Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 

Down To The Crossroads

June 2, 2017, 10:00 AM ET [326 Comments]
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT





I wish I had some new news—a hot rumor or two to report.

My usual sources have been pretty quiet, or, in one case, have only provided some broad, directional information to this point. And I don't just "make stuff up."

One thing I have observed—and sort of the narrative underpinning of this blog—in covering Stan Bowman as GM of the Hawks for the last 8 years, he does wargame things out. Generally, he has a plan B, depending on which way things out of his control fall. And it is fairly evident that's how he's approaching this summer.

Expansion and the draft—what other teams do and what Bowman himself can get done vis a vis those events—will dictate much of what he can do the rest of the summer.

This will likely be a summer unlike the last 7. There is real pressure within the Hawk organization—and squarely on Bowman—to accomplish some big things.

At the same time, the popular theories surrounding which way the Hawks will go regarding the draft, expansion, free agency seem rooted in the logic of the last 7 summers—not the different reality of this one.

Let's unpack this. And let's start where any analysis of a pro sports team should always go first: the ticket office, the bottom line, the value of the brand.

The Hawks have been knocked out of the playoffs in the first round the last two years—humiliatingly swept by Nashville this past season. Another Chicago team won a world championship, and stole the spotlight, in that time period.

You can argue that the Hawks also got knocked out in the first rounds in 2011 and 2012—and both their on-ice fortunes and brand perception bounced right back. But that was 5 years ago—the team was much younger then—the salary issues were not quite as severe or pronounced. And the first round beatings were not nearly as bad as the one that occurred just a handful of weeks ago.

The fact is, the Hawks are no longer the darlings of the NHL, much less Chicago. From a brand value perspective, this is indisputable.

That affects revenue: not just lost playoff game ticket sales, but demand for sponsorships, merchandise sales, etc.

The other side of the ledger are expenses. The Hawks are a "cap strapped" team—with big money committed to a handful of veteran players over long term.

If the protestations of Wirtz Corp. bean counters are to be believed, the Hawks never have been a money-making machine.

So it doesn't take a Nobel-winning economist to glean that their business model rests on an expectation of ticket sales from long playoff runs year after year—it rests on tremendous relevance in the NHL and in the Chicago market—not to mention strong demand for corporate sponsorships, ancillary sales, etc.

Some like to think the Hawks cavalierly threw $10.5 million a year a piece at Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, $6.875 million a year at Brent Seabrook, $4.5 million a year at Artem Anisimov and $6 million a year at Artemi Panarin. Loyalty, reward. Payment for services rendered. Right?

The truth is, the Hawks thought it through more than that. Those salaries and terms were committed to based on two expectations: first, that the Hawks would remain highly competitive—an "elite" NHL team, making long playoff runs and all that goes with it for at least a few more years, and that the salary cap would continue to rise over that time.

Neither, however, has happened. Now the Hawks find themselves—not just competitively on the ice, but in terms of their business and revenue models—in a bind.

They have these big money, long-term commitments to some good players, but they have hamstrung their ability to complement those players well enough (as they could in the summer of 2012, after two sub-par years, but before their second Cup) to get back into the Cup conversation.

The problem, and blame, at least in part, lies with fans. Hawk fans were not just spoiled by 3 Stanley Cups in 6 years—but also the success of numerous draft picks, trades, and free agent signings from 2002-2009 that worked. A very, unusually high percentage of them. Hence the 3 Cups.

With that, came the expectation that they would always work. "In Stan (even though "Stan" had next to nothing to do with the 02-09 track record) We Trust."

"Get 'Er Done, Stan."

Ad nauseum.

Always give Bowman full marks for tweaking and re-tooling the lower half of roster twice between 2012 and 2014—finding the right additive pieces to go with the core assembled before he was GM.

But the mistake is in assigning infallibility to Bowman, especially when it comes to the acquisition of younger talent—and the resulting assumption that every Hawk draft pick and prospect is not only better than those of every other team, but better than most NHL veterans in Chicago and elsewhere. And yes, some fans, a lot of fans, seem to have gone there.

Because that leads to the expectation that kids right out of junior hockey (where they've been playing against mostly 16-19 year olds, most of whom will never be good enough to even sniff the NHL), European hockey, and college—can come in to the NHL and be difference makers.

