**Update**
In what I hope is becoming a hockeybuzz tradition,
Steve Palumbo and I placed a wager on the series. If the Blues win, Steve has agreed to make a donation to
Covenant House Missouri (@covenanthousemo on twitter) whose mission is to empower youth who are disconnected to design their own path from homelessness to opportunity. If the Sharks win, I will donate to the
Hydrocephalus Association (@HydroAssoc on twitter) whose mission is to connect individuals to larger communities that can provide support and understanding, to educate national and state policymakers, the medical community, and the general population, and to advance treatment and eventually find a cure for Hydrocephalus. Thanks to my twitter typo, if the Blues win, I'll be donating to Safe Connections (@SafeConnections on twitter).
Tonight the Blues start the Western Conference Finals of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs when they take on the San Jose Sharks at the Scottrade Center at 7pm CST. The Sharks have dispatched the Nashville Predators in 7 games and the Los Angeles Kings in 5 games while it took the Blues 7 games to eliminate the Stars and Blackhawks.
The Sharks home and road record has been a bit of a role reversal this playoff season. While the Sharks were 23rd in the NHL at home this season, they are 5-1 in the playoffs. Maybe more surprising, while they were 1st on the road in the regular season, they are only 3-3 in the playoffs. The Blues have more closely followed their regular season script, going 5-2 on the road to match their 3rd best regular season record and 3-5 at home, more aligning with their 11th best regular season record. Will the strong Blues road game bring the Sharks home record more to their regular season norm? Interestingly, the Sharks were 0-3 in round 2 in one goal games.
During the regular season, the Blues went 1-2 against the Sharks with the away team winning every game. The Blues have yet to face the Sharks with a full lineup as Alexander Steen missed two of the games, Jaden Schwartz missed one and Alex Pietrangelo missed the only lopsided game, a Blues loss. Given that Schwartz, Steen and Pietroangelo are the top 3 point producers per game against the Sharks, you shouldn’t discount the impact of their absence in those three games.
For the Sharks, Logan Couture and Brent Burns lead all forwards and defensemen in points and points per game, averaging 1.42 and 1.25, respectively. Joe Pavelski isn’t far behind at 1.08. Pavelski is tied with David Backes for the NHL lead in playoff game winning goals (3) and Couture is only one behind. In the regular season, Joe Thornton has averaged 1.13 points per game against the Blues in his career with Thomas Hertl second on the team at 0.78 points per game. In the playoffs, Thornton and Hertl are averaging 0.92 and 0.42, respectively.
For the Blues, Robby Fabbri and Vladimir Tarasenko lead the way with 13 playoff points. David Backes is only one point behind them while Jaden Schwartz is only two behind.
All three goalies have posted strong numbers against the opposition, all above 91% in save percentage and all below 2.60 in goals against average. Brian Elliott and Martin Jones will start Game 1 barring a warm-up injury. Note that Jake Allen took a shot off the mask in practice today and skated off in frustration but is reportedly ok.
Blues expected Game 1 lines
Schwartz –Lehtera – Tarasenko
Fabbri - Stastny -Brouwer
Berglund – Steen – Backes
Upshall – Brodziak – Ott
Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo
Edmundson - Shattenkirk
Gunnarsson - Parayko
Elliott
Statistical Comparisons
In beginning to look at a preview of the series, I put together the following chart. In the chart, PO=playoff, PO Opp = Round 1 and 2 round playoff opponents, and H2H means against the Sharks or Blues.
I noticed a few things that I thought were particularly interesting. Both teams have increased their shooting percentages by around 2% and their save percentages by about 1%. Both teams have been good in the first and third periods while not as good in the second period. Long chance impact?
Both teams have raised their scoring about a half a goal per game while keeping their goals against average about the same with the Sharks showing a slight improvement which would be expected since the Blues have faced much better scoring teams in the first two rounds (4th in the NHL average vs. 14th). Both teams have increased their power play conversion significantly, though perhaps this would due to facing lower than average penalty killing playoff teams (16th average for both). The Sharks have shown a slight improvement in their penalty killing while the Blues have shown a slight regression but the Blues have faced two of the best power play units in the league this postseason with a 3rd average ranking. Also, the Blues were very strong on the penalty kill in the last round, upping their overall percentage over 11%. These comparisons give some hints as to the keys for the series.
Jammer's 5 Keys to Winning the Series
1.
Goaltending - This will be both goalies first taste of a Conference Final. For Jones, this playoffs is his first real playoff experience at all. In looking at both series, the Sharks and Jones have been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde when it comes to one goal games. In the first round, Jones was 3-1 but in the second round he was 0-3. Given that I expect the games to be tighter, is this a trend to watch? OF course Elliott was only 1-3 in the second round in one goal games. Both goalies have not felt this much pressure in their careers.
2.
Contain the Sharks big 4 - The Blues need to focus on containing Couture, Pavelski, Thornton and Burns. The Blues limited Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza, and Patrick Sharp to 3 goals and 8 assists in 21 man games, well off their first round averages. In the first round, the Blues limited Kane, Panarin, Toews and Hossa to 6 goals combined in 7 games. The Sharks big 4 are averaging almost 2 goals per game in the playoffs, the Blues need to keep this to 1.25 goals per game to likely enjoy success.
3.
Special Teams - Much like the Stars, the Sharks have a very strong power play with the highest efficiency of any team still playing and 2nd to only the Blackhawks. Of course, the Blues are right behind them in 3rd. Will there be a lot of calls? If so, who will capitalize on them? If there are only a few calls, it becomes even more important to convert on them. To the extent that they are short handed in games, the Blues need to continue their trend and kill at a rate of 82.5%. While it would be nice to see the Blues maintain a power play efficiency of over 27%, I think they need to keep it above 20%.
4.
The Defensive Battle - The Sharks have two of the top 6 defensemen in playoff scoring. The Blues have 3 in the top 17 while the Sharks 3rd defenseman isn’t seen until 28th. Can the Blues’ defensemen outscore the Sharks’ counterparts? So far the Sharks have 4 goals (all Burns) and 25 assists in 12 games. The Blues have 6 goals (4 players) and 24 assists in 14 games.
5.
Rookies - The Blues will need continued strong play from rookies Colton Parayko, Robby Fabbri, and Joel Edmundson. They also will need continued patience from Hitchcock through in game mistakes and in lineup decisions. The level of play they displayed in the first two rounds was impressive and needs to continue if the Blues are going to win the series.
NHL Champions for Charity
In what I hope becomes a hockeybuzz tradition, Bill Meltzer and I placed a wager on the series. As a result of the Blues win, Bill will be making a donation to Safe Connections (@SafeConnections on twitter) whose mission is to reduce the impact and incident of relationship violence and sexual assault through education, crisis intervention, and counseling services. Even though I won the bet, I pledge to make a donation to Snider Hockey ( @SniderHockey on twitter) should the Blues make the Stanley Cup Finals. Snider Hockey’s mission is to build lives and unite communities, helping educate young people to succeed in the game of life.
I hope that NHL Champions for Charity will get players and fans to pledge donations for each win their team makes in the NHL playoffs. For the players, it would be great if they would agree to donate a small percentage of their playoff bonuses to charity while fans could donate an amount per win, perhaps both upping it if their team won the Stanley Cup. As a simple example, a player could pledge 0.25% per win with a bonus 1% if they win the Cup, bringing their total to 5%.
It’s a great day for hockey.
St Louis Blues Blogger • 
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