The salary cap, the CBA and math are not my strong suit. So forgive me if I’m off a bit here or there.
But it strikes me that while the salary cap math has improved for the Hawks over the last week or so, they’re not fully out of the woods.
Last night, after making his second significant trade of the offseason, sending Andrew Shaw to the Canadiens for two 2nd round picks, Blackhawk GM Stan Bowman stated to the media: “we don’t have a cap problem anymore.”
Well, that all depends on how you define “we” and whether you view the cap as a present day snapshot, or look at it a year or so out or more.
Are “we” going to seriously contend for a Stanley Cup this year, or are “we” going to be a team in transition, providing on-the-job training to rookies and/or a refuge for league-minimum veterans—a team that likely struggles to make the playoffs, much less advance?
Here, as it stands today—safely assuming recent Euro pro signees Martin Lundberg and Michal Kempny make the team—is the Hawk 23-man roster:
Keith Seabrook
Kempny Hjalmarsson
Svedberg van Riemsdyk
Gustafsson
Crawford
Darling
That’s about $63 million in cap commitment.
Add in about 4.2 million combined— in salary owed Rob Scuderi and 2015-16 performance bonuses—counting against the upcoming season’s cap.
And you get about (?) $67.2 million in cap hit, or about $5.8 million to fill 4 positions. Not so bad, right?
Ehhhhh, not so fast.
Here’s the tricky part. And where, quite honestly, a lot of Hawk fans seem to be in a state of denial.
There’s a purgative power to self-honesty. And there’s an addictive comfort in self-deceit.
The Hawks were beaten in the first round of the playoffs this past spring by a better team. In six games.
You could see it coming all season: too much reliance on one line for scoring, underwater or at best at evens 5-on-5 all season, relatively poor defensive numbers. All a recipe for an early out in the playoffs where you can’t pull out victories in 3-on-3 OT.
From that team, you’ve lost Teuvo Teravainen, Shaw, and likely Andrew Ladd, Dale Weise and Tomas Fleischmann, while you’ve added Lundberg and Kempny.
The huge glaring hole on your roster is the one that was there all season—perhaps only partially filled at times by Shaw before Ladd seemed to work—at first line left wing.
If you fail to fill that position adequately, you can count on being a one-line team again. And even if you think Kempny will upgrade the defense and its depth (as I do), you also have to replace what Shaw and Teravainen brought—just to get back to par.
1st line left wings, or even passable guys who can support the play (think, like a Troy Brouwer) don’t come cheap. That will likely cost at minimum $3.5 million or more likely $4 million or more next season.
And sure, insert the 22-man roster argument here. OK, that gives you a bit more wiggle room.
Or, sure, you can plug Nick Schmaltz or Tyler Motte into the 1LW role this season—two kids who have never played a minute of pro hockey. But then “we” are a team offering internships for inexperienced players in roles they regardless might never be able to completely fulfill. Both of those players are considered in some scouting to be nice 3rd line, two-way players—in the future.
Sure, you can trade Marcus Kruger. But then who takes key defensive zone draws and kills penalties next year in his place. They tried Artem Anisimov and his 43% in the dot in those roles last year when Kruger was hurt. Pfffffffffffft.
Answer: no one presently on the roster or in the system. No one.
So you then have to backfill that role, or “we” really stink defensively, and what have you actually accomplished?
And then there’s the 800 pound, pickle juice swilling Gorilla in the room. Newly minted Calder Trophy winner Panarin—and his new contract next summer. Likely to be north of $5 million per season. And a whole lot of salary cap commitment still on the books.
Even with the best of the above scenarios, you’re still kicking that can down the road to next summer. And the Brandon Saad Drama of last summer should be a stern warning to everyone—you do not want Panarin unsigned at this time next year, with all the usual public statements about how “the two sides are close on a deal.”
So to me, by my limited math skills, the Hawks (if “we” are still serious about contending for the Cup) still have a cap problem, maybe not right now, or even this coming season—especially if Bowman can still somehow capture some lightning (and a passable top 6 winger) in a bottle.
But credit where it’s due—Bowman’s done some business this summer in a somewhat proactive manner.
No should assume, however, he or the Hawks should rest easy.
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»