Heard from a source yesterday that the San Jose Sharks are preparing big money offer sheets for both Antti Niemi and Niklas Hjalmarsson in order to fill the voids left by the retirement of Rob Blake and the anticipated departure of Evgeni Nabokov— and to ding a conference rival.

That said, before anyone rushes off and orders their teal Hjalmarsson "4" sweater, I'm going to paraphrase Mark Twain here: the rumors of the Hawks demise are greatly exaggerated.

Or, in simpler terms, don't show up for a wake before anyone's died.

The fact is, the CBA greatly favors incumbent teams in terms of restricted free agency.

Now, I'm not a cap geek (to borrow another phrase), so I don't know all the ins and outs of the CBA in this area.

I am fairly confident though that the qualifying offer rules remain the same, regardless of the Hawks' cap commitment for 2010-11. They will tender qualifying offers to their RFAs that entitle them to draft pick compensation if the player receives an offer sheet, signs it, and the Hawks fail to match it. (EDITED)

Niemi and Hjalmarsson, I'm also fairly certain, will be qualified at a level requiring at least a first and third round pick in compensation. And remember, a qualifying offer is not a contract, it is a starting point for negotiations that the team must ultimately pay the player at or above.

If the Hawks have to choose between one or the other, I am 95% certain they would choose Hjalmarsson. Niemi is a nice goalie, but he is not Vezina material (yet), and there will be good goalies available this summer, some of whom might be willing to play in Chicago on a one-year deal for a bargain rate.

Another card the Hawks hold is to deal the rights to either player, either before or after qualifying offers are extended. Again, I do not foresee this happening with Hjalmarsson. I suppose Niemi is more of a possibility in this regard.

WHITHER BUBBA:

Rumors started flying fast and furious yesterday. The Hawk whose name got bandied about a bit was Dustin Byfuglien, due mostly to a tweet by Kevin Allen of USA Today that had the big forward in play.

In all likelihood, the Hawks are entertaining offers on a lot of players, as they should be.

Let's assume that Brian Campbell, Cristobal Huet, Brent Sopel, Byfuglien, Kris Versteeg, Pat Sharp, Dave Bolland and possibly even Niemi, Hjalmarsson or Brent Seabrook are all players the Hawks would consider dealing under the right set of circumstances.

But the truth is, from team to team and player to player, you're going to get fairly different offers.

With as much salary cutting as the Hawks need to do, they're likely going to need to make minimum two deals, and possibly multi-player deals. So it is foolish to assume that they have only designated one player or another as chips they want to move. Sure, they likely have a priority of who they'd more like to move versus who they'd least like to. But it all depends on the offers coming back.

So that said, it's very premature to assume the Hawks are moving Byfuglien and not someone else.

It's also premature to assume the Hawks will simply be sending players to the minors or dealing for draft picks. Yes, those things could likely happen. But expect the unexpected. The Hawks are going to try to simultaneously cut salary and add either present talent or future potential the best they can. The final results could be surprising.

READING THE TEA LEAVES:

First of all, I'll be shocked if the Hawks don't make some kind of move before the draft Friday. Bear in mind also that qualifying offers for RFAs are due Monday the 28th.

The Hawks hold three picks in the first two rounds. And the widely held assumption is they will be adding picks (through dealing veterans).

Hold on there, Charlie.

While this might be true, they could also be dealing picks. My draft source tells me there is not a ton of difference between the player that will be selected at #30 (the Hawks' 1st rounder) and #43 (the first of their 2nd round picks). So I suspect that first round pick or high second round pick might be another asset the Hawks could package along with a coveted forward in order to deal away a contract like Cristobal Huet's (for example).

MEATBALLS AND GLOG:

As I blogged yesterday, the Hawks signed three current or former SEL centers last week. With the addition of Jonas Blomgren as their chief European scout and the influence of Scotty Bowman, you can bet there will be a Swedish pipeline to Chicago, fortified by this weekend's draft. I'm predicting two Swedish prospects minimum will be taken by the Hawks.

And, as I said earlier, don't be terribly surprised if the Hawks trade down and stockpile later round picks, where they will go hard and heavy for Swedish and possibly Finn and Czech prospects, relying on superior European scouting to produce better players than many teams get in the earlier rounds (that's the strategy, at least). That was the model pursued with a great deal of success in Detroit for over a decade.

Look for my draft interview with the Wiz in the next day or two.

Thanks for reading,


JJ

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