Over the last week or two, various blogs and message board threads have tried to decipher what the Blackhawks' lines and defense pairings will look like.
I'm going to do so as well here this morning. But also try to avoid guessing and assuming too much, while laying out the various options and cutting through some other assumptions that have been put out there as accepted fact—that probably shouldn't be.
If there's an assumption being made here it's that the Hawks will probably figure out a way to add a player or two here, with the most likely subtraction being Marian Hossa—whose great career is, in all likelihood, over.
So first your roster, as it stands today:
Jonathan Toews C
Patrick Kane RW
Brandon Saad LW
(Marian Hossa) RW
Richard Panik RW/LW
Artem Anisimov C
Lance Bouma LW
Patrick Sharp LW/RW
Tommy Wingels LW/C
Laurent Dauphin C
Jordin Tootoo RW
Nick Schmaltz RW/C/LW
Ryan Hartman RW/LW
Tanner Kero C
Tomas Jurco RW/LW
Duncan Keith LD
Brent Seabrook RD
Connor Murphy RD
Michal Kempny LD
Michal Rozsival RD
Gustav Forsling LD
Jan Rutta RD
Corey Crawford G
Anton Forsberg G
Something like that.
Now your forward lines. The first line will likely be the following:
Saad-Toews-Panik
2-3 years ago, the same line with Hossa at right wing, in place of his Slovakian facsimile Panik, was arguably the best line in hockey. If anyone other than Hossa (and many have been tried) has had chemistry with Toews in the last 2 years, it's been Panik. So it only makes sense to add Saad back in here to try to get this line back at least close to where it was.
In theory, at least, this should work. Saad's game complements the other two forwards and his speed and finishing ability brings the threat of the stretch pass back to the overall Hawk arsenal.
The second line:
Player X-Anisimov-Kane
No secret, the re-acquisition of Saad created a pretty big hole here. The following are the likely candidates—at present—to fill the vacant slot. The early "interwebs" money seems to be on either Nick Schmaltz or Patrick Sharp. Or possibly rookie and OHL scoring phenom Alex DeBrincat. Hartman is a possibility here, too.
This is where a couple of themes begin. One is that Joel Quenneville is going to be looking for any shreds of continuity and reliability wherever he can find them in his lineup from night to night. Whether the stories of Q storming out of a draft day coaches meeting are true or not, the roster turnover is dramatic this summer—and it's no secret Quenneville will almost always lean toward familiarity and experience over promise.
The other is the X-Factor of one Nick Schmaltz. A lot of the lineups thrown out there of late have Schmaltz plugged in to the top 6 as a left wing, where he played parts of last season. Schmaltz occasionally flashed his talent and promise in the role, but he never looked particularly natural bringing the puck into the middle off the left half board. The other issue is, when you look at the left wings who've played opposite Kane on the hawks' three recent Cup teams (Dustin Byfuglien, Sharp, Bryan Bickell), not to mention the recently departed Artemi Panarin, they don't remotely match the profile of Schmaltz. The other players are/were finishers or road graders (or both). Schmaltz' game is really more like Kane's, a guy with a nose for open ice and teammates, pass first, and better away from traffic.
Schmaltz is probably better suited to playing center or right wing.
A couple of darkhorses here: rookie LW Alex Fortin. Fortin never had the gaudy junior numbers of a DeBrincat, but in camps last year, he looked much more ready and at home playing with pros. Fortin is a pure left winger who can make plays and finish at top (NHL) speed, and is always around the play. Bowman favorite Tomas Jurco may get a look as well.
But the likeliest "contender" today for this position is Sharp—at 35, coming off hip surgery and allegedly two concussions last season. it just seems to make the most sense that Quenneville will roll Sharp out here first, cross his fingers, and hope there's enough left in the tank to take one more questionmark off his list—for the time being.
The third line is where things start to get dicey. But from the mixed bag Stan Bowman has assembled, there appear to be a couple of tiers of forwards: the first being, guys who perhaps fit more of a third line profile (Hartman, Schmaltz, Jurco, Kero) and the rest who are probably going to compose your fourth line (Wingels, Dauphin, Tootoo, Bouma), with a couple of all of the above in the press box, injured or in Rockford.
Kero is most likely to center line three, but Schmaltz could as well. Hartman is probably better on the right, Jurco on either wing. Though Schmaltz could be spotted on either side too.
This is a line loaded with promise and raw ability, but not much pro achievement. The Hawks would be counting on a serious step up from one to two of these players, which—if it happened—would help take the team to another level.
The fourth line:
Wingels or Dauphin at center, with Wingels available at either wing, Bouma most nights on the left side, and Tootoo playing every third game or so.
One thing about this line, it will be tough to play against.
Again, this all assumes no other changes.
On defense, the top 4 is likely:
Keith-Murphy
Kempny-Seabrook
Quenneville will likely break up his top 2 defenders and spread them out over the top 2 pairings to anchor a couple of young players with all the physical tools who haven't just put it all together yet.
Kempny's stick and game nicely complements Seabrook, and while Seabrook's numbers likely suffered from the "babysitting" assignment, Kempny's were actual pretty good (another example where advanced analytics taken out of context can be so misleading).
Ditto Keith and Murphy, the sticks and playing styles complement well in theory. And what the Hawks' lost in experience and leadership in Niklas Hjalmarsson, perhaps Murphy begins to make up with a positive size/speed combination.
After that, I would argue the only sure thing—perhaps now more sure with the trade of Quenneville favorite, Hjalmarsson—is another Q "go-to," Michal Rozsival.
Yes, Rozy. Like a malevolent cyborg/Jewel shopping cart, emerging battered, limping and frayed from truck crashes and a vat of molten steel, he maintains a vise-like grip on NHL life with the Hawks.
Pencil him in as your third pairing right side guy, or possibly at least #7. With perhaps Gustav Forsling as the left side of this pair, and Czech rookie and likely Rozsival protege Jan Rutta in the mix.
Goalie appears cut and dried. One note here. There seem to be a lot of questions and doubts about Anton Forsberg. This is understandable, as Scott Darling, by the time he left Chicago earlier this year, was a proven commodity at the NHL level, and Forsberg today is not.
That said, Forsberg comes to Chicago with a more complete pro resume than Darling did—much more AHL experience and success, including winning the Calder Cup last season.
What do you think? Answer on the message board,
I'll be back tomorrow with a look at another interesting angle that's emerged over the last year or so that has not been reported on yet. And one that may impact the Hawks' offseason even more in the days to come.
JJ
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
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