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Sweden Faces Team Europe For Right to Play Canada in World Cup Finals

September 25, 2016, 9:47 AM ET [9 Comments]
Levine: Team Sweden World Cup
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Sweden and Europe meet Sunday at 1pm for the right to face Canada in the finals of the World Cup. Sweden went 2-0-1 in the games that counted with the only loss a 4-3 overtime defeat in their third game against North America after entering the game knowing that they needed just one point to advance. Europe, the surprise of the final four teams that remained,

Europe defeated Sweden in the final tune-up between the two teams on September 14 in Washington. That game was a completed 180-degree turn from Europe's first two game, a pair of loss to North America. When the real game started, Europe dominated in a 3-0 win over Team USA and eked out a 3-2 overtime victory over the Czech Republc before falling 4-1 to Canada. For Tre Kroner, that 6-2 loss to Europe it raised questions on just how good that team is and if Henrik Lundqvist was really for the games that counted. We found out just how good the team is and that Lundqvist was more than ready for prime time when the real lights went on September 18

Keys to the Game:

Europe's patient style vs. Sweden ability to go from offense to defense

As Dan Rosen wrote: "Team Europe has been more of a sit-back team in this tournament, waiting for mistakes with five players back in the zone, content to sacrifice aggressiveness for the sake of winning." Europe waits for a mistake, then counter attacks, taking advantage of any odd-man rush or defensive breakdown.

Sweden has the ability to quickly go from defense to offense. In addition, as we have seen in the tournament, the Swedes are excellent at cycling the puck, wearing down their opponent while keeping the puck in the zone for second and third chances. Look for Sweden to dump-and-chase, forcing the bigger and slower Team Europe defense to turn and go back deep in their zone to get the puck, which could create turnovers and offensive chances as the game wears on.

Sweden's Power Play vs Europe's Penalty Kill

Tre Kroner's power play was dominant in pre-tourney play, But in round-robin play, despite an abundance of talent, they went just 1-for-10. One of Team Europe's best attributes has been their penalty kill, stoning 11 of 12 chances against. Europe has also struggled when on the man-advantage, going 0-for-11 in the three round-robin games. Whichever one comes out on top here will have a leg up on advancing.

Halak vs Lundqvist

The two goalies don't play each other. But like Metro Division games, whoever plays better, his team has an excellent chance of winning. Halak has played all 182 minutes, posting a .946 save percentage, allowing six goals on 111 shots. Those numbers would be even better, but he and Europe was swamped by a driven Canada team.

Lundqvist, as noted above, didn't play the first game of the tourney due to the flu after being sidelined in pre-tourney play due to a rib injury he had suffered in practice. He made up for it by posting a 36-save shutout over Finland then made 45 saves in a 4-43 loss to North America. Mixed into those 45 saves were several spectacular ones to keep Sweden in the game in the first period and tied in the third and overtime.

Dan Rosen pointed out the following: "Halak hasn't won a win-or-go-home game since the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Lundqvist is 6-2 in Game 7s in his NHL career and won the gold-medal game for Sweden in the 2006 Torino Olympics. He made 25 saves to help Sweden defeat Finland 2-1 in the semifinals of the 2014 Sochi Olympics." Those stats are great, but once the puck is dropped, all of it goes out the window and doesn't matter.

Matchups

Swedish coach Rikard Gronberg and Europe coach Ralph Krueger will play the match-up game. This game within the game should be pretty fascinating. Whichever team wins this battle should come out on top.

Sweden has rolled Sedin-Sedin-Eriksson and Forsberg-Backstrom-Hornqvist in all six contests to date. The Sedin line is mainly used in the offensive zone while the Backstrom line is deployed all over the ice and matches up against the first or second line of their opponent. The main defensive shutdown line for Sweden has been Hagelin-Kruger-Silfverberg, which is fairly in line with how each of the three players were utilized on their respective teams. Look for that trio to be match up against Europe's second line of Gaborik-Nielsen-Zuccarello, though they might also skate against Leon Draisaitll, who had a hat trick in Europe's 6-2 win over Sweden.

Kreuger and Europe could elect to use their top line of Tatar-Kopitar-Hossa against Backstrom's line. Kopitar, a Selke Award winner, and Hossa have the defensive pedigree to handle such a job, while Tatar fits in nicely with that duo. The second line centered by Frans Nielsen is more offensive minded with Gaborik and Zuccarello in the wings, though Zucc has shown at times, when focused on it, he can handle the job defensively. But having to play against the Sedin line might be more than that trip can handle. The third and fourth lines are not true shutdown lines, so a missed assignment or exploited match up, which seems more likely to be to Sweden's advantage, could change the game.

Projected lineups

TEAM EUROPE

Tomas Tatar - Anze Kopitar - Marian Hossa
Marian Gaborik - Frans Nielsen - Mats Zuccarello
Tobias Rieder - Leon Draisaitl - Nino Niederreiter
Thomas Vanek - Pierre-Edouard Bellemare - Jannik Hansen

Andrej Sekera - Zdeno Chara
Roman Josi - Dennis Seidenberg
Mark Streit - Christian Ehrhoff

Jaroslav Halak
Thomas Greiss

Injured: none

Scratched: Mikkel Boedker, Luca Sbisa, Philipp Grubauer

TEAM SWEDEN

Daniel Sedin - Henrik Sedin - Loui Eriksson
Filip Forsberg - Nicklas Backstrom - Patric Hornqvist
Carl Hagelin - Marcus Kruger - Jakob Silfverberg
Gabriel Landeskog - Patrik Berglund - Carl Soderberg

Mattias Ekholm - Erik Karlsson
Victor Hedman - Anton Stralman
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Niklas Hjalmarsson

Henrik Lundqvist
Jacob Markstrom

Injured: none

Scratched: Hampus Lindholm, Mikael Backlund, Jhonas Enroth
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