Edmonton is in a tailspin of sorts and is in desperate need of a shakeup. The coach cant change much more than he has with the lineup so he’s going to the only place that he hasn’t touched so far, starting goaltender. Tonight Laurent Brossoit makes his first start of the season.

We will talk more about goaltending a little later, so let’s get back to the skaters. The Oilers are putting up goose eggs in all the wrong places. The whole left side of the forward lines has been unable to score a single goal. You know things aren’t going well when Kris Russell and Adam Larsson are tied with Leon Draisaitl for 3rd in team goals.

Edmonton’s forwards are due in a big way. I recently took a look at the 5v5 numbers for the Oil and in every shot metric available, Edmonton has performed extremely well. Shots, Attempts, Scoring Chances, Expected Goals, all of them. They all peg Edmonton as a high possession club that is producing dangerous shots along with volume.

The biggest problem is that they BOTH getting suspect goaltending AND their skaters can’t find twine. Edmonton is shooting 4.03% right now at even strength. They are getting just .905 sv% from their netminders 5v5. Last year they were shooting 8.28% and getting .927 sv% during 5v5 play. So, yeah, things look really bleak right now, but they are getting hammered by percentages a lot more than by fundamentals.

I think the result of this will be that the team assumes it’s fundamentally challenged and will simplify its game. That’s not the worst thing in the world, but it’s still not likely the accurate conclusion. Players, coaches, and GMs are as susceptible to “PDO Madness” as anyone else. PDO is the stat that combines Sh% and Sv%. Over 100 and you’re lucky. Under and you’re unlucky. Edmonton being below 95% is somewhere in “Cursed” territory. It will improve whether McLellan changes his system, plays the backup, or does nothing at all.

That said, I want to see Edmonton’s left wingers really start engaging in play. Maroon and Lucic aren’t here to be wallflowers. They have to physically impose themselves. If they do that then it will open room up for RNH and Yamamoto. McDavid is still a world unto himself. Lucic really needs to get his offense going before the attention moves off of Cam Talbot and onto the massive term and hit he’s carrying around with him.

LINEUP

Brossoit gets the start tonight as Cam Talbot works to find his game. Benning is sick and won’t play tonight.

Maroon McDavid Yamamoto
Lucic RNH Strome
Jokinen Malone Slepyshev
Khaira Letestu Kassian

Klefbom Larsson
Nurse Russell
Auvitu Gryba

Brossoit

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) Back Up. Edmonton is playing the backup Laurent Brossoit tonight. LB was drafted as an Edmonton Oil King and was at one point thought very highly of as a prospect goalie. The Oilers acquired him in the Ladi Smid trade and his development hit some rough patches, but he eventually became the AHL starter. By attrition he ended up the backup, but in 8 appearances a year ago, Brossoit had a .928 save percentage. After two relief appearances this season, he has a .926 save percentage. Now, starting and relieving aren’t the same thing so we are looking to see how both he and the team in front of him reacts.

2) Finding Strome. The dreams that people had of Strome scoring 30+ on McDavid’s wing have pretty much dried up, but that doesn’t mean he cant become a useful player for the Oil. The team desperately needs to find him a home where he can actually make an impact. The narrative on this player in the local media has already transitioned to pure salary dump in the Eberle deal. There has to be a fit somewhere on this team for him. If he’s not going to make anything happen at centre then maybe with Lucic and RNH is the answer. I don’t know. I hope he finds a home.

3) Sneaky Good. The Hurricanes are a sneaky good team because of the way they are coached. They have had excellent possession metrics for a while but lacked high end talent up front and any stopping power in net. They are only three games into their season, but the offense is spread out again. Scott Darling has been below average in their three games, but the Canes have kept teams to 25 shots per game so his play has been masked. They are putting Cam Ward in net tonight and here’s hoping he’s even worse than Darling.

Puck drops tonight at 7PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet Oilers. Game On!

Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy

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