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Blues vs Predators Series preview, prediction and other playoff notes

April 26, 2017, 9:31 AM ET [76 Comments]
Jason Millen
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As many of you know, the Blues will be starting their 2nd round series against the Nahsville Predators tonight. You can find the full series schedule here. I haven’t been posting many blogs on here lately because I have been using my limited free time to analyze some data. I’ll use this blog to share some of what I learned both about the Blues and Predators and the playoffs so far in general.

Statistical Categories
Before the playoffs started, I analyzed 17 different categories for each playoff team. This included things like goals per game, shots per game, special teams, penalty minutes, etc. Except for Ottawa, any team that was better in 10 or more of the 17 categories won. Yes, this includes Nashville who was better than Chicago in 10 of the 17. Two of the teams with 8 category wins won and Ottawa won even though they only had 3 category wins (combined shooting and save percentage, standings, and power play opportunities). The Blues have 12 category wins including combined shooting and save percentage and standings. Advantage – Blues.

Winning and momentum
I also analyzed the winning and point percentages of teams from February 1st and March 1st until the end of the regular season, both in total and only against playoff teams. The team with the better percentages won 6 of the 8 first round series with only Nashville and the Rangers bucking that trend. The Blues were tangibly better than the Predators in all of these percentages. Advantage – Blues.

Staying out of Danger
Another area I wanted to look into was goalie performance and quality of shots against so I used Corsica Hockey to pull data on goalies from February 1st until the end of the season. The results surprised me. During the first round, teams that gave up more high and mid danger shots during the regular season won 6 of the 8 series with only Washington and Nashville being the only teams that won who had lower average dangerous shots against. The Blues have lower average dangerous shot attempts but by only one shot per game. Advantage – push or maybe the Predators just slightly.

Goalie Performance
Both goalies had extremely strong performances in the 1st round. Pekka Rinne had the highest high danger save percentage of any starting goalie at 90%, well above his 80% regular season, post-February 1st average. Jake Allen’s was also very strong at 85.7% but less of an anomaly as his post-February 1st regular season average was 84.6%. Rinne also significantly improved his mid danger save percentage from 92.2% to 97.7% while Allen improved his from 92.8% to 96.1%. When you look at mid and high danger combined, Rinne jumped from 87% to 95% while Allen only increased from 90% to 92%.
For all of the chatter I have been seeing about Allen not being able to sustain his level of play, it seems very odd to me that there hasn’t been more chatter questioning whether Rinne will be able to sustain his recent level of play. Isn’t Rinne more likely to regress to his recent normal given that he has been playing further above it?

Allen was better in the regular season since February 1st. Rinne was better in the 1st round of the playoffs though he faced about 40% fewer high danger chances. Advantage - Push

Prediction
In my opinion, this series is going to be very close and it likely will come down to which goalie plays better and which quartet plays better. For the Predators, I see that as Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson, Roman Josi, and PK Subban with the key player being Arvidsson who I think presents some matchup problems for the Blues. On the Blues side, the quartet I see as Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz, Colton Parayko, and Alex Pietrangelo. On the goalie side, this isn’t just raw save numbers but the timing of saves. I think the Blues experience and resolve will put them over the top in seven games. If the Predators win, I think it happens in six games.

Projected Blues lineup
Schwartz – Stastny – Tarasenko
Steen – Berglund - Perron
Sobotka – Lehtera - Paajarvi
Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves
Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo
Edmundson - Parayko
Gunnarsson - Bortuzzo
Allen

Second round other series preview
- Washington vs Pittsburgh – I really like the Penguins and how they have overcome so much adversity so far (no Letang, Murray surprise injury, etc) but everything seems to point to the Capitals including better records since 2/1 and 3/1, much better records against playoff teams in the same periods, winning 11 of the 17 regular season categories that I use to compare teams, etc. I’ll be rooting for the Pens but think the Capitals win in 5 or 7.
- Ottawa vs Rangers – The Rangers give up a lot of high quality chances, more than 2x as many per game as the Senators in round 1. Henrik Lundqvist had a ridiculous 88% high danger save percentage in the 1st round that will be hard to sustain. Sure he is top 5 in that category but his average for the year was 83%. The Rangers also won 11 of the 17 categories but two of those were almost ties and the more important categories were very close. It just feels like Craig Anderson’s year and somehow the Senators will pull it off it seven games though this might be wishful thinking.
- Anaheim vs Edmonton – It’s hard to bet against the Ducks given their run since early March but I think the Oilers have the best chance against them of any Western conference team. The Oilers took 10 of the categories I look at though a number of those were very, very close. The Ducks were the best team since February 1st and March 1st against playoff teams. Both teams were poor performing in round 1 when it comes to giving up high danger chances, being in the bottom half. I think this series comes down to experience and goaltending. While close, I’ll take the Ducks in seven.

First round review
- The teams that gave up the 10th, 12th, 13th, 14th and 15th most high danger shots per game won their series.
- The teams that gave up the 12th, 13th, 14th and 15th most combined high and mid danger shots per game won their series.
- Simple winning percentages and point percentages were more predictive than statistical models in the 1st round. The teams with better percentages from 2/1 on and 3/1 against playoff teams won 6 of the 8 series.
- The two teams that won their series with lower percentages still had percentages that exceeded 50%, meaning they were better than the playoff teams they faced during that time, just not as good as the playoff team they just beat. Also, the difference between the two teams that won with lower percentages was smaller than the others.

It’s a great day for hockey.

Fellow Hockeybuzz blogger Minnesota Wild's Dan Wallace agreed to a 1st round, friendly charity wager. Since the Blues won, Dan will be making a donation to Dream Factory St. Louis (http://dreamfactoryincstl.org/). Dream Factory grants dreams to critically and chronically ill children from the ages of three to eighteen. They have one of the highest program expenditure ratios I have ever seen, an amazing 97% is used for actual program services. Usually, more than 3% is used for administrative and fundraising efforts but not at Dream Factory.

Fellow Hockeybuzz blogger Nashville Predator's Paul McCann has agreed to continue to pay it forward with me with a bet on this series with the Predators. Paul has chosen Best Buddies of Tennessee (https://bestbuddies.org/find-programs/tennessee/) as his charity. Best Buddies works to establish a global volunteer movement that creates opportunities for one-to-one friendships, integrated employment and leadership development for people with intellectual and development capabilities.
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