The Oilers and the Flames play a game tonight that hasn’t mattered in a long time. Yeah, for the most part the Battle of Alberta has had a lot more to do with nostalgia than it did about important jockeying for position in the Western Conference.

That’s on Edmonton for the most part. You cant be parading through 28th-30th place and point your finger at someone else when your rivalries die out. Rivalries happen when teams actually matter. I have time for an argument that back when there were 24 teams and 66.6% of the league made the Playoffs that it was easier to matter, but still – Edmonton didn’t hold its end of the bargain up.

For a very long time the Oilers have tried to slingshot past the Flames, who haven’t even been a very good club themselves, but have failed to do so. All the 1st overall picks. All the coaching changes. All the hope built up every summer with the dream of seeing the Flames in the rearview mirrors fell flat every winter. Every damned winter.

Finally, Oiler fans can look forward to this game in the schedule being more than reminder of how good the eighties were and how awful the team is now. They can look forward to a game that actually matters! The Oilers matter. The Flames matter. This game hasn’t had any real implications since 2005-2006 when the Oilers fought for 8th in the West and the Flames took 3rd.

Today, the Oilers sit 3rd in the Pacific Division with 51 points. The Flames are nipping at their heels with 48 points (and one extra game played). Last night the Flames lost to the Devils, which naturally helps keep the Flames at bay. These 4 point games are crucial to the Playoff race. The Battle of Alberta is going to be about more than a reason to talk about Lanny’s moustache and Moose’s elbows. It’s going to be a tooth and nail fight for the playoffs.

Both teams are in the top half of the NHL when it comes to shot attempt ratio and shot ratio. The Oilers are stronger up front and have a more balanced defense than any time in the last decade. The Flames are strongest on the back end and rely on more balanced scoring from their forwards. There are 5 points separating the Flames top scorer (Backlund, 29) from their 6th (Monahan, 24). That same span of 1st to 6th for the Oilers takes you from McDavid at 50 points to Nugent Hopkins at 20 points.

To put it another way, the Flames have scored just 8 fewer goals than the Oilers have all year, but their top goal scorer only has 12 on the year. He would be ranked 4th on the Oilers in that metric. The Flames are getting offensive contributions from a greater percentage of their roster than Edmonton. Edmonton just happens to have the most offensively proficient player in the world on their club.

Both of these teams, hopefully, are starting a several year trend of rising in the standings. That’s important to Oiler hockey, Flames hockey, and Canadian hockey in general. This is just as it’s important for the Leafs, Canadiens, and Senators to start their return to the playoffs as well. Vancouver can wallow in misery for eternity for all I care. If the Battle of Alberta is back then we are finally in for some meaningful hockey.

LINEUP

There is some indication that Larsson will be out tonight, likely linked to the blocked shot that seemed to hurt him against the Devils. Khaira is out with illness.

Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Pouliot RNH Eberle
Lucic Caggiula Slepyshev
Hendricks Letestu Kassian

Klefbom Benning
Sekera Russell
Davidson Gryba

Talbot
Brossoit

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) Stop me, I Dare You. Edmonton’s top line of Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl has spent just 98 minutes together 5v5 this year. It represents McLellan loading up the top spot with its 3 most dangerous offensive players. It is a challenge to the other team “Stop us if you can”. And so far? Nobody can. In those 98 minutes together the line has a 67.6% CF (that would be the best of any 1 line in the NHL). They have a 72.7% Goals For percentage (and their PDO is essentially 100). This is the scariest line in the NHL and with a combination of speed, size, and skill (plus some advanced chemistry), Edmonton can play Power vs Power and churn through opposition defense. The Oilers have laid down the challenge to the opposition to stop them when they play this line. Will Calgary be the team that figures out how to stop them?

2) Tkachuk Making Me Tkarazy. Rookie Matthew Tkachuk is tied for 2nd in Flames scoring with 27 points and made an impression on the Oilers early in the year with his mean streak. He has NHL size. He has NHL skill. He has NHL pedigree. He’s an offensive contributor as a teenager and a possession contributor as a teenager. If this were some other year he might get serious Calder talk, but with Laine and Matthews dominating the conversation, Tkachuk is going to be forgotten. But Tkachuk is the Flames’ 5v5 Points per 60 leader and their Corsi leader in both raw percentage and relative percentage. What makes this kid’s shot attempt numbers so striking, to me, is that he’s doing it with the 2nd lowest Offensive Zone Faceoff percentage on the team. He only starts 22.1% of his shifts in the OZ. To be pushing the river so much with those circumstances is incredible. Edmonton has to have this kid’s name circled. More than Monahan. More than Gaudreau!

3) Pouliot Coming Around. Despite the ongoing campaign in Edmonton to discredit Pouliot as a player, this is a winger who has contributed offensively and possessionally (?) as an Oiler as recent as a year ago. There is a player there. While the funk that he was in has been very real and his performance stunk for a couple months, there is no reason to believe he just lost everything that made him an effective player over the summer. In the last few games we’ve seen the turning around of Pouliot’s game. Against the Devils he was skating with purpose and his line, though ultimately kept off the score sheet, was dangerous. He personally contributed to three different 2v1’s. Edmonton’s 2nd half gets a huge boost if Benoit Pouliot is playing the way he can.

Puck drops tonight at 8PM Mountain Time on Hockey Night in Canada. Game On!

Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy

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