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G52 Oilers vs Wild: Back to Work

January 31, 2017, 4:52 PM ET [139 Comments]
Matt Henderson
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Vacation is over. The only player who had to participate at the All-Star Game was Connor McDavid and all he did was score highlight reel goals and set a new record in the fastest lap competition.

Now, before the Red Wings fans get all up in arms, Dylan Larkin is still fast. He’s just not McDavid fast. Everybody knows that Larkin’s record is false due to the allowance of a massive head start whereas McDavid had to start from a stand-still. I don’t know why they even count Larkin’s record, because it was done under conditions nobody else ever received and apparently nobody ever will.

It’s not a knock on Larkin (who is super fast). It’s a knock on the NHL for screwing it up in the first place. Anyway, McDavid is the new fastest NHL player ever, but you already knew that.

That was the fun stuff. For the rest of the club these past several days have been an opportunity to do some resting, relaxing, and general healing. Although the Oilers technically are a leader in man-games lost, the overall impact of those players lost is relatively low. Iiro Pakarinen, Andrew Ference, and Darnell Nurse are the big three driving up the numbers. That’s Edmonton’s 13th forward, broken former Captain, and their 5th defenseman. Nurse is by far the most impactful player still missing time due to injury.




If Mark Spector is right, that Darnell Nurse may be relatively close to returning, then the Oilers have some decisions to make soon. Nurse played predominantly on the 3rd pairing this year and was really excelling in that role. He looked significantly more comfortable and calmer on the ice as a result. He was also making great strides (figuratively AND literally) by transporting the puck out of his zone to help Edmonton’s transition game.

Nurse is top 3 on Edmonton’s blueline in shot attempt percentage and percentage relative to teammates. Although his PDO is the 2nd lowest on the club, it’s my opinion that he was having a fantastic follow up year to what was ostensibly a rough rookie season. There’s also an untapped level of offensive contribution with Nurse as well. You can just see it that there is something inside him waiting to burst out.

So when he does return the most likely scenario is that Davidson comes out. That makes the most sense in terms of what we think the club will actually do. Things only get muddy if the Oilers actually make a trade to strengthen the RHD situation. Let’s use the hypothetical scenario of Shattenkirk being added to the club. This would presumably push Russell to his natural side on the 3rd pair. In those circumstances, if Nurse were to return to full health the coaching staff would be deciding on one of Nurse, Benning, or Russell to sit out.

I can tell you who *I* prefer to sit, but that player is a McLellan favorite based on ice time. Anyway, the left side of the defense corps is about to get crowded when Nurse is deemed healthy enough. This is where the balance between left-handed skaters and right-handed skaters starts to matter a lot more.

LINEUP

Everybody is rested. Let’s assume it all stays pretty much the same.

Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Pouliot RNH Eberle
Lucic Caggiula Slepyshev
Hendricks Letestu Kassian

Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Russell
Davidson Benning

Talbot
Brossoit

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) No longer asking the question. Once upon a time Craig MacTavish was asked if Devan Dubnyk was a number 1 starter. His was response was a smarmy “If you have to ask the question…” Well, nobody is asking now. Dubnyk has a league leading .936 save percentage through 38 games this year to go with 5 shutouts. Not only is he a number 1 in the NHL, he’s in my view the leading candidate for the Vezina trophy. I don’t begrudge the Oilers too much for moving on from Dubnyk the year they did. The Oilers, Predators, and Canadiens all saw where his game was and moved on that year. That said, it is an incredible redemption story for Dubnyk to be able to come back and re-establish his career the way he did in Minnesota. That said, Edmonton is NOT facing Dubnyk, according to reports. The Wild are starting their clear number 2, Kuemper, tonight. Darcy Kuemper has a .901 save percentage in 10 games and has given up 3-4 goals in each of his last 4 starts. Hurrah!

2) Filthy Bruce. Here we are yet again in another year where (filthy) Bruce Boudreau has his club in a position to win their Division. The Minnesota Wild are one of the very best teams in the NHL. They have the 2nd most points in the league. They are the highest scoring team in the Western Conference. They have given up the 2nd fewest goals against in the NHL. Their goal differential is a ridiculous +51 this year. Boudreau is a proven winner in the NHL and he’s done it again. I’m skeptical of a few things with the Wild (for example they are consistently out-shot/possessed 5v5), but Boudreau finds a way and he has a great goalie. Those things are certainly linked. So without Dubnyk in net tonight, the Oilers take on a significantly less impressive club.

3) Nuge rounding out. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is slowly emerging from that funk he was in for so long. Right he is tied with Maroon in points at 26 in 51 games. His shooting percentage has climbed a little so that it’s sitting at 8% right now. Happily, he has had 7 points in his last 9 games. The Nuge has been slowly coming into his own as the 2C of the Oilers. He takes on the toughest assignments and has all season long. Now that the offense is also coming in the last 10 games or so, it’s no surprise that the Oilers have rocked a 7-2-1 record over that span. He’s a quality centerman who quietly goes about his business. Right now, business is good.

Puck drops at 7PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet West. Game On!

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