|
Insanity, The Bubble, And The Ledge |
|
|
|
|
|
Insanity is well defined as: repeating the same action in the same manner and expecting a different result.
Put another way: those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
So even though a minority of Hawk fans are clinging to the belief that a summer of rest, and maturation and matriculation of young players, is all it will take to return the Blackhawks to Cup contention, the rest must hope that the front office and coaching staff can (and will) make some important changes this summer.
Recent history tells us that if the Blackhawks are essentially the same team next year, just swapping out a couple of young Swedish defensemen for a couple of other young Swedish defensemen (the “change” alluded to by GM Stan Bowman in a press conference Wednesday), then it would be insane to expect them to be anything but what they were this year.
Fun to watch most of the time, defensively flawed, great on the power play and 3-on 3, mediocre 5-on-5. A good regular season team, a first round out in the playoffs.
Some might call them a bubble team; some might not.
But one of the teams that finished below them in the Central Division (Nashville) has advanced to the second round. And the other playoff team who finished below Chicago, Minnesota, dominated the Blackhawks in the regular season.
Good news: this is a good team that is not terribly far from being a great team again.
Bad news: even though the Hawks are, meh, two middling players and perhaps a playing style adjustment away—there is much that stands in the way of acquiring the players necessary to adjust the playing style.
Like a salary cap that likely precludes Chicago from being a player in free agency. Like lots of NTCs and NMCs attached to big money deals for core players (who the Hawks will need to get back in the Cup picture).
Last summer, Stan Bowman had a tough offseason. This one may be tougher for the above reasons.
Amidst all the quibbling over what changes should be made, maybe everyone needs to take a deep breath and look at what got the Hawks here.
The fact is, to use a golf analogy, all Stan Bowman has had to do every Spring is sink some putts. The combination of Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Corey Crawford, Marian Hossa (and previously Patrick Sharp), gets him to the green.
Some years, the putts are tougher than others. With the exception of Sharp, the core is still around, and most of it is still in prime hockey playing years.
The other side of that coin is that the core is now very highly-compensated in a league where salary cap growth is not exactly meteoric.
The prospect cupboard is pretty bare.
If Bowman is going to improve this team he is going to have to cut some salary, somehow, and either in those or other moves, acquire a couple of missing complementary pieces. Probably a legitimate second pairing defenseman and a winger. The Hawks need to improve their 5-on-5 play, they need a couple of physical, competitive, mobile players who are NHL ready/NHL experienced.
This may require parting with a complementary piece already on the roster that isn’t, at this point, vital to the team’s on-ice success, or is relatively replaceable.
No NHL team is going to overpay for Viktor Svedberg, Ville Pokka or Mark McNeill.
Which turns the light of speculation to Andrew Shaw, Teuvo Teravainen, perhaps Trevor van Riemsdyk or even Crawford. And you have to lose Bryan Bickell’s boat anchor of a contract.
The team has suggested that the likes of Carl Dahlstrom, Gustav Forsling or Robin Norell can come over from Sweden and fill the holes in the 5-7 slots this fall. If you’re Catholic, better start lighting candles.
Another rumor out there is the Hawks are on the short list for the services of KHL/Czech blueliner Michal Kempny. This is a bit more intriguing. Kempny has some significant pro experience and a size advantage over Forsling and Norell.
But . . . a question was asked on my message board yesterday as to why top European and NCAA prospects aren’t just packing up and heading to Chicago anymore. The answer is clear.
They want to get paid.
While the Hawks struggle with how to pay bonuses to their last big Euro import, Artemi Panarin, the uncomfortable subject of new contracts for Teravainen and van Riemsdyk also looms.
If you’re getting the sense that something may have to give here, folks, you may be on to something.
You can’t have it all. You can’t have a narrow Cup window and huge salary commitments and also the luxury of waiting around to see if a former high pick will ever decide he wants to be a serious NHL player. Or if another young guy you like is ever going to be a good enough skater to really help your second pair.
And in hockey trades, you have to give to get.
Or you can follow the course of the last 12 months, which saw the Hawks go from Cup Champion to about the 5th or 6th best team in their conference. Because of the cap. Because of roster and prospect depletion. Because they became a team that wasn't very good 5-on-5. The problems are still there.
Adapt or die.
All I have for now,
JJ
FOB
(good peeps, good reads)
Chris Block
Al Cimaglia
http://www.thethirdmanin.com
Frank Nova
http://www.hockeenight.com
Greg Boysen
http://www.letsgohawks.net
Puckin’ Hostile Crew
http://www.puckinhostile.com
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»