The Vegas Golden Knights are the 2nd best team in the NHL and it is Mid-January. Nobody expected it and I think it’s fantastic. Most teams were capable of saving the vast majority of their desirable players and for the most part did. I thought Vegas even took it easy on a couple teams. Only a few teams, most notably Florida, made bizarre decisions with regards to Vegas.

Still, this rag-tag group has pushed their way to the top of the Western Conference. They have the highest goal differential in the West. They’ve had to battle through countless goalie injuries. When you look overall, they aren’t riding a wild PDO streak. They are just a solid hockey club finding ways to win.

Statistically, they are relatively unremarkable. They are middle of the road 5v5, less than that on special teams, and yet it all seems to work. And especially so at home. This is where things get really interesting.

The Golden Knights are 18-2-1 on home ice. It’s almost as if there’s something about Las Vegas that distracts their opponents and leaves them in a state where they are incapable of performing up to their usual standards. I wonder what it might be…

Once you filter for home ice, the Vegas Golden Knights remain statistically unremarkable in all the shot metrics. However, their shooting percentage and save percentage are zoomed. We can explain this is pure luck or we can consider the possibility that teams are coming into games against Vegas with a diminished capacity to perform. Shots are less accurate and easier for the goalie to stop. The goaltenders aren’t quite as ready as normal for shots against.

I’m not sure why the PDO of the Knights jumps so high at home and if there is a rational explanation or not. All I know for certain is that the Oilers are playing the Knights in Vegas tonight and – oh yeah – it’s Connor McDavid’s 21st birthday. The kid has been 21, in Vegas, since midnight.

The only thing that helps Edmonton avoid this Vegas Flu is that they played yesterday evening and arrived later in the night, so presumably there’s more incentive to actually sleep. In addition, the team begins its bye week as soon as this game is over, so there are likely already plans for a massive party in Vegas that won’t leave them unprepared for a game.

The Oilers have beaten up on Vegas once already this season and it was McDavid who was the driver in that game. Perhaps he has a little more birthday magic in store for the Knights and didn’t spend it on last night on that incredible shift. When he decides to take over the game, there’s no stopping him. Just ask Oliver Ekman-Larsson.

Happy Birthday, Connor McDavid. I'm sure Vegas will be fun. I hope that starts with a win.

Points Back: 9

LINEUP

I don’t know who will start in net. Montoya played well in relief after Talbot was pulled about 3 minutes into the game. I’m going to assume Talbot, but we shall see.

Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Lucic RNH Puljujarvi
Khaira Strome Cammalleri
Caggiula Letestu Kassian

Klefbom Benning
Nurse Larsson
Sekera Russell

Talbot

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) Seriously Florida? When the Panthers hit full-reverse on the Computer Boys Era, they threw out the baby with the bath water on a couple decent players. For reasons that only 200 Hockey Men can know, they didn’t protect 30 goal scorer Jonathan Marchessault in expansion. Vegas claimed him and he’s on pace for another 30 goal season, but now also for roughly 75 points in total. IN ADDITION, the Panthers traded Reilly Smith to Vegas for a 4th round pick after he had a slightly down year. Smith is on pace for 60-65 points this season. One of the reasons that Vegas has been so good is that the old-school hockey powers in Florida are really awful at their jobs. Watch out for those ex-Panthers.

2) Hellllllooooo Nurse! Last night’s game was a great one from Darnell Nurse, who showed what a decent point shot is capable of doing. Just get the puck to the net and good things happen. The evolution of Darnell Nurse has been one of the few fun parts of this season. He has all the physical tools to succeed, notably the skating and physicality. This is his 2nd season as a positive possession player and it is already his most productive season in the NHL offensively. He leads the Oiler blueline in Points per 60 minutes 5v5, but remains out of the Power Play. I wonder how long that can last.

3) The Flower. Vegas has had to use 5 goalies this season, after assuming that their big core piece out of expansion was Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. The former Penguins goalie has battled injury and only appeared in 12 games this season, but he’s back and should be in net tonight. Fleury has a remarkable .945 save percentage in his limited time this year, so the Oilers will be tested tonight. There’s nothing in Fleury’s resume to suggest he’s going to stay at such super-human levels, but then again there’s that Vegas Flu to help him out.

Puck drops tonight at 8PM Mountain Time on HNIC. Game On!

Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy

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