**Update**
In what I hope becomes a hockeybuzz tradition,
Bill Meltzer and I placed a wager on the series. Don't call the cops as everyone wins with our wager. If the Blues win, Bill has agreed to make a donation to
Safe Connections (@SafeConnections on twitter) whose mission is to reduce the impact and incident of relationship violence and sexual assault through education, crisis intervention, and counseling services. If the Stars win, I will donate to
Snider Hockey ( @SniderHockey on twitter) whose mission is to build lives and unite communities, helping educate young people to succeed in the game of life.
Tonight the Blues start the second round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs when they take on the Dallas Stars at the American Airlines Center at 7pm CST. The Stars dispatched the Minnesota Wild in 6 games while the Blues went the distance with the Chicago Blackhawks. During the regular season, the Blues went 4-1 against the Stars, winning two of the games in OT and one in a shootout with Jake Allen posting 3 of the wins and David Backes with two game winning goals.
While Jake Allen did have a better record against the Stars, Brian Elliott had a better GAA (1.49 vs 1.93) and a better save percentage (94.5% vs 93.2%). Kevin Shattenkirk was the leading scorer against the Stars both in points and goals. Jaden Schwartz only played in two of the games but had a goal and two assists in those games.
For the Stars, Jamie Benn tied Shattenkirk in points in the five games but scored one less goal. Much like Schwartz, Kris Russell made the most of his limited play, getting two assists in his only game with the Stars against the Blues. Stephen Johns on the other hand was a -3 in the only game he played against the Blues. Johnny Oduya also struggled going pointless and a team worst -4 in the five games. In net, Kari Lehtonen outshined Antti Niemi, besting him in GAA (0.99 to 3.22) and save percentage (95.5% to 89.9%). Historically, Lehtonen has significantly better numbers against the Blues. It will be interesting to see if Lindy Ruff truly platoons the goalies or Lehtonen becomes the number one goalie for the series.
Blues expected lines
Schwartz –Lehtera – Tarasenko
Fabbri - Stastny -Brouwer
Berglund – Steen – Backes
Upshall – Brodziak – Ott
Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo
Edmundson - Shattenkirk
Gunnarsson - Parayko
Elliott
Statistical Comparisons
In beginning to look at a preview of the series, I put together the following chart. In the chart, PO=playoff, PO Opp = 1st round playoff opponent, and Opp means against the Stars or Blues.
I noticed a number of interesting things from the chart. For example, the Blues second period woes were memorialized showing an -8 goal differential while I learned the Stars were much better early in games, showing a -2 goal differential in the 3rd and OT. The Blues improved in the first round in both shooting and save percentage while the Stars declined in the first round in both shooting and save percentage. The Blues declined in goals against average as you would expect when you face the NHL’s 6th best offense. The Stars surprisingly declined as well even though they were playing only the 18th best offense, an offense that hurt further by the absence of their leading scorer.
In digging a little further, notice that the Stars power play declined a little in the first round even though they were facing a team that was ranked 27th in penalty killing during the regular season. Similarly, their penalty killing declined substantially even though they faced a team with average power play efficiency, hurt more by the absence of their leading scorer. The Blues power play improved significantly in the playoffs as expected when facing a team ranked 22nd in penalty killing. Their penalty kills declined even more than the Stars in the first round but they were facing the team that ranked 2nd in power play efficiency.
In looking at the regular season matchup, the Blues held the Stars to 60% of their season scoring average while scoring at 88% of their average. This would likely explain the Blues 4-1 record.
Jammer's 5 Keys to Winning the Series
1. Timely goaltending. The Blues don't necessarily need perfect goaltending but the Blues goaltending will need to be better than the Stars tandem and it has to be timely. As the first series showed, this team appears to be more resilient than years past but the goaltending cannot give up weak goals at inopportune times. It will also be important to have timely saves as momentum changers as I expect the Blues to get plenty of chances on the counterattack.
2. Contain the Stars big 4. The Blues need to focus on containing Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza, Patrick Sharp, and Tyler Seguin once he returns to the lineup. Benn and Spezza both are averaging at least a point and a half per game and each already have 4 goals. The Blues limited Kane, Panarin, Toews and Hossa to 6 goals combined in 7 games. If the Blues can limit the Stars big 4 to less than 1.2 goals combined per game, the Blues will likely enjoy success.
3. Special Teams. The Stars had 3 more power play opportunities than penalty kills in the first round while the Blues had one more penalty kill. Given the strong Dallas power play, the Blues need to limit their penalties, especially offensive zone and bench minor types. To the extent that they are short handed in games, they need to see a rebound in their penalty killing efficiency to at least around 80%. While it would be nice to see the Blues maintain a power play efficiency of over 25%, I think the need is to keep it above 20%.
4. Injuries. It's hard to know how healthy a team is this time of year. When will Tyler Seguin be back? Will he be effective when he does come back? Kris Russell missed a game in round one due to illness. Was it the flu or was it a nagging injury? The Blues appear to be the healthier team and look to have a full lineup. They will need their best players to perform regardless of how nicked up they are or are not.
5. Rookies. The Blues will need continued strong play from rookies Colton Parayko, Robby Fabbri, and Joel Edmundson. They also will need continued patience from Hitchcock through in game mistakes and in lineup decisions. The level of play they displayed in the first round was impressive and needs to continue.
It’s a great day for hockey.
St Louis Blues Blogger • 
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