Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 

Blues vs Lightning 12/1/16 gameday thread and 9 nhl nuggets

December 1, 2016, 2:42 PM ET [17 Comments]
Jason Millen
St Louis Blues Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT


If you don’t believe the Blues like home cooking, take a look at November where they went 1-5 on the road and 7-0-1 at home. In their last 10 home games, the Blues are 9-0-1. They hope to keep this trend going tonight when they take on the Tampa Bay Lightning at the Scottrade at 7pm.

One trend the Blues are looking to end is the two game trend of giving up game tying goals in the waning minutes of the game. The Wild and the Stars both recently escaped with what had to feel like a bonus point after scoring with less than 2 minutes left before losing to the Blues in extra time. The only other instance I recall of this happening this season was the October Canucks game, so I don’t think it is fair to say this is a season wide trend yet.

The Lightning have been streaky lately, perhaps due to a tough stretch in their schedule. Tonight will be their 8th road game in their last 10 games. They started the stretch with 4 road wins though now have lost 3 consecutive road games and their last 3 games overall and 4 of their last 5 games. Even with this rough patch, the Lightning sit in 3rd place in the Atlantic division, 2 points behind the Senators.

The Lightning are 7th in the league in scoring and 3rd in power play efficiency. They are still without Steven Stamkos who was averaging more than a point per game but still have one of the best players in the game, Nikita Kucherov. Kucherov has 26 points in 23 games so far this season. They also have one of the best defensemen in the league, Victor Hedman, who has 17 points in 24 games while playing more than 40% of each game.

Local fans will likely be disappointed tonight as they won’t get to see St. Louisan Ben Bishop between the pipes for the Lightning unless they can chase Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasilevskiy is doing his best to wrestle the starting job from Bishop and has posted a 94% save percentage and a 1.89 goals against average though he did give up 5 goals to the Blue Jackets in his last start. For comparison, Bishop’s save percentage is 90.2% well off his career average of 91.9%.

For the Blues, David Perron extended his point streak on Monday to 8 games, with 3 goals and 8 assists in that stretch. Jaden Schwartz’s also extended his streak to 7 games and points in 10 of his last 11 games, tallying 7 goals and 5 assists in the 11 games. Colton Parayko has a four game point streak with 5 assists in those games. Jake Allen pushed his winning streak to 6 games in a row but his save percentage suffered, stopping less than 86% of the shots Monday.

Alexander Steen is expected back in the lineup tonight and thank goodness the coaching staff isn’t messing with the hottest line in hockey. Joel Edmundson is still out. Expect the lines to look like this at the start of the action:
Schwartz – Stastny – Perron
Fabbri - Steen - Tarasenko
Berglund – Lehtera - Jaskin
Upshall - Brodziak - Reaves
Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo
Gunnarsson – Shattenkirk
Bortuzzo - Parayko
Allen

Jammer’s 9 NHL Nuggets
1) The Rangers have a +29 goal differential. Any guess on who is 2nd best? The Blue Jackets are at +19 yet they would only be a wild card team if the season ended this morning.
2) The Oilers continue to slide in the standings, now down to 3rd in their division after going 3-6-1 in their last 10.
3) No team has currently won more than 2 games in a row.
4) The Coyotes are giving up a league highest 34.4 shots per game and are worst in SAT% (regular and close), and USAT% (regular and close). Obviously Chayka hasn’t had time to fully retool the roster but I found it ironic that a team run by an analytics guy was last in those categories.
5) The Blues record is impressive when you consider they are 3rd worst in Shooting Plus Save Percentage.
6) Of course the Blues are 2nd in USAT% close and SAT% close which may help explain their record.
7) The only forward in average time on ice in the top 50 is Patrick Kane – 49th at 22:14.
8) Last year 3 players averaged over 28 minutes of ice time per game. This year Dustin Byfuglien is the closest at 27:48.
9) Best sharpshooter in the league may go to Kevin Hayes so far at 27.8% shooting percentage with 10 goals. Crosby is at 25% with 15 goals though.

Blues fans may find it ironic to see Ryan Miller pop up in Ek’s top 5 rentals. All I can say is buyer beware. Miller is a top 25% cap hit with bottom 25% numbers. Even before the Canucks signed him to his $6 milion, N-MTC deal, the data suggested he was a middle of the road starter. Look at the 3 year averages for goalies with at least 90 games before his contract and you will see that he was 26th in GAA, 17th in save % and 2nd in most goals against. His play with the Blues at the end of his contract year didn’t exactly inspire confidence in him and seemed to further illustrate continued decline. This year and last year he is in the bottom quarter of the league in GAA and Save % (again with at minimum games - 10 this year, 30 last). Since the Canucks signed him, he is 27th in save % and 28th in GAA among goalies with 75 games or more. I liked Miller personally when he was in St. Louis and how he explained certain things about goaltending but his play wasn’t good enough. I think the data has been fairly strong for a number of years that his play is trailing off and that he isn’t a big difference making #1 goalie anymore. Sure you could do worse in net but he isn’t going to be an upgrade for most teams.

It’s a great day for hockey.

Fellow Hockeybuzz bloggers Nashville Predator's Paul McCann, Winnipeg Jet's Peter Tessier and Minnesota Wild's Dan Wallace have generously agreed to a friendly charity wager. We were hoping to do the whole division but don't have it fully represented yet. The blogger whose team finishes the highest the standings at the end of the year gets to pick a charity to whom the others donate in their name.
Join the Discussion: » 17 Comments » Post New Comment
More from Jason Millen
» There is no quit in these Blues
» Helter Skelter Game 3
» Blues play a stronger game two and keys to game three
» Blues play weak in Game One
» Often less is more at the trade deadline