his team. Getting him out of his rhythm is paramount to the Oiler’s chances at success. I know I stress this point a lot, but it really behooves Edmonton to get the Nurse/Benning or Klefbom/Larsson pair out against Carter. They can hide Russell against other lines 5v5 and it should be more manageable.
2) The Race. A hat trick effort by Sidney Crosby has vaulted him to a tie with McDavid in points. Crosby has the tie-breaker locked down with his league leading goal total. Connor McDavid, if he wants to win the Art Ross, it’s not good to be tied. He has to finish with more points than Sid The Kid (no longer a kid) and he knows it. He also knows he was robbed of an assist on an empty net goal by Draisaitl that was NOT awarded when Draisiatl was tripped. These last 10 games should be an absolute blast for those watching Edmonton’s top player. McDavid is going to be flying until the end and the teams needs him to do that. The Kings lock things down better than most teams in the NHL and they’ve been doing it for years. If there’s anything that can defeat a strong system it’s unparalleled speed and talent. That’s McDavid.
3) Hello, Nurse. Darnell Nurse has been getting back to the level of play he left off at before injury forced him to miss almost 40 games in the schedule. Today, Darnell Nurse is top 3 in shot attempt percentage on the defense. He’s climbing in offensive contributions as well. In terms of his outcomes, Nurse is night and day ahead of where he was a year ago. In terms of his style of play, that is coming back to him. He is learning how to effectively use his great skating ability and physicality. A year ago we had a lot of questions about his ceiling. There were doubts. Nothing is set in stone, but I feel a lot less doubtful now than I did 12 months ago when it comes to Darnell Nurse. He can be a leader for this team in time.
Puck drops tonight at 7PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet West. Game On!
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