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A Deeper Look At The WCF Matchup |
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I had to write this blog. The message boards here and elsewhere are ablaze with smack talk from Hawk and Duck fans.
So, who really has the advantage in this series?
Statistically, there is no prior metric equal to the actual games in the series in terms of who’s better. In other words, it’s why they play the games.
But there’s already been some robust debate around whether the Ducks’ superior playoff numbers are more important, or if the Blackhawks’ superior overall regular season numbers are more important.
Or, are the head-to-head records and statistics in the regular season even more important?
Generally speaking, you have to place greater weight on regular season records and head-to-head matchups.
Why? Because the playoffs are such a small sample size (in this case 9-10 games against two teams each) and have a lot to do with the quality of opposition and the individual matchups each team has faced.
The regular season is 82 games, against the entire league—for both teams. The sample is larger and more even.
Head-to-head, while a tiny sample (just three games) in this case, can shed a lot of light on individual and line/pairing matchups—and if a particular player has been very good or bad throughout the season series, it might shed some light on how they will perform against similar matchups in the playoffs.
For example, prior to the Minnesota series in Round 2, I dug into that season series and saw that while the outcomes had been pretty even as far as scores and wins and losses, one particular player had dominated the scoring in the series (8 points in 4 games): Patrick Kane. I felt Minnesota, based on that and other factors, would have trouble stopping Kane in Round 2.
And, well, that just happened.
The playoff stats can show you trends—players or one team is or has been hot or particularly strong in one area of their game. But again quality of opposition, and those matchups in those series come into play.
No doubt, you have to elevate your perception (in particular) of the Duck power play and the performance of Fredrik Andersen based on the 9 playoff games. However, it is really silly to pronounce that it trumps a same-year sample size nine times larger.
Some might argue, “well Chicago is hurting on D and they weren’t in the regular season.”
Mmmm, not really.
The Blackhawk defense that finished 3rd in the league in GAA and 10th on the penalty kill was the same, essentially, as the one that will take the ice for Game 1 in Anaheim, with one exception. Basically: Kimmo Timonen replaces Michal Rozsival as the #5 defenseman. So we’re not talking Orr and Potvin here. And David Rundblad played much of the season for the Hawks including against the Ducks.
And both teams added significant pieces at or just before the deadline.
So all that said, here are the season numbers:
GOALS FOR PER GAME:
Anaheim, 11th, 2.78
Chicago, 17th, 2.68
GOALS AGAINST PER GAME:
Anaheim, 20th, 2.70
Chicago, 2nd, 2.27
POWER PLAY:
Anaheim, 28th, 15.7%
Chicago, 20h, 17.6%
PENALTY KILL:
Anaheim, 15th, 81.5%
Chicago, 10th, 83.9%
GIVEAWAYS:
Anaheim, 10th, 745
Chicago, 18th, 634
TAKEAWAYS:
Anaheim, 23rd, 479
Chicago, 11th, 593
FACEOFFS:
Anaheim, 9th, 51.6%
Chicago, 5th, 52.0%
SHOTS ON GOAL PER GAME:
Anaheim, 15h, 30.0
Chicago, 1st, 33.9
HITS:
Anaheim, 10th, 2301
Chicago, 29th, 1317
Some interesting things can be unpacked here.
First, both teams can score, but one seems to defend and stop goals a lot better: Chicago.
Ironically, most casual observers would think Chicago is the more potent offensive team and vulnerable defensively. In truth, for all their firepower, the Blackhawks, in essence, are a defense-first club.
Second, the latter five statistical metrics above tell a very important story.
The Blackhawks are clearly a stronger puck possession club. Yes, the Ducks hit more than the Hawks do—in part because they chase the puck more.
Interestingly, the Blackhawks have been to 4 Conference Finals in the last 6 years. They’ve gone 2-2 in those series. The two teams that beat them were arguably equal or better puck possession teams, Detroit in 2009 and the Kings in 2014.
This is not good news for the Ducks. And if you’re predicting a Duck series win or calling this too close to call, you need to consider the above.
Looking at the head-to-head matchup, the teams played three times:
A 1-0 Duck win in Chicago
A 4-1 Hawk win in Anaheim
And another 4-1 Hawk win at Honda Center
Scott Darling played in the lone Hawk loss. Corey Crawford was stellar in the two Hawk wins, 2-0, 1.00 GAA and a save percentage over .950. Fredrik Andersen, overall had poor numbers in the series, with a save% well below .900.
OK, those were games played November-January. That’s a fair point.
But the vast majority of the players remain the same—and that’s telling.
Because in the two Chicago victories, 10 points were scored by their second line, featuring the series’ leading goal scorer: Patrick Kane, who had four tallies.
Jonathan Toews had a goal. Anaheim got a goal from a defenseman, and two from their third line. Their top line did not score.
Chicago outshot Anaheim in the three games 109-71, and by an average of 36-24.
If the trend I highlighted from the Minnesota season series carries over in the playoffs as it did in Round 2, this, also, is very bad news for the Ducks. Yes, the games were a few months ago. The rosters and playing styles are still largely the same however.
And that, despite all the bloviation from the usual channels, is what makes this series fairly easy to predict: the matchups are tough for the Ducks.
The top two lines for both teams are fun to analyze and predict. Who matches up with who? And who do the matchups favor?
Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf are great players. And they’re even better together. So that’s how they play. And if they don’t score against a team like the Blackhawks, the Ducks will probably struggle. If, at the same time, Toews’ line gets just a goal every three games, but Kane’s line gets 6 in that timeframe, Chicago can still win.
Just as it was versus Minnesota in Round 2, in the season series versus Anaheim, Kane’s production was almost entirely versus the Ducks’ top two lines.
In essence, the Hawks can load up—likely with Toews’ line and/or Marcus Kruger’s line, backed by Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook—versus Getzlaf, Perry and Maroon.
The Ducks have to pick their poison. “Do we load up to stop Toews, Marian Hossa and Brandon Saad, arguably the one line in the NHL that rivals our own top line, or do we try to stop Kane?”
In the season series, the Ducks didn’t figure that out.
But it gets worse for Anaheim.
Some might think they have an advantage over the Hawks on the lower lines. But, at least in terms of scoring, there’s also a huge advantage for Chicago.
Among the Ducks’ bottom 6 forwards, one, Andrew Cogliano, has scored more than 20 goals in one season. For Chicago, Patrick Sharp has seven times, Antoine Vermette four times, Andrew Shaw once, and Teuvo Teravainen likely will multiple times.
The point is, over the course of a series and hundreds of shifts, there are huge matchup advantages for Joel Quenneville, and huge headaches for Bruce Boudreau.
Hey, much can and will happen that’s hard to predict in a playoff series. But the numbers, rosters and playing styles, not to mention experience and playoff skins on the wall, point to a Chicago series win in 6 games.
All for now,
JJ
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