Think that didn't happen? It's happened to varying degrees the last few summers. Sometimes it works (Artemi Panarin), sometimes the player makes some contribution, but not what was hyped (Teuvo Teravainen, Nick Schmaltz, Michal Kempny), sometimes it doesn't at all—at least not right away (Gustav Forsling, Tyler Motte, Viktor Svedberg, Erik Gustafsson).

The expectation on the young player is unrealistic, because it invariably calls for them (sometimes also being asked to play out of position) to immediately fill some important role on an NHL team that is supposed to contend for a Cup.It doesn't work—especially not when you've been drafting at the end of every round for 8 years, and you never get actual value back in salary dump trades.

The truth is, this summer, the Hawks are at a crossroads organizationally.

They seem to have three choices:

1) Making a hard, unexpected and possibly unpopular decision to move a big veteran contract or two this summer—to not just reduce the cap crunch but to add (in return or through bargain free agent moves) NHL-experienced lower half players with size and speed. An on the fly retooling of the roster that requires butchering a sacred cow, or two. And making some smart (and big) value for value NHL trades—something Bowman has largely avoided in past summers.

2) staying the course—and soft-pedaling the reality of where "the course" leads (as it has the last two seasons)—to an at times entertaining and streaky regular season team that can load up in 3-on-3 or rely on Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews in the shootout, but lacks the depth, muscle and pace to get past the first round of the playoffs, where regular time and overtime severely test your 5-on-5 roster, every situation, every line and every pair.

Call this strategy: "Y'know, ship Kruger and TVR off to get under the cap, pick up a couple of draft picks, use them to draft a Swedish defenseman and a 5'4" kid out of the USHL."

Meanwhile, the lower half of the roster gets younger and smaller, the penalty kill continues to slide into disaster, the Hawks become even more predictably a slower, perimeter team in the offensive zone, etc.

3) A complete (and much earlier than planned) blow up and rebuild. Buy someone out, fire sale someone else. Go in the tank, go really young.

I believe, based on what I've heard recently and my belief that the Hawks are smart businesspeople first, that they will attempt (are attempting as we speak) course #1, and failing that, they will revert to #2.

#3 is exceedingly unlikely, but unless you want to watch the Hawks become the Detroit Red Wings of the last few years, you might just say "bite the bullet and start over now." But, it doesn't matter because it likely isn't happening (not now anyway).

So as the summer unfolds, especially the latter half of this month, watch what Bowman does or doesn't do.

I believe there is something to the Kruger and TVR to Las Vegas rumor reported elsewhere. It just makes a lot of sense, and I will add to it that George McPhee approached Bowman about Kruger back in 2012. He liked the player then at least.

But look at how that unfolds for clues as to the larger strategy for the summer. Does Bowman collect a couple of 2nd and 3rd rounds picks—or does he poach the Vegas roster for NHL experience (say a backup goalie or a useful lower line player) after expansion takes place.

Does Bowman move, as has been rumored, an Artem Anisimov to an East Coast team? What does he get back in a move like that? Picks, prospects, or say, the speed left wing the team has been (quietly, but persistently for two years now) looking for to plant next to Toews.

My opinion?

Dumping salaries for prospects and picks is easy. Bowman has done it over and over again since this time in 2010. But there are two problems this summer with this strategy: one is the Hawks as a team no longer have the inertia of a young, talented and improving core to count on. In 2010 and 2011, they could sell off a Dustin Byfuglien or a Brian Campbell for futures and still be a very good team the following year.

Secondarily, fans keep going to kick this football and fate keeps pulling it away. Those picks and prospects have been (or turned into): Kent Simpson, Justin Holl, Ludvig Rensfedlt, Ivan Vishnevskiy, Chris DiDomenico, Jeff Taffe, Rostislav Olesz, Anders Nilsson, Ville Pokka, Trevor Daley (who turned into Rob Scuderi and an empty cap hit), etc.

Getting players with NMC or limited NTCs to waive and doing value for value NHL trades is, on the other hand, hard. Bowman hasn't really had to do it. But it can be done.

If you want the Hawks to be playing at this time next year, likely, the harder road is the one that must be chosen. because I think we've seen ample evidence the last two years where the easier road leads.

But I also think Bowman is going to try very hard to go big, make some bold moves and get the Hawks roster in a better place by September, because that's what his boss expects.

So make some popcorn.



JJ
Join the Discussion: » 326 Comments » Post New Comment
More from John Jaeckel
» Thanks and Farewell
» Where do we go from here?
» Preds at Hawks Breakdown
» "All Teams Have Flaws"
» The Games You Should Win