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The Parayko Problem

June 26, 2017, 3:15 PM ET [58 Comments]
Jason Millen
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With the draft completed, General Manager Doug Armstrong should be focused on locking up his restricted free agents and gearing up for the start of unrestricted free agency in a week or so.

In looking at the roster, Colton Paryako, Petteri Lindbohm, Magnus Paajarvi, Nail Yakupov, Wade Megan and newly acquired Oskar Sundqvist are all restricted free agents as are Jordan Binnington and Jordan Caron. Kenny Agostino, Scottie Upshall and to a lesser extent Chris Butler are the Blues unrestricted free agents of note.

The most expensive and significant signing will be Parayko. The Blues likely are trying to use Nikita Zaitsev’s recently signed contract as a baseline for Parayko. Zaitsev is a year and a half older and had the same number of goals and one more assist than Parayko last year, his first in the NHL. Zaitsev put up similar numbers to Parayko the year before in the KHL where he played less than two thirds as many games and points are generally harder to obtain. The comparison isn’t that far out of line in my humble opinion. Zaitsev signed a seven year deal with a modified no trade clause in the last five years and an AAV of $4.5 million.

The Blues are also likely using Shayne Gostisbehere’s recently signed deal as another comparable. Two years ago, Gostisbehere and Parayko were the super rookie defensemen in the league with Gostisbehere almost doubling Paraykos goal total when he netted 17 goals. Like Parayko, Gostisbehere’s point total regressed in 2016-17 but he still exceeded that of Parayko while playing a few games less. Gostisbehere signed a six year contract with an AAV of $4.5 million.

Rasmus Ristolainen also might be used as a benchmark. Ristolainen is almost a year and a half younger than Parayko and signed a six year contract with a $5.4 million AAV. Ristolainen gave up two years of his unrestricted free agent years to take that deal. Ristolainen also has put up better numbers across the board than Parayko over the last two seasons including more goals, more assists and more minutes. If I am the Blues, this contract seems to be the ceiling of my range for Parayko.

Given these three deals, I bet Armstrong felt pretty confident he could get a deal done for somewhere around $5 million per season.

Of course Parayko’s agent will be comparing him to Hampus Lindholm who signed a six year contract with an AAV of $5.206 million. Lindholm is a little more than a year younger than Parayko and hasn’t put up as many points as Parayko the last two years while playing similar total minutes. In the end, I’m going to guess the deal will be around $26 million for 5 years.

The problem wit these contract values is that a team can offer sheet him at $5.88 million a season and only risk giving up a 1st and a 3rd round pick. Teams would easily trade a 1st and a 3rd for Parayko. As a result, I could easily see it going to at least $27 million over 5 years.

Once you sign Parayko and consider a 7th defenseman, you will have about $6.5 million left for five forward roster spots but more on the roster in the coming days. The moral of the short story is that Blues fans shouldn’t expect an impact UFA forward to be signed.

In a blast from the past, I posted this about Parayko when responding to Carcus who said he looked NHL ready back in July 2015 – “Parayko has a NHL ready body (6ft5, probably 220) and likely older than most. He put up very respectable numbers in limited games in Chicago last year.”

In another nostalgia run from July 2015, I made the comment “Lehtera is a curious case....I sure hope he doesn't go the way of Brunnstrom….Lehtera is a much more complete player and a better player overall. I just hope we continue to see positive adjustments rather than last year being his ceiling.” Too bad it appeared to be his ceiling and he got moved out.

It’s a great day for hockey.

Fellow Hockeybuzz blogger Minnesota Wild's Dan Wallace agreed to a 1st round, friendly charity wager. Since the Blues won, Dan will be making a donation to Dream Factory St. Louis (http://dreamfactoryincstl.org/). Dream Factory grants dreams to critically and chronically ill children from the ages of three to eighteen. They have one of the highest program expenditure ratios I have ever seen, an amazing 97% is used for actual program services. Usually, more than 3% is used for administrative and fundraising efforts but not at Dream Factory.

With the Predators win, fellow Hockeybuzz blogger Nashville Predator's Paul McCann won our bet and I made a donation to Best Buddies of Tennessee (https://bestbuddies.org/find-programs/tennessee/). Best Buddies works to establish a global volunteer movement that creates opportunities for one-to-one friendships, integrated employment and leadership development for people with intellectual and development capabilities.
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